ZIP 97045’s clearest current tension is a cooling asking-rent index beside a resale record that does not show matching price weakness. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is $1,950 per month, down 1.9% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a survey of occupied tenants, a utility-inclusive contract-rent series, or a bedroom-specific quote. That distinction matters because the decline is an index movement, not evidence that every available unit was repriced. The immediate rent reading is therefore softer than its own prior year, while the evidence needed to test any particular home remains property-specific.
The longer ZORI record makes the recent negative change a break from, rather than a continuation of, the prior path. Exact same-month annualized changes were -1.9% over one year, 1.3% over three years, and 3.0% over five years. The backward-looking history has 100% coverage. The annualized variability of monthly ZORI returns was 2.7%, leaving more confidence in the reported snapshot as a current measure than in any claim of a precise durable level. The maximum drawdown was 3.6%, calculated from peak to subsequent trough and separately indicating the extent of historical retreat. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,511 for momentum, 982 for stability, and 2,176 for balanced performance; lower ranks are stronger. These measurements describe the past, not a forecast or an investment recommendation.
The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,704 among occupied renter homes; this measure includes selected utilities and lies 14.4% below current ZORI. It speaks to surveyed households over a multiyear period, not today’s advertised stock. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,922. That is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and should not be treated as a direct rental comparable. These sources can be used for context only after retaining their different universes and timing.
To make bedroom context visible without pretending to observe bedroom rents, the current ZIP ZORI is scaled by the local HUD ladder. The resulting modelled monthly estimates are $1,593 for a studio, $1,701 for one bedroom, $1,950 for two bedrooms, $2,657 for three bedrooms, and $3,154 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The calculation uses HUD’s relative bedroom structure to distribute a blended Zillow index, so it preserves neither a property’s actual size, condition, lease terms, utility treatment, nor its advertised rent. The two-bedroom result happens to align with the blended index because of the scaling method; that alignment does not validate any individual two-bedroom listing.
Income screening provides a second tension. Annualizing the ZIP index produces a required household income of $78,000 at the 30% screen. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Against the matched ACS median household income of $103,573, the same simple annual rent-to-income calculation is 22.6%, before property-level utility, household-size, and income-distribution differences. Yet 49.7% of ACS renter households reported paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent. The contrast means a ZIP-level median-income screen cannot stand in for renter-level affordability or prove burden at a particular unit. For wider context only, Oregon City’s city-context rent was effectively the same as ZIP ZORI, while Clackamas County’s county-context rent was $1,896 and the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA metro-context rent was $1,805; none replaces direct ZIP evidence.
The ACS ZCTA stock picture is ownership dominated: the vacancy rate is 4.3% and the renter share is 25.2% among occupied units. Single-family structures represent 76.5% of the housing stock, while large multifamily structures are a small component. Vacancy is a Census stock classification in a five-year survey, not a current leasing feed, and it does not establish that a given vacant home is rentable, available, or priced near ZORI. Nor does the renter-burden statistic identify the condition, size, or lease terms of any unit. These limits keep stock, occupancy, and affordability evidence informative at the area level without turning them into property claims.
Direct ZIP resale evidence points in a different direction from the one-year rent cooling, but it remains strictly for-sale evidence. In Redfin’s direct rolling three-month ZIP observation, the median sold price was $606,363, up 0.4% year over year; 183 homes sold with a median 14 days on market. Reported inventory was 168 homes and months of supply stood at 2.8. The average sale-to-list result was 100.12%, with 37.1% of sales above list, signals from resale transactions rather than rental transactions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by this median sold price is 3.9%, solely a cross-source screening ratio rather than property economics. Near-flat but positive resale pricing, short marketing time, and the reported supply level challenge any reading that a softer rent index necessarily coincides with broad resale slack.
Every source imposes a different limit: ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is an estimate of occupied renter homes with survey uncertainty and selected utilities, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin describes resale rather than rental transactions. A property-level review would need the actual advertised rent, effective lease date, concessions, utility responsibility, bedroom and bathroom count, livable area, condition, and availability before comparing a unit with the modelled ladder. It would also need transaction-specific sale date, property type, condition, listing history, and sale terms before relating a home to the resale median. No index, burden share, vacancy classification, or rent-to-price screen resolves those checks. The remaining question is whether the subject property’s current quote and facts fit any of these area-level benchmarks without assuming they are direct comparables?
