Cooling is the central tension in 97006: Zillow’s June 2026 Observed Rent Index (ZORI) is $1,841 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quote for an available home. Through that same month, the exact same-month series fell 2.05% over 1 year, was effectively unchanged over 3 years, and still recorded a 2.71% annualized gain over 5 years. The recent decline therefore breaks from the longer positive path, rather than confirming it. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.30%, and the largest peak-to-trough drawdown was −4.26%; history coverage was 100%. Complete coverage supports the calculation, but variation and drawdown mean a current index reading deserves more confidence as a point-in-time benchmark than as a stable trajectory.
The backward-looking record has national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs of 2,697 for momentum, 411 for stability, and 2,011 for balanced performance; a lower rank is higher. These transparent classifications are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations, and they do not establish what a future lease will ask. The five-digit 97006 label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the reporting match supports comparison but does not convert a survey estimate into a USPS delivery-area count. That geographic distinction is especially important when a listing’s address lies near a boundary.
The matched Census ZCTA supplies a separate ACS 2024 five-year survey universe: occupied renter homes, not current listings. Its median gross rent is $1,959 and includes selected utilities; the Zillow index is 6.0% below that ACS median. The gap is a scope difference, not evidence that either source is wrong: ACS describes reported gross rent among occupied renters, while ZORI tracks a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS estimates 10,734 renter-occupied homes, with 4,751 households paying 30% or more of income toward rent, a 44.3% burden share. That aggregate burden describes surveyed renter households; it neither proves the expense load nor the rent of a particular home.
Bedroom detail needs an even firmer boundary. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its $1,922 two-bedroom reference establishes the local scaling relationship. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that ladder produces an ordered studio-to-four-bedroom sequence of modelled monthly estimates: $1,504, $1,606, $1,841, $2,509, and $2,978. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents or advertised unit medians. The ladder preserves HUD’s local bedroom relationships around the ZIP index, but it cannot reveal the features, utilities, lease terms, condition, concessions, or timing attached to an individual listing.
An arithmetic affordability screen based on the monthly ZORI yields $73,640 in annual income at 30% of income. This is a math screen only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; it assumes the index level is the relevant monthly housing payment, even though an actual payment can differ. For context, the ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $104,790, and the annualized index equals 21.1% of that median. The comparison offers a broad income-to-index reference, not a distribution of tenant incomes or a finding that a household can afford a specific unit. The ACS burden result remains the more direct survey description of how renter households reported their housing-cost load.
Housing composition frames how much weight to give aggregate rent and burden signals. The ZCTA reports 19,880 housing units, a 56.1% renter share among occupied homes, and a 3.8% overall vacancy rate. Single-family units exceed units in large multifamily buildings, indicating that the stock is not solely apartment-based even though renter occupancy is the larger occupied tenure. The dataset also records homes vacant for rent, but a vacancy category is not proof that a particular unit is available, competitively priced, or offered with concessions. Nor does the areawide burden share establish a landlord’s screening standard, a household’s budget, or any given property’s operating condition. These are stock-level and household-level measures, respectively.
Wider geography gives differently scoped benchmarks: the citywide Beaverton rent context is $1,871, the countywide Washington County rent context is $1,911, and the metro-wide Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA rent context is $1,805. Thus the ZIP sits below the named city and county contexts but above the named metro context; each is a wider-area benchmark, not a substitute for ZIP evidence. Before attaching the index or modelled ladder to a property, verify the advertised asking rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, availability date, concessions, and the exact address’s ZIP assignment. Do those listing-specific facts align with the source universe being used, rather than merely with a broad benchmark?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP index is $1,841. Same-month history shows a 2.05% one-year decline, little net three-year movement, and a 2.71% annualized five-year gain. Annualized variability of 2.30% and a −4.26% maximum drawdown support a cooling characterization, but the fully covered historical series remains backward-looking and does not forecast future asking rents.","title":"Cooling after a longer gain"},{"body":"ZORI and ACS should not be read as competing measures. ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index across rental types, whereas the matched ACS ZCTA five-year survey reports gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The $1,959 ACS median exceeds the $1,841 index, a difference that follows from their populations and construction rather than a direct pricing discrepancy.","title":"Different rent universes"},{"body":"FY2026 HUD’s two-bedroom standard is $1,922, while the ZIP-scaled two-bedroom model estimate is $1,841. The same methodology yields estimates from $1,504 for a studio to $2,978 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not asking rent, and the bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not observed bedroom-specific rent measurements.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled"},{"body":"At the 30% arithmetic screen, $73,640 in annual income corresponds to the monthly ZIP index, versus a $104,790 ZCTA ACS median household income. The ZCTA also reports a 56.1% renter share and a 3.8% overall vacancy rate. These aggregates cannot establish an individual household’s budget, a unit’s availability, or a property’s screening rules.","title":"Affordability and stock are aggregate measures"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, and its historical cooling is backward-looking; neither identifies unit condition, included utilities, concessions, lease length, availability, or the next asking rent at a specific address.","The ACS ZCTA is a statistical approximation rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year occupied-renter survey can differ in timing, sampled households, and utility treatment from current listed rental inventory.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom standards. Scaling ZORI by that ladder creates modelled estimates, so observed bedroom rents can differ when a property’s features, condition, utilities, or lease terms differ.","Vacancy and rent-burden figures are aggregate measures; neither establishes that a particular listing is vacant, affordable to a particular household, or subject to any particular screening practice or concession."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,841 June 2026 ZORI is Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index for the ZIP, blended across rental types. It is useful as a current market benchmark, but it is not a signed-lease rent, a guarantee of a listing price, or a bedroom-specific observed median.","q":"What does the current ZIP rent figure measure?"},{"a":"The ACS figure comes from the matched ZCTA’s 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents. Because the populations, timing, and rent definitions differ, the $1,959 ACS median and $1,841 Zillow index should be compared as distinct measures, not reconciled as the same market quote.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent higher than the Zillow index?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates obtained by scaling the $1,841 ZORI with the local FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. They preserve the administrative bedroom relationships in that ladder, but they are not measured asking rents or observed bedroom medians for actual listings.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for available units?"},{"a":"Before using a benchmark for a particular home, the relevant facts are its advertised asking rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, availability date, concessions, and exact ZIP assignment. Those checks address the gap between aggregate ZIP, ZCTA, HUD, city, county, and metro measures and a specific offered unit.","q":"What property-level facts remain necessary for comparison?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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