Rather than a sharp rent signal, ZIP 97236 enters June 2026 with a modestly rising asking-rent index. Zillow places the typical observed asking-rent index, ZORI, at $1,624, up 1.05% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a ZIP-level index of observed asking rents blended across rental types; it is useful for tracking the asking market, but it is not a quote for any listed home or a bedroom-specific measurement. The small annual change makes the current level more informative as a broad market reference than as evidence that every available lease has moved alike. Its strength here is timeliness and ZIP specificity, while individual listing terms still require direct verification.
The backward-looking path adds a deceleration: exact same-month annualized change was 1.05% over 1-year, 1.77% over 3-years and 3.94% over 5-years. Recent direction remains positive and therefore confirms, rather than breaks from, the longer upward path, but it is much slower than both multi-year rates. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.20%, and the maximum observed drawdown was 1.40%; 98.51% history coverage supports a broad reading but does not eliminate gaps. On transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum ranked 1,814, stability 1,914, and balanced performance 2,168, where a lower rank is higher. These measures are descriptions through the stated endpoint, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Modest variability and limited drawdown provide some confidence in a current index snapshot, but the slowdown limits confidence that one month captures a persistent pace.
Near parity between two rent series is informative but not interchangeability. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,635 median gross rent, with a $86 margin of error, for occupied renter homes in the matched 97236 ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS gross rent includes selected utilities and reflects occupied homes over a survey period, so its value is 0.7% above the current Zillow index without establishing that new listings cost the same. HUD’s FY 2026 two-bedroom FMR standard is $1,922. FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and it should not be used as a direct substitute for either the Zillow index or ACS gross rent.
To give a usable size ladder without pretending to observe bedroom rents, the ZIP ZORI is scaled by the local HUD bedroom ladder. The resulting modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $1,327 for a studio, $1,417 for one bedroom, $1,624 for two bedrooms, $2,213 for three bedrooms, and $2,627 for four bedrooms. They preserve the ZIP index as the anchor and use HUD’s relative size pattern; they are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. A listed unit can differ because its asking price, included utilities, lease conditions, or characteristics are not captured by this scaling. The ladder is best read as a proportional orientation tool alongside a current, like-for-like listing comparison.
Income and burden provide a different tension: the index is below the local median income screen, while many surveyed renter households report meaningful cost pressure. Applying the 30% screen arithmetically to $1,624 for a full year gives required annual income of $64,960, compared with ACS median household income of $75,090; annualized index rent equals 26.0% of that median income. This screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS estimates that 3,224 of 5,429 renter households, or 59.4%, met that threshold. That burden statistic describes surveyed occupied renter households, includes the ACS gross-rent definition, and cannot prove affordability, payment history, or utility treatment for a particular unit.
The ACS housing count sets useful boundaries on availability claims. Of 13,673 housing units, 619 were vacant, yielding a 4.5% vacancy rate; vacancy is a status count, not proof that a particular unit is rentable, priced at the index, or currently available. Single-family homes are the largest reported structure category, while large multifamily buildings form a separate reported category. The total vacancy figure includes rental, sale, seasonal, and other statuses, so it cannot be treated as an apartment-vacancy rate or as evidence of supply for a chosen bedroom size. These ACS stock measures are survey estimates rather than a live inventory feed.
Broader geography places the ZIP rent below each named reference, but the ZIP measurement is not interchangeable with any of them. Portland city context reports about $1,721 rent, Multnomah County context reports $1,688, and the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA metro context reports $1,805; these are wider context values, not ZIP measurements. The comparisons reinforce that ZIP-level conditions must not be inferred from city, county, or metro aggregates. Before using this report for a property decision, check the active asking rent, exact bedroom count, included and excluded utilities, lease length, availability date, unit condition, and whether the address lies within the applicable geography. Does the active listing’s price, bedroom count, utility treatment, terms, and address match the relevant benchmark?
