The latest rent signal in this ZIP is a deceleration rather than an outright fall. Zillow's ZIP-level Observed Rent Index (ZORI) was $1,805 in June 2026, up 1.03% from the same month a year earlier. This is a typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, rather than the price of a specified vacant home. It therefore gives a broad current asking-rent reference, while leaving the actual bedroom count, condition, lease structure, included charges, and availability of any listing unresolved. Its blended construction cannot identify a stable price for one property, even when that property is being actively marketed. The small positive year-over-year movement is most useful when read beside the materially faster earlier annualized path and separate survey and administrative benchmarks below.
History shows why the one-year result deserves a cooling interpretation. Exact same-month annualized change was 1.03% over one year, 3.37% over three years, and 5.59% over five years through the June 2026 history endpoint. The recent direction still confirms positive rent movement, but it breaks from the longer path's progressively faster annualized pace. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.33%, and the maximum drawdown was -2.30%; these backward-looking measurements mean confidence in a single current rent snapshot should be bounded rather than treating it as a precise property-level price. Coverage was 100%, supporting continuity of the historical comparison. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,443 for momentum, 446 for stability, and 740 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. These ranks and changes describe the record, not a forecast or investment recommendation.
The five-digit label 97402 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the match supports comparison but does not make the geographic universes identical. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,357. That is 33.0% below the current ZORI, but it is not a competing asking-rent quote: ACS measures occupied renter homes over five years and gross rent includes selected utilities. Neither source is designed to reproduce the other's leasing universe. The difference can reflect the sources' population, timing, and rent definitions; it cannot by itself establish a current-market change.
HUD provides another separate universe. Its fiscal-year 2026 local bedroom ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,308 for a studio, $1,375 for one bedroom, $1,805 for two bedrooms, $2,511 for three bedrooms, and $3,028 for four bedrooms. Underlying HUD standards are $1,223, $1,286, $1,688, $2,348, and $2,832 in the same bedroom order. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; the two-bedroom result matches the direct index because the ladder-scaling construction anchors it there, not because a measured two-bedroom asking-rent series was observed.
Affordability arithmetic makes the index-to-income tension visible without judging any applicant. ACS ZCTA median household income was $57,658. Annualizing the Zillow index and applying the 30% screen produces required income of $72,200; equivalently, the current asking-rent index is 37.6% of that median household income. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and the all-household income median is not a renter-income measure. Separately, ACS estimates that 6,174 renter households, or 55.4%, paid at least 30% of income toward rent. That burden measure describes surveyed occupied renter households, not a particular unit or a particular household's current payment.
Housing-stock evidence is an ACS ZCTA five-year survey estimate rather than a live inventory. Of 23,691 housing units, 13,497 were single-family units and 1,048 were in large multifamily structures. The total vacancy rate was 4.6%, and neither this aggregate rate nor a vacancy classification proves that a particular unit is advertised, habitable, appropriately sized, or available on a chosen date. Structure categories describe stock composition recorded by the survey, not the turnover or condition of that stock. For wider context only, the Eugene city-context rent was $1,842, the Lane County context rent was $1,789, and the Eugene-Springfield, OR metro-context rent was $1,789. Those city, county, and metro figures frame the ZIP reading but do not replace ZIP-level evidence or establish conditions within an individual property.
Taken together, the packet supports a broad comparison, not a unit valuation. ZORI tracks typical observed asking rent across blended rental types; ACS tracks surveyed occupied homes with selected utilities; and HUD supplies an administrative standard. None reports exact net effective rent, concessions, or total recurring cost for a particular listing. A property-level review can record advertised base rent, bedroom and bathroom configuration, lease term, utility treatment, required recurring fees, deposits and move-in charges, concessions, availability date, and any eligibility or rent restrictions. It can also distinguish a still-marketed listing from an actually available unit. Backward-looking history supplies context for the present index but cannot determine the next reading. Does the property-specific all-in offer resemble the broad index after those terms are verified?
