At June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 97202 is $1,622 per month. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quoted lease price for a specified home. The same-month 1-year change is −0.01%, following annualized same-month gains of 0.97% across 3 years and 2.53% across 5 years. The slight recent decline therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer positive path, which is the central cooling tension in this record. Because it pools rental types, it functions as a ZIP reference point rather than a separately observed series for comparable homes. It describes what the index has measured, not the price, availability, utilities, or concession package attached to a listing.
The history gives context for that break without turning it into a forecast. Direct Zillow ZIP observations through the stated endpoint have 100% coverage. The annualized variability of monthly returns is 2.22%, and the maximum drawdown is −2.71%. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower is higher, are 317 for stability, 2,271 for momentum, and 1,489 for the balanced measure. Lower measured variability makes a broad current index snapshot less vulnerable to month-to-month noise than a volatile series, but the newly negative direction and mixed rental composition mean it remains only moderate evidence for a particular property. It provides no explanation for movement and no information about future listings. All of these are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source separation matters more here than any single dollar gap. The five-digit label 97202 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. In that matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 5-year monthly median gross rent is $1,705; the ZORI sits 4.87% below it on a cross-source calculation. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS is a 5-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities; ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index. HUD is a third universe: the FY2026 local 2-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $1,922 per month, an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Both are useful, but they answer different questions over different observation frames. None of the gaps establishes that a particular unit is mispriced or includes particular services.
The bedroom view should be read as a translation tool, not a rent survey. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,325 for a studio, $1,415 for one bedroom, $1,622 for two bedrooms, $2,210 for three bedrooms, and $2,624 for four bedrooms. The ladder preserves HUD’s relative bedroom steps while retaining the ZIP’s current blended asking-rent level. Those estimates are internally consistent reference values because their spacing comes from HUD, not from direct ZIP bedroom-rent observations. It does not observe unit condition, floor plan, building type, included utilities, lease timing, or landlord concessions, so it cannot substitute for a matched listing comparison.
Affordability measures point in two directions and must remain aggregate. Annualizing the current index and applying a 30% rent-to-income screen yields $64,880 in annual income; that is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA’s median household income is $104,971, and the cross-aggregate asking-rent-to-income ratio is 18.54%. Yet ACS reports that 48.56% of renter households are rent-burdened at or above that threshold. Household income and burden summarize surveyed households, while ZORI summarizes current observed offerings. The difference between a ZIP-level index-to-income comparison and household survey burden does not resolve affordability for any household, income source, unit size, or lease.
The housing profile provides scale but not a vacancy reading for a specific building. The ZCTA-wide vacancy rate is 4.46%, and renters account for 49.89% of occupied homes. Its stock includes 12,323 single-family units and 3,223 units in large multifamily structures, indicating that the index and survey medians span more than one housing form. The split provides composition context but does not state the number, rent, or condition of currently marketed homes. Area vacancy is a stock measure, not proof that an advertised unit is available, competitive, or eligible at a given price. Likewise, burden is a household-level survey result and cannot identify a current tenant’s payment situation.
For wider—not substitutable—context, Portland city context monthly rent is $1,720.84, Multnomah County context monthly rent is $1,688, and Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA metro context monthly rent is $1,805; each exceeds the ZIP’s current index. These city, county, and metro values are broader context only, not ZIP evidence. No property-level listing record is provided in this packet. Before interpreting the gap for a real property, the concrete checks are the advertised price, bedroom count, address geography, available date, lease term, included utilities, fees, concessions, and confirmation that the unit remains available. Which of those property facts would materially change the comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,622, essentially unchanged from the same month a year earlier after positive annualized changes over three and five years. The recent direction therefore departs from the longer historical trajectory. Full history coverage and low annualized return variability help contextualize the index, but neither turns the current pause into a forecast or a property-level price estimate.","title":"Cooling is recent, not the full history"},{"body":"ACS and Zillow should not be collapsed into a single rent fact. The ZCTA ACS median gross rent is survey-based, reflects occupied renter homes, and includes selected utilities, while ZORI captures blended observed asking rents. The ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD’s FMR/SAFMR adds an administrative standard, not a market asking-rent observation.","title":"The comparison is a source question"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI. They preserve relative bedroom spacing but are not measured bedroom rents and cannot identify a building’s unit mix, condition, utility treatment, lease terms, fees, or concessions. A listing comparison needs a matching bedroom count and current property-specific terms.","title":"Bedroom figures are a model"},{"body":"Area-level indicators show a mixed aggregate picture: the income screen sits below the ZCTA median household income, yet nearly half of renter households meet the burden threshold. Vacancy, renter share, and structure mix provide market-wide composition context, not evidence about the availability or affordability of a named unit. City, county, and metro rents remain only wider-scope comparison points.","title":"Area aggregates require unit-level verification"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR are distinct measurement systems with different populations, utility treatment, timing, and purposes; their level gaps cannot validate a particular advertised rent.","A fully covered historical series still records only past index behavior. Its measured variability and recent cooling do not establish future rent direction, property performance, demand conditions, or investment outcomes.","Modelled bedroom estimates inherit the HUD relative bedroom ladder and a blended ZIP index. They are not direct observations, so mismatch in unit type, condition, utilities, or concessions can be material.","ZCTA vacancy, structure mix, household income, and burden are area aggregates. They cannot prove a unit is vacant, affordable to a particular household, correctly located, or offered on stated terms."],"qa":[{"a":"The series observe different universes. ZORI is an index of typical observed asking rents across blended rental types, while ACS reports a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The comparison is informative about measurement scope, not a verdict that either value is the correct price for a unit.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent above ZORI?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates obtained by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The approach makes studio through four-bedroom figures internally comparable, but it does not measure an available apartment, identify included utilities, or capture current concessions, lease terms, or building condition.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rental medians?"},{"a":"It annualizes the current ZIP asking-rent index and divides by 30%, producing an arithmetic reference point. It is not financial advice, an affordability determination, or an applicant qualification standard. The ACS burden rate describes surveyed renter households instead and cannot predict the result for a named household or lease.","q":"What does the required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"Portland city, Multnomah County, and Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro metro values are wider-scope context, not replacements for ZIP evidence. They can frame the scale of the ZIP reading, but property interpretation still depends on the listed price, bedroom count, address geography, move-in timing, utilities, fees, concessions, lease term, and availability confirmation.","q":"How should city, county, and metro figures be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD 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