June 2026's 98125 asking-rent reading is $1,853 per month, a 1.08% decline from the same month a year earlier. The five-digit label 98125 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match: a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level record or a measure of every dwelling. It combines observations across rental types, so it does not isolate a building format, bedroom count, or a specific advertised unit. The present cooling signal appears in this index, but it is not a prediction of future asking rents or a statement about every advertised property.
The newest decline conflicts with the ZIP's longer same-month record rather than confirming it. Same-month annualized changes are -1.08% over one year, 0.72% over three years, and 3.67% over five years, so recent direction breaks from an otherwise positive multi-year path. The history has 100% coverage within the supplied direct Zillow observations. Its 2.66% annualized monthly-return variability and -5.83% maximum drawdown mean a current snapshot is well documented but still timing-sensitive. Coverage supports confidence in the calculation's traceability, while variability and drawdown limit the confidence warranted by one current rent snapshot; these are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Among history-eligible ZIPs nationally, transparent discovery ranks are 2,513 for momentum, 994 for stability, and 2,191 for balanced, where a lower rank is higher.
Source separation changes how the values should be read. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,908 median gross rent with a $57 margin of error for occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities. That survey median is 97.1% of the Zillow reading, close numerically but not interchangeable with a blended asking-rent index. For wider context only, the Seattle city context rent is $2,224, the King County context rent is $2,330, and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro context rent is $2,269; each is outside the ZIP-specific evidence universe. The ranking of levels does not make their methodologies, time windows, or population coverage identical.
The local HUD ladder provides a separate administrative benchmark, not asking rent. In FY2026, its monthly FMR/SAFMR standards are $2,074 for a studio, $2,146 for one bedroom, $2,501 for two, $3,272 for three, and $3,847 for four. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that ladder yields modelled estimates of $1,537, $1,590, $1,853, $2,424, and $2,850, respectively. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: their purpose is a consistent bedroom-shaped translation of the blended ZIP index, not evidence that a listed unit rents at those amounts. The relationship merely preserves HUD bedroom differentials around the ZIP index; it does not observe property characteristics, lease terms, or unit availability.
Affordability produces a different tension. Applying the 30% screen to the current monthly index produces a required annual income of $74,120; this is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $99,868, but a ZIP-wide median cannot stand in for a renter's income. Yet 51.9% of renter households are estimated in the ACS survey as spending 30% or more of income on gross rent. The burden statistic describes survey respondents across occupied rental homes; it cannot prove the burden of a particular unit or applicant. It is a prevalence estimate for the ZCTA survey universe, not a calculation of affordability for any actual listing.
Housing supply indicators frame availability but do not identify an available unit. The ACS ZCTA has 22,057 housing units, including 10,853 single-family units and 8,135 large multifamily units. Its 6.2% overall vacancy rate includes 1,006 units vacant for rent. The counts describe the ZCTA housing stock as a whole, across occupied and vacant homes, rather than a current list of marketable rentals. Accordingly, vacancy neither proves that a particular unit is vacant nor establishes its condition, listed asking rent, lease terms, or fit. Aggregate stock measures are useful context, but they do not substitute for property-specific facts.
The evidence has mismatched timing and concepts: Zillow is an asking-rent index, ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes with selected utilities in gross rent, and HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent series. Relevant property-level checks are the advertised asking versus effective rent, bedroom count, lease term, included and separately billed utilities, recurring fees, availability date, and whether the property aligns with the ZIP market label and its USPS delivery designation. Those listing facts can distinguish a specific offering from the area-level index, survey, and HUD standard. What does the specific listing document, rather than the area-level evidence, say?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's June reading of $1,853 is 1.08% below the prior same-month level, while the supplied annualized same-month measures remain positive over three and five years. The short-run cooling therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer path. Full history coverage improves traceability, but measured variability and drawdown make the current figure a dated snapshot instead of a forward signal.","title":"Recent cooling interrupts the longer record"},{"body":"The ZIP ZORI is an observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The ACS ZCTA median gross-rent figure is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while the HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Close dollar values cannot erase these universe and timing differences; city, county, and metro figures are contextual comparisons, not substitutes for the ZIP measure.","title":"Area rent measures answer different questions"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom values are modelled by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. The resulting progression provides a consistent way to translate a blended index across bedroom sizes while preserving the HUD standard's relative structure. It does not observe completed leases, listed units, unit configuration, utility treatment, or actual property terms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.","title":"Bedroom values are a modelled ladder"},{"body":"ACS reports a substantial share of renter households spending at least 30% of income on gross rent, even though the ZIP-wide income screen is below that threshold when applied to the asking index. Housing-stock and vacancy figures describe the ZCTA aggregate. Neither result establishes a particular applicant's income, a listing's availability, its effective rent, or whether any one home is burdened.","title":"Burden and vacancy are area signals, not unit facts"}],"risks":["ZORI blends rental types and reflects observed asking rents, so it cannot establish the asking price, concessions, lease renewal terms, or rent actually paid for any particular unit.","ACS ZCTA estimates are a five-year survey of occupied renter homes with margins of error, and the statistical ZCTA boundary is not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative FMR/SAFMR benchmarks rather than asking rents; scaling from them creates modelled estimates that may not capture a property's configuration, utilities, or lease terms.","An area vacancy rate and units vacant for rent do not demonstrate present availability, condition, price, eligibility, or suitability of a specific property, nor do burden data identify an applicant."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent should not be treated as rival measurements of the same transaction set. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Their dates, universes, and treatment of utilities differ, so the comparison is contextual rather than a reconciliation.","q":"How should the difference between Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent be interpreted?"},{"a":"No. The amounts are generated by scaling the ZIP-level ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. That creates a consistent modelled relationship from studio through four bedrooms, but neither the Zillow index nor the HUD standard observes a particular unit's bedrooms, lease, utilities, configuration, concessions, or signed rent. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents for studio through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"The history describes prior same-month changes only. A negative one-year result alongside positive three- and five-year annualized changes means recent cooling departs from the longer observed path. Complete coverage supports the calculation's transparency, while the reported volatility and maximum drawdown show why a single current observation should not be read as a forecast or investment conclusion.","q":"What does the cooling history establish about future rent direction?"