For Zillow ZIP market identifier 97701, the June 2026 Zillow Observed Rent Index is $2,103 per month, after a 1.91% rise from the same month a year earlier. This is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is neither a quoted rent for one home nor a bedroom-specific measure. By contrast, the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey median gross rent is $1,794 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The measures differ in population, timing, and rent concept. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The historical record moderates any reading of the current move. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change was 1.91% over one year, 1.55% over three years, and 1.62% over five years through the stated endpoint. Annualized monthly-return volatility was 3.16%, with a maximum drawdown of -3.54%. Coverage is 100% across 64 observations, giving a complete supplied history rather than a partially observed series. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,645 for momentum, 1,861 for stability, and 1,970 for balanced performance, where a lower rank is higher. The recent gain is faster than, but confirms rather than breaks from, the longer positive path. The volatility and drawdown mean the current snapshot should be read as a broad index measure, not an exact unit price; these are backward-looking measurements, not a forecast or investment recommendation.
HUD produces a different kind of evidence: its FY2026 FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Applying the local HUD ladder to the ZIP ZORI yields modelled monthly ZIP estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,593 for a studio, $1,603 for one bedroom, $2,103 for two, $2,924 for three, and $3,527 for four. The local HUD standards beneath that scaling are $1,049, $1,056, $1,385, $1,926, and $2,323 in the same bedroom order. The nearly matched studio and one-bedroom estimates reflect the ladder, while the larger steps come from the same formula. They should be used only as a transparent ZORI-scaled bedroom guide, not evidence that listings at those bedroom sizes were measured in this ZIP.
At the index level, applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to $2,103 monthly rent produces required annual household income of $84,120. That arithmetic figure is below the matched ZCTA’s ACS median household income of $87,739, but a ZIP-wide median is not an applicant’s income and the screen is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS reports that 47.2% of occupied renter households meet or exceed the rent-burden threshold. That survey burden statistic is a retrospective household condition, not proof that a particular available unit is affordable or unaffordable, and it does not convert the ZORI into a gross-rent measure with utilities.
Stock counts explain why supply indicators need careful handling. The matched ZCTA contains 19,440 housing units, of which 1,176 are vacant, for a 6.0% overall vacancy rate. Of the vacant units, 355 are categorized as for rent and 574 as seasonal; those classifications alone do not establish active listing inventory, the rent of any opening, or the condition of a unit. Single-family structures make up the larger identified segment of the stock, with large multifamily structures a much smaller segment. This housing profile is a survey-based area total, and neither the vacancy rate nor the vacancy categories prove availability at a particular address or on a particular lease date.
Broader readings put the ZIP below each supplied context rent, but they remain context rather than substitutes for its index. At their respective wider scopes, Bend city context rent is $2,300, Deschutes County context rent is $2,205, and Bend, OR metro context rent is $2,205; each exceeds the ZIP’s current ZORI. City, county, and metro boundaries and renter populations are not the matched ZCTA’s universe, so the comparisons describe relative context only. They do not show why rents differ, identify a property’s market position, or override the ZIP-specific measure.
