The central tension in 95835 is a still-elevated current asking-rent reading after a recent retreat. The five-digit label 95835 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s current ZORI is $2,688 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Its exact same-month annualized path is -1.27% over one year, +1.23% over three years, and +3.48% over five years. Thus, the recent direction breaks from the longer expansion rather than confirming it, and these backward-looking measurements do not forecast the next move.
The direct ZIP resale reading provides a related but separate cooling signal. Redfin’s rolling three-month 95835 for-sale observation shows a $543,377 median sold price, down 0.30% year over year, alongside 160 homes sold and a 32-day median marketing time. It reported 329 active listings, up 19.37%, while its inventory measure was 143 homes, up 2.14%; there were also 167 pending sales and 2.7 months of supply. Sellers received 99.22% of list price on average, 20.53% of sales closed above list, and 26.93% went off market quickly. This is resale-market evidence, not rental transaction evidence. The 5.94% annualized-ZORI-to-median-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio, not an operating or expected-return measure; modest price slippage and more listings broadly echo rent cooling, while the completed-sales pace prevents treating that tension as a one-directional market signal.
Income and renter-cost evidence sharpen the affordability distinction. The matched ACS five-year survey reports $114,468 median household income, while applying the arithmetic 30% screen to the current $2,688 asking index produces $107,520 of required annual income. That is an affordability screen only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS median gross rent was $2,210, including selected utilities, so the Zillow asking index stands 21.6% higher than the survey median of occupied renter homes. Among the ACS renter households with burden data, 56.3% paid 30% or more of income toward rent. The gap between current asking evidence and occupied-home gross-rent evidence is material, but neither statistic proves the costs or burden of a particular available unit.
The ACS housing-stock picture describes the ZCTA’s resident base rather than a live availability feed. It counted 15,908 housing units and 15,071 occupied units, producing a 5.3% overall vacancy rate. Renter households made up 30.1% of occupied homes, and ACS identified 403 vacant units for rent. These figures help frame the scale of renter occupancy and the reported vacant-for-rent pool, but they do not establish that any specific listing is vacant, habitable, competitively priced, or available on the same lease terms as the ZORI index. The survey’s stated margins of error also matter when comparing household and renter counts.
The bedroom ladder should be read as a model, not as a set of observed bedroom rents. Using the local HUD bedroom ladder to scale the ZIP’s ZORI produces a modelled monthly sequence from studio through four bedrooms of $2,082, $2,186, $2,688, $3,578, and $4,127, in that order. The two-bedroom modelled figure equals the all-type ZORI because that bedroom level is the scaling base. HUD Fair Market Rent or Small Area Fair Market Rent is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent series, so these estimates are useful for a consistent size-adjustment exercise but cannot replace direct unit-level rental comparables.
Broader comparisons place the ZIP’s rent level above each supplied wider-area benchmark, but those benchmarks remain context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence. Sacramento city context rent was lower than the ZIP index, as were the Sacramento County context rent and the Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA metro context rent. In the same sentence of interpretation, the city scope, county scope, and metro scope must remain distinct: each covers a broader population and housing mix than 95835. Their lower rent readings support the conclusion that the ZIP index is comparatively elevated within these supplied contexts, without demonstrating why that difference exists or how any individual property will perform.
The history record supports reasonably complete measurement but not certainty around a current quote. Zillow’s completed ZIP history has 100% coverage, and its monthly-return sequence translates to 2.45% annualized variability. That amount of movement means the current index should be treated as a timely benchmark rather than a precise fixed price for every rental type. Its maximum drawdown was -2.32%, showing that declines occurred even during the longer positive path. In the national comparison of history-eligible ZIPs, the transparent discovery ranks were 2,454 for momentum, 590 for stability, and 1,865 for balanced history, where lower rank is higher. The stronger stability placement fits a less erratic series, while the weaker momentum placement aligns with the recent cooling classification.