},{"a":"No. Vacancy is an aggregate ZCTA estimate and burden is an aggregate survey statistic for occupied renter homes. They cannot identify a listing's current availability, physical condition, effective rent, included utilities, fees, bedroom configuration, lease term, or a particular household's income. Those listing-specific facts remain separate from the ZIP-level and area-level measures reported here.","q":"Can area vacancy and burden values tell me whether a listed home is available or affordable?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1340.713051},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1374.822678},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1369.501937},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1360.151208},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1359.353304},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1378.418684},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1382.345611},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1370.770624},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1376.767229},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1394.497648},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1421.027257},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1422.969932},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1415.658402},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1409.085973},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1434.455409},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1439.591749},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1447.257345},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1445.740061},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1458.675463},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1465.396569},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1477.735369},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1484.235665},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1479.57556},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1481.666182},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1473.974193},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1489.853233},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1482.519151},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1488.675366},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1490.700761},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1495.351133},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1494.526326},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1500.90201},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1502.368629},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1502.50725},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1502.459785},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1505.43171},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1514.684742},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1508.499777},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1512.294849},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1515.642822},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1519.278077},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1521.275381},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1522.485168},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1524.094116},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1523.507905},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1524.878382},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1529.373066},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1571.970778},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1583.847966},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1581.643994},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1565.353375},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1552.856927},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1545.567377},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1536.969538},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1546.274052},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1522.396191},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1508.735272},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1491.567188},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1501.082975},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1511.766411},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1509.384127},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1526.174179},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1547.967342},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1586.670917},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1618.74874},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1645.081797},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1656.417879},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1699.716008},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1716.563415},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1744.572188},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1742.41929},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1763.542204},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1790.605822},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1800.91344},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1817.11383},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1805.523529},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1798.984147},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1798.784488},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1805.018879},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1802.082063},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1801.353377},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1800.707874},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1810.168418},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1814.485707},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1814.873972},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1819.847638},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1814.192592},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1816.626695},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1826.466909},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1839.263008},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1847.272914},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1843.501782},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1847.200165},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1852.13074},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1859.953593},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1845.582346},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1843.529868},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1841.015526},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1844.991156},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1842.339338},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1852.717669},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1853.321061},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1857.154913},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1842.752047},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1849.022837},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1845.267309},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1852.207457},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1859.196009},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1864.779398},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1878.170914},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1873.65763},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1881.491891},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1874.351801},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1871.538355},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1867.202425},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1882.235565},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1877.808997},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1879.426777},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1869.706691},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1869.93827},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1865.187638},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1853.613107},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1853.446718}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":123,"firstPeriod":"2016-04-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":123,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1873.65763,"endRent":1853.446718,"change":-0.010786875721793376,"cagr":-0.010786875721793376},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1814.192592,"endRent":1853.446718,"change":0.021637243020998786,"cagr":0.007161011843925369},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1547.967342,"endRent":1853.446718,"change":0.19734226150101808,"cagr":0.0366774751836485}},"maxDrawdown":-0.05826365912698972,"annualizedVolatility":0.026610225313801656,"consecutiveReturnCount":122}}