ZIP 98109 presents a cross-market tension rather than a uniform signal. In June 2026, Zillow’s current ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, is $2,461 per month after a 0.69% year-over-year decline. The direct ZIP Redfin resale observation reports a $882,301 median sold price, up 0.26% year over year. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that median price is 3.35%, but it is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The small resale-price gain alongside softer asking rent challenges any reading that either series alone describes a single property’s economics or a synchronized housing market.
Looking backward, the exact same-month ZORI record shows -0.69% over 1 year, +2.20% over 3 years, and +3.10% over 5 years. Thus the latest direction breaks from the positive longer path, although it does not erase that earlier growth. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.22%, and the maximum drawdown was -17.02%, so the path has moved materially around its trend. Coverage is 100%. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,154 for momentum, 1,934 for stability, and 2,429 for balanced history; a lower number simply places a ZIP higher in its named discovery ordering. These backward-looking measurements are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations. High variability means a reader should place less confidence in a single current rent snapshot as a stable anchor and more attention on its historical range.
Measure choice explains why the rent benchmarks do not coincide. The ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched Census ZCTA reports $2,343 median gross rent for occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities. That is 5.04% below the ZIP ZORI, which is an asking-rent index rather than a survey median. The five-digit label 98109 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD’s FY 2026 local two-bedroom $2,501 Fair Market Rent is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. For wider context only, the City of Seattle scope rent figure is $2,224.125, the King County scope figure is $2,330, and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro scope figure is $2,269.
The local HUD ladder supplies a size pattern, not observations of what individual units were advertised for. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,041 for a studio, $2,112 for one bedroom, $2,461 for two bedrooms, $3,220 for three bedrooms, and $3,785 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and should not be treated as unit-level rental comparables. Their ordering comes from the local HUD standards while their level comes from the blended ZORI; neither ingredient identifies a building’s condition, included utilities, lease terms, or actual availability. The ladder is useful for keeping bedroom assumptions explicit when interpreting a ZIP-wide rent index, not for asserting what a specific residence will command.
Income and burden evidence describes household-level screens, not a leasing decision. At the ZCTA’s $133,663 median household income, the annual income arithmetic associated with paying the current ZORI at 30% is $98,440; the asking-rent-to-income screen is 22.09%. The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS survey, 31.13% of renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. This cannot establish burden, rent, or utility treatment for any particular unit or household. City and county burden measures use broader, different geographic scopes and remain context rather than ZIP evidence.
The ZCTA stock data indicate a renter-heavy, largely multifamily housing base, while remaining too aggregated to describe a listing. Of 24,597 housing units, 78.91% of occupied homes are renter occupied, and the reported vacancy rate is 11.03%. Larger multifamily structures account for 17,092 units. These are ACS ZCTA classifications and counts, not a real-time inventory feed. The vacancy figure does not prove that a particular dwelling is for rent, competitively priced, vacant today, or offered with a concession; it can only frame the aggregate backdrop alongside the Zillow index and survey measures. The substantial renter share makes the occupied-renter ACS rent and burden measures especially relevant as descriptive, rather than unit-specific, evidence.
Liquidity signals belong solely to the for-sale side. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation records 78 homes sold, a 30-day median marketing time, 115 homes of inventory, and 4.5 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result is 98.31%, while 11.85% of sales closed above list. Those are resale transactions, listings, and marketing outcomes—not rental transactions, rental concessions, or tenant demand. In combination with the median-price increase noted above, the sale data neither validate nor replace the softer current ZORI reading. Instead, that supply level and an average result below list challenge a simple scarcity interpretation of the ZIP’s positive longer rent history, while the slight price increase contrasts with the recent asking-rent decline. That is a cross-universe tension, not evidence of causation.
The data are most useful when their boundaries are retained. A current ZORI does not identify a specific advertised unit; ACS is a retrospective five-year survey of occupied renter homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin is a short rolling resale record. For a property-level review, check the actual listed rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, availability status, and whether the record is a rental listing or a sale. Then keep any comparison within the appropriate universe: observed asking-rent index, survey gross rent, modelled bedroom estimate, HUD standard, or resale statistic. Also verify the geography used by the listing, because a Census ZCTA and a USPS delivery ZIP are not identical. The closing question is whether documented property terms fit the relevant measure, not whether a ZIP average proves the terms of a home.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP ZORI is $2,461 per month, down 0.69% from the same month a year earlier. Redfin’s direct ZIP resale median sold price is $882,301, up 0.26%. The contrast matters, but it does not make either series a substitute for the other: one is asking-rent indexing and the other is closed-sale evidence.","title":"Rent and resale move in different directions"},{"body":"Over exact same-month intervals, ZORI changed -0.69% in 1 year, +2.20% annually over 3 years, and +3.10% annually over 5 years. Its 3.22% annualized monthly-return variability and -17.02% maximum drawdown classify the recorded route as variable. The recent decline breaks near-term direction from the longer positive path; it does not provide a forecast.","title":"Near-term rent direction breaks from longer history"},{"body":"Matched ZCTA ACS median gross rent is $2,343 and includes selected utilities in occupied renter homes, while ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index. The local two-bedroom HUD standard is $2,501, a bedroom-specific administrative measure rather than asking rent. ZCTA boundaries are statistical and are not identical to USPS delivery ZIPs. The bedroom ladder is modelled from ZORI and HUD, not a set of measured rents.","title":"Rent sources answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports 78 homes sold, a 30-day median marketing time, 115 homes of inventory, and 4.5 months of supply. Its 98.31% average sale-to-list result and 11.85% above-list share describe resale execution. They are not rental transactions, rental comparables, or measures of tenant demand.","title":"Resale liquidity is a separate market signal"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is blended across rental types, so differences in bedroom count, utility inclusion, lease structure, building condition, and listing availability can make the ZIP index unlike a selected unit.","ACS results are five-year ZCTA survey estimates for occupied renter homes rather than current listings. The ZCTA boundary differs from a USPS delivery ZIP, and gross rent includes selected utilities.","The bedroom amounts are modelled by scaling ZORI with HUD standards. HUD Fair Market Rent is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, so neither input demonstrates measured bedroom rents or an actual attainable asking price.","Redfin observations cover a rolling three-month for-sale/resale sample, not rental transactions. Sold-price, inventory, and sale-to-list measures may frame resale liquidity but cannot establish property income, a cap rate, or a return."],"qa":[{"a":"They are constructed from different universes. Zillow’s $2,461 ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS reports a $2,343 five-year median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different coverage, timing, geography, and rent concepts can produce different values without indicating an error.","q":"Why can Zillow ZORI be above ACS median gross rent without a contradiction?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom values are generated by scaling the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve an explicit size relationship, but they are modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents, advertised rents, or unit-level rental comparables. Utilities, terms, condition, and availability remain unspecified.","q":"Does the bedroom ladder provide observed rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"The $98,440 figure is the arithmetic annual income associated with allocating 30% of income to the current ZIP ZORI. It is not advice, a household budget determination, or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden share describes surveyed renter households’ gross-rent burdens and cannot demonstrate the experience of a particular renter or unit.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen indicate?"},{"a":"Redfin covers direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observations, including sold homes, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list results. It does not measure rental transactions. A modest price gain alongside a one-year ZORI decline is a tension between source universes, not proof that one market caused, predicts, or validates the other.","q":"How should the Redfin resale data affect interpretation of the rent history?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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