At the supplied Zillow endpoint, ZIP 97266 has a typical observed asking-rent index of $1,781, down 0.7% from the same month a year earlier. This Zillow ZORI reading blends rental types and is an asking-rent index, rather than a lease transaction series or a measure of every unit. Within wider, non-ZIP asking-rent context, the City of Portland scope is $1,721, the Multnomah County scope is $1,688, and the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA metro scope is $1,805. The ZIP therefore sits above the city and county context but below the metro context, while its own latest annual movement is negative.
The recent decline breaks from the longer historical path rather than confirming it. Same-month ZORI change annualized at negative 0.7% over one year, versus gains of 2.1% over three years and 3.8% over five years. Monthly ZORI returns showed 2.6% annualized variability, which is relatively limited movement in the historical sequence and supports more confidence in the broad trend than in any individual listing quote. The maximum historical drawdown was 2.4%, showing that the observed index did experience declines even during its longer expansion. Coverage is complete across 67 observations. National discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,182 for momentum, 815 for stability, and 1,752 for the balanced measure; these are transparent backward-looking discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The current asking-rent index should not be substituted for ACS rent or household affordability measures. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,595 with a $83 margin of error; it surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI is 11.7% higher, an expected scope difference between a current typical asking-rent index and a five-year occupied-home survey median. The ZCTA median household income is $72,577, with a $4,518 margin of error. Applying the 30% screen arithmetically to the current index produces required income of $71,240 and an asking-rent-to-income ratio of 29.4%. This screen is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 57.9% of surveyed renter households report spending at least 30% of income on rent, which does not establish the burden of a particular unit or household.
The bedroom ladder provides modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces monthly estimates of $1,455 for a studio, $1,554 for one bedroom, $1,781 for two bedrooms, $2,427 for three bedrooms, and $2,881 for four bedrooms. The HUD ladder itself ranges from $1,570 for a studio to $3,109 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so the ladder is useful only as the scaling input. The modelled two-bedroom estimate is 7.3% below the local HUD two-bedroom standard, but that difference does not validate a specific available home, its utilities, or its lease terms.
The Census ZCTA evidence describes a statistical area, not a USPS delivery ZIP, even though the five-digit label matches Zillow's ZIP market identifier. The matched ZCTA has an estimated population of 35,423 and contains 13,836 housing units, of which 13,114 are occupied. Its 5.2% vacancy rate is an area-level condition rather than evidence that any particular rental is available or negotiable. Renters occupy 45.9% of occupied homes. Housing stock is weighted toward 9,540 single-family units, compared with 1,299 units in large multifamily structures, and the vacancy inventory includes units classified as for rent. Those figures frame the stock composition behind the ACS renter survey; they do not identify unit quality, turnover, concessions, or the rent of newly marketed housing.
For-sale evidence introduces a different, partly conflicting signal. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $409,907 median sold price, down 4.0% year over year. Even with that price decline, 79 homes sold and the median marketing time was 11 days. Months of supply stood at 4.1, while inventory increased from a year earlier. The average sale-to-list ratio was 100.28%, and 39% of sales closed above list price, signals that must remain in the resale universe rather than being treated as rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is a 5.2% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The central decision tension is a cooling asking-rent index against resale activity that remains comparatively quick and often reaches or exceeds list price. The declining resale median and the negative latest rent movement both support a view that current pricing is softer than the longer rent history. Yet the short resale marketing time and sale-to-list evidence challenge any broad conclusion that demand has disappeared. The affordability screen adds a separate constraint: the current index is near the arithmetic income threshold while the ZCTA burden share is elevated. None of these signals proves a cause, and none can be transferred directly between asking rents, occupied-home survey data, HUD standards, and sold-home transactions.
Several limits should govern use of this ZIP snapshot. ZORI is a blended index rather than a bedroom-specific quote; ACS estimates are survey results for the matched ZCTA; and HUD standards are administrative benchmarks. Redfin is a direct ZIP resale observation, not rental transaction data. The current reading also follows a modest drawdown history and a recent reversal from multi-year growth, so one month of index level should carry less weight than a verified unit-specific asking price and lease structure. Property-level checks should establish bedroom count, included utilities, advertised versus executed rent, fees, concessions, listing timing, condition, occupancy status, and whether a potential sales comparison matches the actual property being evaluated.