Several limits remain material. ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, ACS is a multiyear survey with sampling uncertainty, and HUD standards are administrative inputs; none provides a live lease quote. A property-level review can check the address’s marketed ZIP, actual bedroom count and interior layout, asking amount, lease term, included utilities, mandatory fees, concessions, availability date, condition, and any stated eligibility rules. It can also distinguish a vacant census category from a currently marketable unit. The practical reconciliation question is: does the specific listing’s advertised price and contract terms fit the relevant source universe, rather than merely resemble this ZIP-level snapshot?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI is $2,103, up 1.91% from the same month a year earlier. The one-, three-, and five-year annualized changes are 1.91%, 1.55%, and 1.62%. With 3.16% annualized monthly-return volatility and a -3.54% maximum drawdown, the history is positive but not smooth. These are descriptive measurements, not projections.","title":"Current direction is above the longer path"},{"body":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS median gross rent comes from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Therefore, the $2,103, $1,794, and HUD figures are complementary evidence universes, not interchangeable market quotes.","title":"The rent sources are not interchangeable"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom estimates are modelled by scaling overall ZORI with the local HUD ladder. The resulting range runs from $1,593 to $3,527, while underlying HUD standards run from $1,049 to $2,323. The method creates a consistent bedroom gradient, but no observed bedroom-specific rental sample. An actual listing can differ from every modelled point.","title":"Bedroom values are HUD-scaled model outputs"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen produces $84,120 of required annual income at the current ZORI, versus a matched-ZCTA ACS median household income of $87,739. ACS also reports a 47.2% rent-burden share among occupied renter households. Housing counts show 6.0% overall vacancy, but vacant-for-rent and seasonal categories are not live inventory. Neither burden nor vacancy establishes affordability, availability, or lease terms for a specific unit.","title":"Area aggregates do not resolve a unit-level question"}],"risks":["A current ZORI figure can move differently from ACS gross rent because asking observations, occupied renter homes, timing, and treatment of selected utilities are not the same evidence universe.","Bedroom amounts may appear precise, yet they derive from a HUD-scaled formula. Actual unit size, condition, lease structure, utilities, and concessions can separate a listing from the modelled estimate.","The Zillow ZIP identifier and matched Census ZCTA share a label but not identical boundaries or delivery purpose. Geographic matching does not establish that an address, listing, or household belongs to both constructs.","Overall vacancy, vacant-for-rent counts, and renter burden are area aggregates. They cannot confirm current unit availability, quoted rent, household income, eligibility, or whether a particular tenant faces the reported burden."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the ZIP market level. The ACS amount is a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different populations, timing, and rent definitions can produce a gap. The gap does not identify the rent, utility package, or condition of any one listing.","q":"Why does the ZIP’s current asking index exceed its ACS gross-rent median?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent. The results describe a consistent modelled gradient and cannot verify a unit’s actual bedrooms, condition, size, included utilities, or advertised price.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for actual apartments and homes?"},{"a":"The June 2026 gain of 1.91% is above the three-year and five-year annualized changes of 1.55% and 1.62%, so recent direction aligns with the longer positive path rather than reversing it. The record’s 3.16% annualized monthly-return volatility, -3.54% maximum drawdown, and complete supplied coverage describe historical variation only. They do not forecast future rent.","q":"What does history say about current direction and precision?"},{"a":"No. The ACS vacancy categories are area-level survey counts rather than a real-time availability feed, and the burden share summarizes surveyed renter households rather than a listing applicant. Confirming a unit requires its current advertised price, lease term, utilities, fees, concessions, bedroom configuration, condition, availability date, and stated eligibility terms. Neither aggregate answers those property-specific questions.","q":"Can vacancy and rent-burden figures determine whether a listed unit is available or affordable?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1782.234206},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1824.87449},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1867.906253},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1940.948831},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1976.509027},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2000.258639},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2021.107463},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1986.748837},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1951.898227},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1949.563123},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1977.360512},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1992.369023},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1987.604239},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1984.06375},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1993.483585},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1981.719605},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1986.504634},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1987.870316},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1997.397089},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2011.787639},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2030.861304},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2026.230099},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2010.577471},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1998.848993},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2013.707028},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2021.724304},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2010.620208},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2008.487734},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2007.999056},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2015.030373},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2008.07172},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2015.633999},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2035.992397},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2053.842203},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2061.30043},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2047.700224},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2044.7302},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2042.941556},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2045.949246},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2048.491863},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2049.61054},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2050.572722},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2048.295451},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2040.983727},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2034.752828},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2004.015321},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2008.05579},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2018.587265},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2048.430978},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2053.379285},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2059.380602},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2063.977785},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2069.48674},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2071.915274},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2081.481257},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2088.520263},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2087.549276},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2110.549226},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2112.649559},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2119.12229},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2100.06054},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2101.247684},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2102.382396},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2103.403937}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2063.977785,"endRent":2103.403937,"change":0.019102023426090353,"cagr":0.019102023426090353},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2008.487734,"endRent":2103.403937,"change":0.0472575467568177,"cagr":0.015510690212961364},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1940.948831,"endRent":2103.403937,"change":0.08369880926551843,"cagr":0.016205916799269415}},"maxDrawdown":-0.0353985828610045,"annualizedVolatility":0.031573582227075105,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}