The for-sale record creates the clearest current tension. In the direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation, the median sold price was $824,814, up 0.6% from a year earlier. There were 101 homes sold, with a median 15 days on market. Inventory stood at 110 homes and 3.3 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 100.08%; 22.5% of sales closed above list, while 47.4% went off market within two weeks. These are direct ZIP resale measures rather than rental transactions. Taken together, they portray observable resale turnover and a contained price change, but they do not turn those liquidity signals into evidence of a strong rent or income trend.
Zillow's current ZIP ZORI is $1,964 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, and its current same-month increase is 1.0%. The exact annualized same-month path is 1.0% for 1 year, 1.7% for 3 years, and 3.5% for 5 years. The immediate direction remains upward, but the latest pace breaks from the stronger longer-period growth path rather than confirming it. Annualized variability of monthly returns is 3.0%, meaning individual observations have moved around the trend; the series also endured an 8.7% peak-to-trough drawdown. With 100% history coverage, the transparent national discovery ranks are 1,856 for momentum, 1,576 for stability, and 1,983 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower rank is higher. These backward-looking measurements do not forecast rents or recommend an investment; volatility and drawdown argue for treating this month's reading as a snapshot, not a fixed trajectory.
The 98144 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,812 median gross rent for occupied renter homes; that measure includes selected utilities and is not asking rent. The current ZORI is 8.4% above it, a difference that can reflect distinct source universes, populations, timing, and rent definitions rather than a contradiction. For wider, scope-named context, the City of Seattle rent context is $2,224, King County rent context is $2,330, and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro rent context is $2,269. Each is a wider-area context, not a substitute for the ZIP index or a claim about a particular available home.
Bedroom detail needs a separate reading. The local HUD ladder scales the ZIP ZORI into modelled monthly estimates of $1,629 for a studio, $1,685 for one bedroom, $1,964 for two bedrooms, $2,569 for three, and $3,021 for four. They are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. The FY2026 HUD ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its two-bedroom standard is $2,501. Thus the modelled two-bedroom figure is 78.5% of that HUD standard. HUD FMR/SAFMR supports a consistent bedroom scaling input, but it does not convert the Zillow index into a bedroom-level rental observation.
Income and burden supply a different screen, not an answer about any one lease. ACS places median household income at $96,969. Applying a 30% rent-to-income arithmetic screen to the current ZORI produces required annual income of $78,560, and the ZIP asking-rent-to-income screen is 24.3%. This is arithmetic only: it is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS occupied-renter survey universe, 51.6% of renter households reported paying at least that share of income toward rent. That burden statistic cannot prove what any particular unit costs, who will rent it, or whether a household faces the current asking index. It instead sets a broader survey-based affordability tension beside the asking-rent screen.
The housing base provides another check on how broadly such measures should be generalized. The matched ZCTA contains 16,873 housing units, of which 16,019 are occupied and 854 are vacant. Renter occupancy accounts for 54.5% of occupied homes, while the overall vacancy rate is 5.1%. These are ACS stock and occupancy estimates, not a count of listings available to rent today; they cannot establish vacancy at a given building or unit. The ZIP's renter share is above the King County context share but the vacancy measure should not be merged with metro apartment vacancy, because those are wider and differently defined contexts. The observed stock therefore helps describe tenure and occupancy, while leaving unit-level availability unresolved.
Read across sources, the resale data both confirms and challenges the rental screen. The current resale price change was positive and the ZORI history is still rising, so neither series shows a current directional decline. Yet resale price growth was modest while the rent path has decelerated from its longer-run rate, and the ACS burden signal remains material. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is 2.86%, solely a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, and it excludes property-specific costs, financing, taxes, maintenance, and transaction terms. Resale liquidity can describe the for-sale market; it cannot validate rent comps or convert the screening ratio into property economics.
The decision boundary is therefore methodological. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types; ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes; HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard; and Redfin is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. None supplies a lease quote, an appraisal, operating statements, or a unit's actual availability. Useful property-level checks are the advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, concessions, listing status, and date; for a resale comparison, check the actual sale date, list price, property type, condition, and transaction terms. Those checks preserve the boundaries among the sources. The unresolved question is whether a specific home's current facts match the applicable source universe, rather than whether one area-level snapshot can answer every rental or purchase question.