Several limits remain decisive before applying these ZIP-wide indicators to a property. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin observes only ZIP resale activity; none is a property ledger. A property-level review should verify the exact advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, concessions, lease length, availability date, condition, and whether the listing remains active. For a resale comparison, verify the individual sale price, list-price history, dates, and relevant property characteristics rather than applying the ZIP median mechanically. The unresolved question is whether a specific unit’s documented terms resemble the modelled and survey benchmarks closely enough for this broad ZIP evidence to be informative.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index remains elevated, but the latest one-year same-month change is negative while the three- and five-year histories remain positive. That combination makes recent cooling the primary signal rather than a continuation of the earlier growth path. History is complete in the supplied record, yet it remains descriptive and backward-looking rather than predictive.","title":"Rent trend has cooled despite multiyear growth"},{"body":"The Zillow asking-rent index exceeds ACS median gross rent, and the ACS measure includes selected utilities for occupied renter homes. This comparison indicates a meaningful source-and-population gap, not a contradiction. Current advertised rentals, occupied homes, rental-type mix, timing, and utility treatment differ, so neither figure should be substituted for a quoted unit price.","title":"Asking rent sits above occupied-home gross rent"},{"body":"The direct Redfin ZIP resale observation shows a small year-over-year price decline and more active listings, which are consistent with the rent history’s recent cooling. At the same time, completed sales, pending sales, limited months of supply, and near-list sale outcomes show ongoing for-sale activity. Those observations concern resale liquidity only, not rental demand or property economics.","title":"Resale signals echo cooling but retain transaction activity"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow index with the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, lease quotes, or direct rental comparables. HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, while Zillow tracks asking-rent observations, so the ladder is best used to organize unit-size questions for further verification.","title":"Bedroom figures are standard-scaled estimates"}],"risks":["A blended ZIP asking-rent index can diverge from the rent of a particular available home because bedroom count, utility inclusion, concessions, lease duration, condition, and listing status are not supplied at unit level.","ACS gross rent and rent-burden measures are survey estimates for occupied renter homes, not current asking listings, and their margins of error mean small apparent differences should not be overinterpreted.","A ZIP-wide vacancy rate and vacant-for-rent count do not prove availability, turnover, pricing pressure, or suitability for any particular unit, especially where the specific listing terms are unknown.","The Redfin price, inventory, marketing-time, and sale-to-list figures describe direct for-sale transactions only; using them to infer rental transactions, operating costs, or individual-property financial outcomes would exceed the evidence."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different populations and concepts. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level index of typical observed asking rents blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a multi-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, occupancy status, utility treatment, and rental composition can all create a gap without making either source incorrect.","q":"Why does the current rent reading differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates that scale the all-type ZIP Zillow index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. The construction creates a consistent bedroom-size pattern, but it does not observe advertised or signed rents by bedroom count. A reader should compare those estimates with exact property-level quotes, utility terms, concessions, and lease conditions.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for 95835?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the direct ZIP median sold price from Redfin. The result is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio that places current asking-rent scale beside resale-price scale. It excludes expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy experience, property quality, and unit matching, so it cannot establish a property-level financial result.","q":"What does the rent-to-price screening ratio show?"},{"a":"The negative one-year rent change and slight year-over-year median sale-price decline both point to recent cooling in their separate series. However, the resale data also show completed and pending sales, limited supply, and near-list sale outcomes. The appropriate reading is a mixed, backward-looking ZIP signal, not a forecast or a conclusion about any individual rental or sale.","q":"How should the recent rent decline be read alongside the resale data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1505.849721},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1517.565704},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1520.36236},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1528.091577},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1527.552831},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1538.173179},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1543.695018},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1545.631306},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1548.207356},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1553.954576},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1567.604414},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1584.478673},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1598.788191},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1601.862033},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1605.335538},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1620.427048},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1641.281676},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1653.99247},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1654.200683},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1664.168156},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1676.512223},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1693.175602},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1707.641637},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1699.426803},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1715.861508},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1734.528638},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1766.029514},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1756.035055},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1766.806841},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1772.889752},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1797.069725},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1799.984503},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1811.032534},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1821.955369},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1814.569361},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1827.518321},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1821.181619},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1824.451388},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1831.82631},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1849.552552},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1868.905963},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1875.69819},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1868.037744},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1881.689153},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1900.961834},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1915.873604},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1934.688138},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1950.80891},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1943.675531},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1951.123894},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1950.011057},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1959.468902},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1956.331596},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1967.487568},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1983.84857},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1992.612771},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1992.269172},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1994.719429},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":2003.7031},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":2009.558754},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2038.093953},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2050.95454},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2054.499145},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2031.996442},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2024.176923},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":2038.243306},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2057.247065},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2097.840661},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2121.226838},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2146.140849},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2161.899821},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2155.643832},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2160.77969},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2162.039538},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2160.156783},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2187.16142},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2208.040676},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2264.893339},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2315.262773},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2382.395283},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2425.12704},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2432.778588},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2436.933559},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2444.235405},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2475.341204},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2468.206081},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2499.704616},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2505.053203},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2534.149789},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2518.606741},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2513.973567},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2479.939086},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2477.499384},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2506.080709},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2528.556126},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2548.425314},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2555.385888},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2593.843364},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2594.510639},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2588.001636},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2579.997862},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2591.243475},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2584.76043},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2560.389243},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2545.397493},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2534.431958},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2553.098322},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2581.479547},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2587.518872},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2598.492822},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2593.465809},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2643.769463},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2657.670623},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2671.38857},{"period":"2024-07-0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