","findings":[{"body":"Current ZIP ZORI is lower than one year ago even though the same-month three-year and five-year records remain positive. The current negative reading therefore breaks the longer historical direction. Complete history coverage supports measurement continuity, while monthly variability and the recorded drawdown mean the current index should be treated as a snapshot, not a durable rent level or forecast.","title":"Recent rent direction breaks from the longer record"},{"body":"ZCTA income and burden data describe occupied renter households, whereas Zillow tracks advertised asking rent. The arithmetic required-income screen is below the area’s median household income, yet nearly half of renter households are burdened under ACS gross-rent definitions. That divergence prevents a ZIP median from establishing any applicant’s ability to pay or the burden associated with a particular property.","title":"Median-income screening and renter burden diverge"},{"body":"The bedroom amounts are modelled from the current blended ZIP index and local HUD ladder. They create a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom comparison, but they are not observed bedroom rents. Actual unit configuration, quality, utilities, lease terms, and availability can depart from both the model and the HUD administrative standard.","title":"The bedroom ladder is a model, not rent-comp evidence"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation shows slightly higher year-over-year median pricing, fast marketing time, and sale-to-list results around list price while the asking-rent index declined. These conditions inhabit different transaction universes. The rent-to-price calculation can screen cross-source scale only; it does not establish property income, sale comparability, or any outcome for an individual asset.","title":"Resale liquidity does not mirror the cooling rent index"}],"risks":["ZORI combines rental types and reflects observed asking-rent conditions, so it can differ from quoted rent for a specific property, effective rent after concessions, signed lease rent, and utility treatment.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical survey geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS estimates summarize five years of occupied households with sampling uncertainty rather than current listings.","HUD standards and the bedroom ladder are administrative and modelled constructs; neither measures actual bedrooms, floor area, condition, utilities, timing, concessions, or availability for a subject unit.","Redfin measures a rolling resale window, not rental transactions. A ZIP median sale price, marketing statistics, and rent-to-price screen cannot substitute for property-specific sale comparables, costs, terms, or cash flows."],"qa":[{"a":"The current figure is Zillow’s ZIP ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It summarizes advertised-rent conditions at ZIP scope, not signed leases, occupied-household payments, utility-inclusive gross rent, or the rent actually offered for a particular dwelling.","q":"What exactly does the current rent number represent?"},{"a":"The required-income figure simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and applies a 30% mathematical threshold. It does not observe any household’s income, other obligations, utilities, lease terms, or application result. ACS burden statistics use surveyed renter households and gross rent, so they answer a different area-level question.","q":"Why does the income screen not settle affordability?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates that scale the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. This procedure apportions one blended asking-rent index; it does not collect actual rents by bedroom count. A subject unit’s size, quality, utilities, concessions, and timing must be checked separately.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"No. Redfin records ZIP for-sale outcomes in a rolling three-month period, including a resale median and liquidity signals, not operating income or rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by that median only aligns two aggregate sources for screening. It omits property condition, rents, expenses, financing, and transaction-specific terms.","q":"Can the sale data be read as a rental investment return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1500.981323},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1498.646632},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1501.157594},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1484.383535},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1507.296205},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1508.319683},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1530.742175},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1537.671073},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1552.797375},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1569.157764},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1585.929962},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1601.541203},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1613.543873},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1632.773621},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1656.208881},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1679.338448},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1695.887381},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1708.272446},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1724.426547},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1739.982674},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1744.969724},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1745.217056},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1735.180288},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1735.045629},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1738.368204},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1770.338556},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1812.532999},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1845.878336},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1848.673799},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1864.046563},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1890.112213},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1901.264149},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1911.726916},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1906.542405},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1923.524812},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1944.922819},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1949.039366},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1932.339206},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1890.064748},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1878.132269},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1885.305731},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1896.163882},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1883.31055},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1888.830082},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1894.657155},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1913.976153},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1922.752927},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1930.984317},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1948.990339},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1962.781443},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1980.174245},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1975.916754},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1967.56129},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1960.2149},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1963.967734},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1970.290933},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1976.701901},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1986.187638},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1988.560567},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1974.823236},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1968.507109},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1964.413741},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1966.488076},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1986.58123},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1996.419162},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2000.071621},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2003.718363},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1998.1954},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1991.991153},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1979.255966},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1972.324826},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1975.794248},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1971.425817},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1969.606587},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1964.874403},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1949.803377}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":76,"firstPeriod":"2020-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":76,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1986.58123,"endRent":1949.803377,"change":-0.01851313827222667,"cagr":-0.01851313827222667},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1878.132269,"endRent":1949.803377,"change":0.03816084158873467,"cagr":0.012561820447656524},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1679.338448,"endRent":1949.803377,"change":0.16105444934111346,"cagr":0.030316173864730178}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03638053609226077,"annualizedVolatility":0.02654850195776638,"consecutiveReturnCount":75}}