At the stated June 2026 endpoint, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for this ZIP is $1,808 per month, up 1.9% from a year earlier. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quote for one available home. The immediate tension appears in the direct ZIP resale record: Redfin’s rolling three-month observation reports a $504,886 median sold price, rising 5.2% year over year, while annualized ZORI divided by that price produces a 4.3% cross-source screening ratio. The ratio is neither a cap rate nor a net return, expected return, property yield, or a measure of property-level economics.
Looking backward, the asking-rent path remains positive but its pace has cooled. Exact same-month Zillow ZORI changes annualize to 1.9% over one year, 3.8% over three years, and 5.0% over five years. The latest increase therefore confirms the longer direction of growth, yet breaks from the longer path’s faster pace. The supplied history has full coverage and consecutive monthly returns, so the record is contiguous rather than sparse. Its annualized monthly-return variability is 2.9%, which limits confidence in treating one current index reading as fixed; the separate maximum drawdown of 4.0% shows that declines have appeared in the observed record. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source definitions explain why rent figures do not line up mechanically. The ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched Census ZCTA reports $1,659 median gross rent among occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities, and the pooled survey is not current asking-rent evidence. Zillow’s index is 9.0% higher, but it uses a different universe. The 98002 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR of $2,501 is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled ZIP estimates of $1,499 for a studio, $1,808 for two bedrooms, and $2,781 for four bedrooms; these are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
An arithmetic income screen makes the affordability tension visible without defining eligibility. The ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $78,684, and paying the current asking-rent index at 30% of income implies $72,320 in required annual income; equivalently, the index equals 27.6% of that median income. This threshold is not advice or an applicant qualification rule. In the same ACS renter-home survey, 4,241 of 7,290 renter households, or 58.2%, reported spending at or above the screen; that aggregate burden is not proof about any particular unit or household. For wider context, the City of Auburn context rent is $1,953, King County context rent is $2,330, and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro context rent is $2,269; all are broader-place context, not ZIP substitutes.
The matched ZCTA survey supplies the stock and vacancy lens, rather than a live availability count. It estimates 15,044 housing units, of which 775 are vacant, for a 5.2% vacancy rate, and renters occupy 51.1% of occupied homes. Some vacant stock is classified as vacant for rent, but that classification does not establish availability, condition, price, or timing for a specific apartment. The structure mix includes 6,570 single-family units and 2,863 units in large multifamily structures. These ACS five-year estimates describe an area-level housing base and should not be merged with a particular listing or treated as confirmation that a vacant unit can meet the affordability screen.
Resale evidence introduces a mixed liquidity picture, but it stays entirely in the for-sale universe. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation, 51 homes sold and median marketing time was 11 days. Inventory reached 61 homes, up 33.2% from a year earlier, and months of supply stood at 3.6. Sellers received an average 102.2% of list price, a sale-to-list signal that belongs to resale transactions, not rental negotiations. Sale-price growth exceeded the current rent increase, while rapid marketing and above-list average sales reinforce the resale-side signal. Yet expanded inventory and measured supply challenge any simple reading of the cross-source screen; none of these sales measures is rental-comp evidence.
Transparent national discovery ranks provide a further, limited historical comparison. Among history-eligible ZIPs nationwide, the ZIP ranks 1,125 on momentum, 1,493 on stability, and 1,196 on the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. These ranks are not national affordability, quality, or return rankings; they only organize the supplied ZORI history metrics. The rank values should be read alongside the mixed record: sustained multiyear gains coexist with slower recent appreciation and month-to-month variation. They add context to the history rather than increasing certainty about the next observation. The full series supports description of the past path, but neither ranks nor scores convert that description into a forecast.
Several limits keep the report from resolving property economics. ZORI is an index across rental types, ACS is a survey of occupied homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a rolling resale observation; none supplies a matched unit-level rent-and-sale file. A property-level review would need to verify the actual bedroom count and rental type, current advertised rent, utility inclusions, lease concessions, and vacancy status before applying the modelled bedroom ladder or the ACS comparison. For a sale-side review, verify the specific property’s closed-price record, list-price history, marketing time, and physical characteristics rather than applying the ZIP median mechanically. The central question is whether documented property facts resemble the source universe being used, rather than whether one area-level figure can answer every rent or resale question.
","findings":[{"body":"Same-month ZORI growth slowed from 5.0% annualized across five years to 1.9% across one year, while remaining positive. Full history coverage makes this a coherent backward-looking path, but the 2.9% annualized monthly variation and 4.0% maximum drawdown argue against treating the latest index point as an immovable rent level.","title":"Rent growth has slowed without turning negative"},{"body":"At the supplied median household income, the arithmetic 30% income screen sits below the stated income estimate, but the ACS burden result remains high: 58.2% of surveyed renter households are at or above the screen. These are population-level measures from a five-year survey, not an eligibility determination or a conclusion about one household.","title":"Income arithmetic and burden data show a tension"},{"body":"The ACS gross-rent median, Zillow asking-rent index, and HUD two-bedroom standard should be compared only after their scopes are named. The modelled bedroom ladder borrows the local HUD bedroom relationship to scale ZORI; it does not observe leases or listings by bedroom count. That distinction is material when evaluating a specific unit.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates, not rent comps"},{"body":"Resale conditions show both fast transaction indicators and more available supply. The direct ZIP observation has short marketing time and an above-list average sale-to-list result, while inventory increased and months of supply registered. Those facts describe sold and listed homes only, and they complicate reading a rent-to-price screen as a complete market description.","title":"Resale indicators are mixed and remain separate from rent"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended ZIP index across rental types. A unit’s bedroom count, condition, utility treatment, advertised price, and lease terms can differ from the index, so the figure cannot validate a particular listing.","The matched Census ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS pools five years of surveyed occupied homes. Sampling uncertainty, timing, and geographic definition limit one-to-one comparison with current Zillow ZIP asking-rent observations.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards. Applying their ratios to ZORI creates modelled estimates that may be useful for scaling, but they cannot establish measured market rent for any bedroom, building type, lease, or utility package.","Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP figures are for-sale and resale observations. Median sold price and the annualized ZORI-to-price screen omit property operating costs, financing, and matched rent history, so they cannot substantiate cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield."],"qa":[{"a":"The reported value is Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the supplied endpoint. It measures an area-level asking-rent signal, not a signed lease, a quoted available unit, or a directly observed bedroom-specific rent. Consequently, it cannot by itself characterize one property.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure measure?"},{"a":"ACS reports a five-year survey median gross rent for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, with selected utilities included. ZORI is a current ZIP asking-rent index. The ZCTA is a statistical area rather than the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP, so timing, population, geography, and rent definition all differ.","q":"Why is the ACS rent figure not interchangeable with ZORI?"},{"a":"The studio through four-bedroom figures were modelled by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD values are administrative bedroom-specific standards, and the output is a modelled ZIP estimate. It is not a measured rent series from bedroom-matched listings, leases, or units.","q":"How were bedroom estimates created, and what are they not?"},{"a":"Redfin supplies a direct rolling three-month ZIP resale observation, including sold-price, inventory, marketing-time, supply, and sale-to-list signals. It can identify tension between the for-sale record and rent growth, but it does not report rental transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is therefore only a cross-source screen, never a property return measure.","q":"How should the Redfin result be read alongside rent information?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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