","findings":[{"body":"At the June 2026 endpoint, the Zillow ZIP asking-rent index was $1,624. Exact same-month annualized gains decelerated from 3.94% over five years to 1.77% over three years and 1.05% over one year. The sequence remains positive, extending rather than reversing the longer path, but the current pace is slower. It describes history, not a forward rent call.","title":"Rent growth has decelerated"},{"body":"ACS and Zillow are close in level but do not measure the same universe. ACS puts matched-ZCTA median gross rent at $1,635 and includes selected utilities for occupied renter homes over five years. Zillow’s $1,624 index tracks typical observed asking rents across rental types. The $1,922 HUD two-bedroom standard is administrative and bedroom-specific, so it is neither a current asking-rent quote nor an ACS replacement.","title":"Source universes remain distinct"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom values are modelled ZIP estimates produced by scaling the blended Zillow index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They supply a consistent proportional range, from $1,327 to $2,627, but they do not observe completed leases or asking rents by bedroom. A property’s stated bedroom count, utilities, condition, terms, and live asking rent can materially differ from this modelled orientation.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled"},{"body":"Income and stock data identify population-level constraints rather than unit-level outcomes. The arithmetic 30% screen yields $64,960 required income against a $75,090 ACS median household income, while 59.4% of surveyed renter households met the burden threshold. The ACS vacancy rate is 4.5%, yet its categories do not establish whether a specific rental is offered, available, suitable, or affordable.","title":"Burden and vacancy are population measures"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended typical asking-rent index represents a market measure rather than a unit inventory. It may not match a listing’s bedroom configuration, timing, utilities, lease concessions, condition, or other terms.","The ACS evidence comes from a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes. Survey margins of error, geographic mismatch with USPS ZIP delivery areas, and utility inclusion limit direct comparison to live listings.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative benchmark and the bedroom ladder is derived by scaling the ZIP index. Neither figure is a measured bedroom-specific asking rent or a promise about a specific lease.","Historical returns, ranks, drawdown, and variability summarize observed past Zillow data. Coverage is high but incomplete, and neither history nor aggregate vacancy and burden data establish future rents or availability."],"qa":[{"a":"The June 2026 $1,624 figure is Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is intended as an asking-market reference. It does not state a specific listing’s available rent, included utilities, bedroom count, contract terms, condition, or actual tenant payment.","q":"What does the current Zillow figure represent?"},{"a":"The ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent describes occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. ZORI describes observed asking rents at ZIP level. The close values are useful context, but different timing, geography, populations, and rent definitions prevent a unit-level equivalence.","q":"Why is the ACS value not directly interchangeable with ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. Each takes the current ZIP ZORI as its anchor and applies the local HUD bedroom ladder’s relative pattern. They are not survey medians, lease observations, or direct listing averages for bedroom-specific inventory.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts measured rents?"},{"a":"The required-income calculation simply divides annualized index rent by the 30% screen, and it is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The burden share summarizes surveyed renter households. Vacancy is an ACS status measure, while growth, drawdown, and variability describe past ZORI observations. None identifies an applicant’s qualification, a unit’s availability, or a future rent outcome.","q":"How should the affordability, vacancy, and history figures be read?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1249.357476},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1263.902023},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1306.109645},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1290.197063},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1305.751516},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1306.182533},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1338.578743},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1352.559399},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1390.319643},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1391.141211},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1386.835918},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1397.009775},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1399.548957},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1426.723899},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1420.150866},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1466.933048},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1475.700084},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1503.507133},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1507.466189},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1516.372138},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1503.502347},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1531.745532},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1549.096204},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1552.368867},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1544.307145},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1548.996617},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1533.346847},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1530.692656},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1536.134359},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1540.370509},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1543.166589},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1537.932565},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1537.481467},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1542.244602},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1551.078221},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1564.813181},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1566.42806},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1567.891484},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1570.966669},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1568.89102},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1557.782775},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1551.175584},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1565.364262},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1569.390658},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1576.791591},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1581.050199},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1587.181696},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1585.491417},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1570.882535},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1578.033952},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1588.737582},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1607.738931},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1608.912641},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1606.591222},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1598.495167},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1605.628611},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1604.883755},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1601.765096},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1595.398599},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1595.831843},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1613.405647},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1613.185234},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1611.504666},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1604.577504},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1613.258771},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1623.539377}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":0.9850746268656716,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1606.591222,"endRent":1623.539377,"change":0.010549139549574926,"cagr":0.010549139549574926},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1540.370509,"endRent":1623.539377,"change":0.05399276830740729,"cagr":0.017683055863479957},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1338.578743,"endRent":1623.539377,"change":0.2128829816625888,"cagr":0.039354690872370535}},"maxDrawdown":-0.01396331211014934,"annualizedVolatility":0.03197878155505326,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}