The most immediate signal is a high and recently rising ZIP benchmark: in June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 97702 was $2,347 per month, up 5.9% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than an advertised quote for a particular home. For wider context, the citywide Bend, OR Zillow asking-rent index was $2,300, while the Deschutes County Zillow asking-rent index and Bend, OR metro Zillow asking-rent index were each $2,205. Those city, county, and metro values are wider-scope context only, not substitutes for the ZIP series. The contrast puts the ZIP’s current asking-rent benchmark above each named comparison, but says nothing by itself about a specific available unit.
Recent direction confirms the longer path but at a faster latest pace. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change was 5.9% over 1 year, versus 3.3% over 3 years and 3.2% over 5 years. Thus, the latest reading is acceleration rather than a break from the historical upward trajectory. The monthly history has 100% coverage through the stated endpoint; its annualized monthly-return variability was 2.8% and maximum drawdown was -3.3%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 498 for momentum, 1,270 for stability, and 433 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Complete coverage supports confidence that the record is not missing intervals, while measured variability means a current index snapshot should not be treated as certain for the next reading.
The five-digit label 97702 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 5-year survey of the matched ZCTA, median gross rent was $1,994. ACS covers occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. The Zillow index was 17.7% above that ACS figure, a scope, timing, and rental-mix difference rather than a like-for-like price gap. Separately, the FY 2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR was $1,385. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so it should not be read as a competing listing quote.
For a bedroom view, the ZIP ZORI was mechanically scaled by the local HUD bedroom ladder. The resulting modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $1,778 for a studio, $1,789 for one bedroom, $2,347 for two bedrooms, $3,264 for three bedrooms, and $3,937 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: they preserve HUD’s local bedroom relationship while anchoring the middle result to the blended ZIP index. They do not establish observed asking rent, lease terms, condition, or availability for any unit size. Their useful role is a consistent cross-bedroom frame; the property-level rent must still be verified independently.
Affordability produces a separate, arithmetic tension. Applying a 30% required-income screen to the current ZORI yields $93,880 in annual income, against a matched-ZCTA ACS median household income of $96,112. This screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. A median household-income comparison also does not identify the income of a renter, a household’s expenses, or a landlord’s criteria. Separately, 43.2% of renter households in the ACS ZCTA reported spending at least the burden threshold on gross rent. That survey burden measure, like the ACS rent measure, cannot prove that a particular available unit would burden—or fit—the household considering it.
Housing-stock evidence adds scale without establishing supply for a shopper. The matched ZCTA contained 24,164 housing units and had a 7.3% vacancy rate. Its reported stock classifications include single-family and large multifamily structures, while renter-occupied homes accounted for 28.5% of occupied housing. These ACS stock and occupancy readings describe the statistical area over the survey period, not a live inventory feed. In particular, vacancy classifications can include homes not offered for a conventional current rental, so the rate is not proof of availability, condition, rent, or term for a particular unit. Nor does the structure mix identify the type of any individual rental listing.
Limits matter because the principal datasets answer different questions on different schedules: Zillow supplies a ZIP asking-rent index, ACS supplies a multiyear survey profile of occupied homes, and HUD supplies an administrative standard. None observes the exact lease under review. For a property-level check, verify the address and market geography, advertised rent, bedroom count, lease length, listing date, concessions, included utilities, furnished status, recurring fees, availability, and physical condition. Compare these live listing facts with the appropriate source rather than treating the index, survey median, HUD standard, burden share, or vacancy rate as a property fact. Which verified unit terms make the listing genuinely comparable with the ZIP benchmark?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI was $2,347, up 5.9% from the same month a year earlier. Exact same-month annualized change was 3.3% over the prior three-year span and 3.2% over the prior five-year span. The latest growth rate therefore accelerates the established historical direction. This is descriptive history only, not a projection of future asking rents.","title":"Recent pace exceeds the longer-run rate"},{"body":"ACS’s matched-ZCTA median gross rent of $1,994 is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow’s $2,347 ZORI is a ZIP-level asking-rent index. HUD’s $1,385 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is instead an administrative bedroom-specific standard. These values provide complementary context, but their differences should not be treated as a like-for-like pricing spread.","title":"Source differences are material"},{"body":"The studio through four-bedroom series is a set of modelled monthly ZIP estimates, never measured bedroom rents. It mechanically applies local HUD bedroom relationships to the blended $2,347 ZORI, producing $1,778, $1,789, $2,347, $3,264, and $3,937. It does not establish what any property owner is currently asking, what utilities are included, or whether a comparable unit is available.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"The arithmetic 30% screen produces $93,880 of required annual income, close to the $96,112 ACS ZCTA median household income, while 43.2% of renter households reported burden at that threshold. The ZCTA’s 7.3% vacancy rate and 28.5% renter share describe survey-era housing stock and occupancy. They do not establish a household’s qualification, a unit’s live availability, or its all-in cost.","title":"Affordability and vacancy remain context"}],"risks":["Zillow’s index blends rental types and reports a typical observed asking-rent level. A listing can differ because of its actual bedroom count, lease term, concessions, utilities, furnishing, fees, condition, and availability.","The 97702 label links a Zillow ZIP market and a Census ZCTA, but the ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP. Boundary and universe differences limit direct property-level inference.","ACS values summarize a multiyear survey and carry sampling uncertainty; they do not provide live leases or tenant-level facts. The burden share and vacancy rate cannot establish the cost, availability, or affordability of a particular unit.","Historical acceleration, volatility, drawdown, and discovery ranks are retrospective descriptions of the Zillow series. They do not establish a future trajectory, an investment outcome, or the value of an individual rental property."],"qa":[{"a":"The June 2026 value of $2,347 is Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful as a market benchmark, but it is not a quote, appraisal, lease offer, or confirmation that a home at that amount is currently available.","q":"What does the current Zillow figure represent?"},{"a":"They measure different universes. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. ZORI is an asking-rent index, so differences do not identify a pricing error or a premium for an individual property.","q":"Why do ACS and HUD rents differ from ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI according to the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve a consistent relative ladder, but do not measure rents actually asked or paid for any bedroom category, building, condition level, lease term, or available unit.","q":"Are the bedroom rents observed market quotes?"},{"a":"The required-income result simply divides the annualized ZORI by 30%; it is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden share reports a survey condition among renter households. Neither figure determines whether a particular household qualifies, nor whether a particular property will be affordable after utilities, fees, and lease terms.","q":"What does the 30% screen and burden share tell a reader?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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