","findings":[{"body":"The latest annual ZORI change is negative, while the three-year and five-year same-month measures remain positive. That makes the current decline a break from the longer historical path, not continuation of it. Limited historical monthly variability and a modest maximum drawdown support reading the series as relatively stable, but they do not turn the current index into a forecast.","title":"Recent rent cooling interrupts a longer expansion"},{"body":"Current Zillow asking rent is above the ACS median gross rent for the matched ZCTA, partly because the ACS measure covers occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities. The income screen is arithmetic only. The high ACS rent-burden share identifies area-level household pressure, but cannot prove that a particular available unit is unaffordable.","title":"Affordability signals depend on the evidence universe"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling the ZIP-level ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a consistent way to compare bedroom sizes within the supplied framework, but should never be treated as measured market rents. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard, not a record of asking rents or executed leases.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates, not observed rents"},{"body":"The direct Redfin resale observation shows a lower year-over-year median sold price while homes still sold quickly and the average sale-to-list ratio remained above parity. That tension matters because it complicates a simple weak-demand interpretation of the cooling rent index. Resale activity is a distinct for-sale market and cannot serve as rental transaction evidence.","title":"Resale softness coexists with brisk ZIP transaction signals"}],"risks":["The Zillow ZIP identifier and Census ZCTA share the same five-digit label, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, creating unavoidable boundary and population-scope differences.","A current blended asking-rent index, an ACS occupied-home gross-rent survey measure, and a HUD administrative standard answer different questions. Comparing them without preserving those scopes can create false precision about current unit rents.","The modelled bedroom ladder inherits the ZIP ZORI level and the local HUD scaling relationship. It cannot establish actual bedroom availability, utility treatment, fees, concessions, property condition, or the rent ultimately accepted by a landlord.","Redfin resale figures describe sold homes and market liquidity over a rolling three-month observation, not rental transactions. The rent-price screen omits operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and property-specific characteristics."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow ZORI, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for tracking current asking-rent direction, but it is not a record of executed leases, a bedroom-specific observed rent, or a measure of all occupied renter homes.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure measure?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so the resulting estimates require unit-level verification before comparison with a listing.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual rents for available apartments or houses?"},{"a":"ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA and its median gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a current asking-rent index for the ZIP market. Different timing, populations, and rent definitions mean that the two measures should not be expected to match.","q":"Why can ACS gross rent differ from Zillow asking rent?"},{"a":"It only divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the Redfin ZIP median sold price as a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, property yield, expected return, net return, or valuation result because it does not include operating costs, property features, financing, or actual lease income.","q":"What does the resale rent-price screen establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1397.082102},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1407.078309},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1415.447537},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1433.902366},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1445.752058},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1465.124041},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1476.25891},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1499.756264},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1512.564234},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1536.378903},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1536.599233},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1570.627457},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1584.55631},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1603.564885},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1595.609004},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1602.860814},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1614.892482},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1628.937447},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1643.47468},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1639.5386},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1644.114434},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1633.922075},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1662.62739},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1651.143645},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1646.889522},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1640.314712},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1656.37467},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1668.157417},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1666.811036},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1671.980001},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1673.026806},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1683.098543},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1678.322686},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1686.480008},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1675.051154},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1690.847571},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1681.124894},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1694.186937},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1703.376043},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1710.027013},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1696.8089},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1685.338571},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1700.001641},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1721.832555},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1733.823753},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1749.300129},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1756.183798},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1749.35605},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1765.97477},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1771.795033},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1791.349054},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1778.138599},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1807.790111},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1796.334384},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1793.485041},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1780.296142},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1780.780446},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1774.632549},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1777.404524},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1783.920354},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1783.852303},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1780.845088},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1765.034759},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1774.983295},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1764.526507},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1782.120009},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1781.251852}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1793.485041,"endRent":1781.251852,"change":-0.006820903838249404,"cagr":-0.006820903838249404},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1673.026806,"endRent":1781.251852,"change":0.06468817212723121,"cagr":0.021113794277901166},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1476.25891,"endRent":1781.251852,"change":0.20659854442470404,"cagr":0.038275388229755514}},"maxDrawdown":-0.023931762728842565,"annualizedVolatility":0.025626159056308353,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}