ZIP 97301 enters the June 2026 review with a Zillow ZORI of $1,450 per month, following a 0.6% year-over-year decline. The distinctive decision question is how to use that current ZIP asking-rent signal without treating it as a lease quote, a bedroom-specific observation, or a survey median. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it gives a broad market reference rather than a reading for an identified home. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP; this distinction matters when attaching ZIP-level and survey evidence to a property address.
Size comparisons can be structured before comparing the other rent series. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local FY2026 HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,098 for a studio, $1,116 for one bedroom, $1,450 for two bedrooms, $2,007 for three bedrooms, and $2,173 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents, advertised rents, or completed leases. The shape of the ladder reflects HUD's relative bedroom standards applied to the overall ZIP index; it does not show whether properties at any size are currently available or what their utilities, terms, or conditions are. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent.
The principal rent comparison is intentionally not an apples-to-apples merge. The $1,450 Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level asking-rent index, whereas the matched ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,278 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The Zillow measure stands 13.5% above that survey median, a difference across distinct coverage, timing, and definitions rather than a reconciliation error. Separately, the local FY2026 two-bedroom HUD FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,560, 7.1% above the ZIP ZORI. HUD's figure is an administrative standard, not a measured asking-rent result, and it should not be combined with ACS or Zillow as a single rent average.
The income and burden evidence is also an ACS ZCTA view rather than a tenant-screening file. The ACS median household income is $60,422. For a purely arithmetic 30% required-income screen, the $1,450 monthly ZORI corresponds to $58,000 in annual income; that screen is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. Annualized ZIP asking rent is 28.8% of that general household-income median, which is a broad comparison rather than a renter-income estimate. Of 11,692 occupied renter homes, renters represent 57.2% of occupied homes. Within the ACS burden tabulation, 6,532 of 11,692 renter households, or 55.9%, had gross rent burden of 30% or more. That observed aggregate burden cannot establish affordability or burden for a particular unit.
The matched ZCTA's housing count supplies useful composition but not a listing inventory. It records 21,699 housing units: 20,426 occupied and 1,273 vacant, for a 5.9% vacancy rate. Of the vacant units, 504 are classified for rent and 173 for sale; these classifications describe a survey snapshot and do not prove current availability, price, or suitability for any specific property. The stock includes 12,184 single-family units and 2,059 units reported in large multifamily structures. Those counts describe structure categories used in the aggregate profile, but they do not identify unit sizes, service levels, contract terms, or the condition of homes carrying the observed rent signals.
Wider context places the ZIP's signal alongside, rather than inside, other geographies. At Salem city scope, context rent is $1,585.06; at Marion County scope, context rent is $1,597; and at Salem, OR metro scope, context rent is $1,626. Each city, county, and metro value is wider context only and must keep its named scope; none replaces the ZIP-level Zillow series or the matched-ZCTA ACS survey. The higher context rent figures describe an aggregate comparison, not a conclusion about a particular building, its lease terms, or prospective rent.
Several limits frame the resulting interpretation. Zillow, ACS, and HUD use different dates, populations, and purposes, so their dollar figures should remain in separate evidence universes. The ZCTA-to-delivery-ZIP difference, survey sampling, rental-type blending, and HUD's administrative design each constrain property-level inference. Before relying on these aggregates for a specific address, verify the actual advertised rent, exact bedroom count, included and excluded utilities, lease length, deposits and recurring fees, availability date, and any stated income policy. Also verify the property's geographic assignment and whether the listing's bedroom configuration is comparable with the modelled ladder. Those checks test the unit's actual terms; they do not turn aggregate vacancy, burden, or standard values into facts about that unit.