","findings":[{"body":"At June 2026, the ZIP Zillow asking-rent index was $1,805 and its same-month one-year change was 1.03%. The three-year and five-year annualized changes, 3.37% and 5.59%, were higher. That pattern keeps the recent reading positive but identifies cooling relative to the prior longer-run pace. Variability and drawdown mean the index is a broad benchmark, not a precise value for a specific currently available home.","title":"Cooling versus longer-run growth"},{"body":"The $1,805 Zillow ZORI, the $1,357 ACS median gross rent, and the HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder should not be treated as interchangeable. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD is an administrative bedroom standard. The supplied bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZORI with HUD and do not measure bedroom-specific asking rents.","title":"Three distinct rent universes"},{"body":"Annualizing the current index and applying a 30% share yields $72,200 required annual income, above the ACS ZCTA median household income of $57,658. The calculation is a screen, not advice or an applicant qualification test. ACS also estimates that 55.4% of renter households spent at least 30% of income on rent. Neither statistic establishes affordability, payment history, or eligibility for an individual household or unit.","title":"Affordability screen and burden"},{"body":"ACS reports a 4.6% total vacancy rate, but this aggregate classification does not demonstrate live availability, condition, or lease terms at any property. Eugene city-context rent was above the ZIP index, while Lane County context rent and Eugene-Springfield metro-context rent were below it. These wider measures are comparison context only; ZIP-level asking-rent evidence remains the relevant broad reference for this report.","title":"Stock, vacancy, and geographic context"}],"risks":["The Zillow figure blends rental types and represents observed asking-rent conditions at ZIP level. A specific listing may differ because its layout, utilities, fees, condition, timing, concessions, or lease terms differ from the index.","The Census ZCTA is a statistical match rather than the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS five-year estimates describe surveyed occupied homes rather than current listings or all rental stock.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom standards. Scaling them to ZORI produces modelled estimates whose alignment with the index is mechanical and cannot verify a measured bedroom-specific market rent.","Vacancy and rent-burden figures are aggregate survey classifications. They cannot prove that a named unit is available, habitable, suitably priced, or affordable to any particular applicant today."],"qa":[{"a":"The bedroom estimates are derived by applying the local HUD ladder to the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI, with the two-bedroom rung set to the direct index. The equal values are therefore mechanical within the model. They do not identify observed asking rents by bedroom, and they should not be read as a count or sample of actual two-bedroom listings.","q":"Why does the modelled two-bedroom estimate equal the direct ZIP index?"},{"a":"The gap compares different timeframes, populations, and rent definitions. ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The matched ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so it is not a listing-level geographic equivalence.","q":"What does the ZORI-to-ACS rent gap show?"},{"a":"The $72,200 figure is calculated as current monthly ZORI times twelve divided by 30%. It simply shows the annual household income associated with that arithmetic share. It is not an affordability recommendation, a credit or income standard, or a determination of eligibility. Actual all-in housing cost can differ with utilities, fees, concessions, and lease terms.","q":"Does the required-income figure define applicant qualification?"},{"a":"Historical coverage is complete for the supplied series, but its changes, volatility, drawdown, and discovery ranks remain backward-looking. For an individual property, the key unresolved items are live base rent, availability, layout, included utilities, recurring fees, deposits, concessions, lease duration, and restrictions. Those details determine whether a listing can sensibly be compared with the broad ZIP index.","q":"What still needs property-level verification?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":975.104171},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":983.275366},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":988.572219},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":996.243352},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":991.6974},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":991.949681},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":990.14797},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1000.878281},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1001.962726},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1013.162085},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1020.143193},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1026.281607},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1033.960177},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1030.650709},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1046.989049},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1054.390081},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1073.53515},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1068.448578},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1076.558798},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1080.820317},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1092.267704},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1091.284826},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1096.811364},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1094.492772},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1094.884194},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1104.439459},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1118.151132},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1126.99079},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1129.226203},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1137.550344},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1149.392323},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1153.357905},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1158.465283},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1167.534989},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1179.519866},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1184.641435},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1192.79408},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1192.472655},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1188.061125},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1189.542694},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1193.195721},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1203.502006},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1204.840138},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1211.981329},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1216.67272},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1222.55723},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1223.564003},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1234.389601},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1241.394269},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1253.134569},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1261.947553},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1256.736165},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1260.431193},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1261.621063},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1278.090883},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1277.192491},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1285.789925},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1285.264641},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1292.071239},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1308.102358},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1333.557045},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1343.716971},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1354.093661},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1348.229495},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1358.524188},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1360.33024},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1375.204084},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1394.157836},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1417.283922},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1440.051745},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1471.266227},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1474.331318},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1482.364506},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1487.144201},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1516.619539},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1551.175637},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1590.977569},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1626.384116},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1637.246442},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1637.224778},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1634.773413},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1637.33979},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1643.250025},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1667.38591},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1664.97744},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1669.02228},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1655.87043},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1661.276491},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1642.885148},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1630.662326},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1634.492394},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1664.707658},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1675.046434},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1682.296455},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1675.403811},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1668.635175},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1671.03809},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1687.269571},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1705.48002},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1708.41194},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1700.95712},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1709.639524},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1718.387442},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1717.844289},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1719.352925},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1728.816674},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1745.201528},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1752.774962},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1750.554063},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1751.488125},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1750.022707},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1769.971061},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1784.454317},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1787.777058},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1786.743641},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1784.036563},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1789.846809},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1789.480779},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1789.435555},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1792.867831},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1804.101082},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1804.199152},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1807.446819},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1797.12187},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1800.415498},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1802.681307},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1805.140152}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":127,"firstPeriod":"2015-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":127,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1786.743641,"endRent":1805.140152,"change":0.01029611108043671,"cagr":0.01029611108043671},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1634.492394,"endRent":1805.140152,"change":0.10440413098673607,"cagr":0.033655946633072364},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1375.204084,"endRent":1805.140152,"change":0.3126343740555675,"cagr":0.05591450210985305}},"maxDrawdown":-0.022983488273146335,"annualizedVolatility":0.02332769709906797,"consecutiveReturnCount":126}}