","findings":[{"body":"The June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,450 monthly, 0.6% below its year-earlier level. It is a typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types, not a quote for a specified property. ZIP 97301 is also the matched Census ZCTA label, but the ZCTA remains a statistical approximation rather than a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Current ZIP asking-rent signal"},{"body":"The local HUD ladder scales the overall ZIP ZORI to modelled estimates from $1,098 for a studio to $2,173 for four bedrooms, with $1,450 at two bedrooms. These are not measured bedroom rents. The HUD FMR/SAFMR inputs are administrative bedroom standards, while Zillow is an asking-rent index, so neither establishes the asking rent for an identified available unit.","title":"Modelled size ladder, not observed unit rents"},{"body":"ACS reports a $1,278 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities, versus a $1,450 ZIP Zillow index. The ACS burden tabulation shows 55.9% of renter households at 30% or more of income toward gross rent. Neither aggregate figure tests an applicant's income, a property's policy, or a specific household's budget.","title":"Survey rent and burden remain separate evidence"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA records 1,273 vacant units, including 504 classified for rent, but survey vacancy categories are not real-time availability. Wider comparison rents are $1,585.06 in Salem city scope, $1,597 in Marion County scope, and $1,626 in Salem, OR metro scope. These geographies provide context only and cannot be substituted for the ZIP measure.","title":"Vacancy composition and broader context"}],"risks":["Zillow's blended ZIP asking-rent index may differ from the rent, unit type, utility treatment, concessions, lease term, and availability of an individual property, so it cannot serve as a listing verification.","The matched ACS ZCTA is a five-year survey statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its occupied-renter results may not align exactly with a property's address or current market terms.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard; scaling ZORI with it creates modelled estimates that should not be interpreted as observed studio through four-bedroom rents.","Vacancy and rent-burden figures are aggregate snapshots. They do not demonstrate that a particular unit is vacant, affordable to a specific household, suitably configured, or available on a requested date."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow's ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, for June 2026. It is valuable as an aggregate current rent signal, but it is not a lease quote, a measured rent for an identified bedroom count, or proof that a specific listing is available at that price.","q":"What does the current $1,450 ZORI measure?"},{"a":"Zillow reports a ZIP-level asking-rent index, while ACS reports a five-year survey median gross rent among occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Their populations, timing, and constructs differ. The gap is informative only when the source universes remain separate rather than averaged or treated as interchangeable.","q":"Why cannot the Zillow and ACS rent figures be merged?"},{"a":"They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates calculated by scaling the overall ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve the ladder's relative structure, not observations from advertised or leased units. Confirm the actual bedroom count, rent, utilities, fees, and lease terms directly for any property under consideration.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be read?"},{"a":"It converts the monthly ZORI into an annual income comparison using a 30% share of income. It is arithmetic only, not advice, a qualification rule, or evidence of a landlord policy. The ACS burden share remains an aggregate observation and cannot determine affordability for an applicant or a single home.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1263.716491},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1276.941468},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1279.620293},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1302.512975},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1332.906032},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1339.607578},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1363.54007},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1377.182447},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1401.551786},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1397.963786},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1399.779107},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1405.509476},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1430.456299},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1433.685335},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1423.210603},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1423.347518},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1430.64207},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1433.736624},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1414.907803},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1405.319411},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1406.996692},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1417.710092},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1415.259615},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1413.750485},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1413.089081},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1419.759665},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1429.6145},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1430.049761},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1421.695793},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1420.724507},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1424.623087},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1445.814263},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1442.334857},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1442.618901},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1441.746307},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1447.189072},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1460.120532},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1458.628143},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1454.329344},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1443.085374},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1450.05118},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1458.458205},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1464.132705},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1454.478298},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1455.541336},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1454.716711},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1459.264712},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1457.755453},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1445.840886},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1445.690418},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1447.848284},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1457.735328},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1455.810329},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1450.146825}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":54,"firstPeriod":"2021-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":55,"coverageRatio":0.9818181818181818,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1458.458205,"endRent":1450.146825,"change":-0.005698744037714754,"cagr":-0.005698744037714754},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1433.736624,"endRent":1450.146825,"change":0.011445756999787893,"cagr":0.003800788041478098}},"maxDrawdown":-0.01982038578376999,"annualizedVolatility":0.02380605864991213,"consecutiveReturnCount":52}}