","findings":[{"body":"Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows recorded sale activity, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes in the for-sale universe. It can test whether the resale side is moving differently from the rent index, but it does not observe lease transactions. The modest price change alongside active turnover supports a mixed reading rather than a conclusion about current rental demand or a home's economics.","title":"Resale liquidity is not a rent comp"},{"body":"Zillow's current ZIP ZORI remains above its prior same-month level, but the most recent annualized change trails the longer-period annualized changes. The historical record is complete in the supplied window, yet the observed drawdown and monthly-return variability mean that a single current index reading deserves context. These are retrospective observations only and do not tell readers where asking rents will move next.","title":"The rent path has slowed, not reversed"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI represents a blended typical observed asking-rent index. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities, while HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard. The ZCTA matched to the ZIP is a statistical geography, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. Comparisons are informative only when those distinct universes remain visible.","title":"Different rent sources answer different questions"},{"body":"The income-based asking-rent calculation is simple arithmetic using area-level median household income; it is not advice or a qualification test. The ACS burden share is survey evidence about occupied renter households and cannot establish the payment, utilities, or eligibility for a particular unit. Their tension is decision-useful because the two screens describe different populations, rent definitions, and time frames.","title":"Affordability is a pair of noninterchangeable screens"}],"risks":["A blended ZIP asking-rent index can differ from a unit's quoted rent because property type, bedroom count, utilities, lease duration, concessions, availability, and timing are not established by the index.","The ACS ZCTA survey and Zillow ZIP identifier are matched geographies but not identical delivery geographies; survey estimates describe occupied renter homes rather than live advertised inventory.","HUD's bedroom-specific standard makes the ladder internally scalable, but it remains an administrative benchmark; modelled bedroom estimates should not be substituted for observed bedroom-specific asking-rent comps.","Redfin sale records describe the for-sale market, and the rent-price screening ratio omits property-specific costs, financing, taxes, maintenance, condition, and transaction terms needed for economics."],"qa":[{"a":"The supplied geography pairs the Zillow ZIP market identifier with a Census ZCTA match so survey context can be compared with the index. A ZCTA is a statistical area, whereas a USPS delivery ZIP is an operational delivery construct. Their overlap does not make the ACS survey a direct count of active ZIP listings or current leases.","q":"Why does the report distinguish the ZIP label from the ZCTA?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates generated by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They preserve the relative HUD bedroom ladder, but neither Zillow nor HUD supplies a measured bedroom-specific asking-rent series in this packet. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not an asking-rent observation.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"It establishes only the arithmetic relationship between the current ZIP asking-rent index and area-level median household income under the stated rent-to-income convention. It is not financial advice, a household budget, an affordability finding for every renter, or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden measure remains a separate occupied-renter survey statistic.","q":"What does the income screen establish?"},{"a":"Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price is retained only as a cross-source screening ratio. It does not include operating costs, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancies at a property, capital needs, or transaction terms. Redfin observes resale activity rather than rental cash flow, so the ratio cannot be called a cap rate, property yield, or expected return.","q":"Why is ZORI divided by sale price not a yield?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1498.523697},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1525.874953},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1525.641304},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1508.248745},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1493.660804},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1514.817684},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1519.15089},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1517.974756},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1516.740994},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1494.458107},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1520.86951},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1519.470676},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1532.48088},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1527.662538},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1531.200966},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1552.6344},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1555.930455},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1567.849117},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1566.911242},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1565.554396},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1563.579679},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1569.76402},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1581.398107},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1587.151845},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1574.182436},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1571.120058},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1578.394671},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1583.996926},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1594.782922},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1586.671183},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1589.343058},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1596.486626},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1608.338177},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1625.258248},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1619.944767},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1626.261669},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1640.917319},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1656.275841},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1709.96714},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1685.552545},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1679.989901},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1657.302068},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1660.627101},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1661.544061},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1666.940915},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1650.60427},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1629.568757},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1566.62938},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1560.830489},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1560.795043},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1592.324428},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1612.678242},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1631.23827},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1656.146686},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1676.95363},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1698.583925},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1713.23244},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1730.089238},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1758.442454},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1801.690337},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1819.147941},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1833.976782},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1814.156708},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1823.21494},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1827.732003},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1849.806347},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1855.121177},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1858.577494},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1856.49439},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1851.60695},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1851.950183},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1857.34204},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1854.333046},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1851.370152},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1866.905703},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1872.581682},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1877.693629},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1867.458165},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1871.77095},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1873.275756},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1874.228404},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1878.359094},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1880.201042},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1884.028861},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1894.886846},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1901.013609},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1897.992445},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1897.504971},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1897.530984},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1906.924077},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1901.258732},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1913.043732},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1906.867384},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1914.741394},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1913.710366},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1928.906014},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1933.463724},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1943.967931},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1932.585953},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1931.623531},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1935.991244},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1945.429556},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1954.386279},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1951.269226},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1963.044845},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1962.489766},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1968.249775},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1958.616656},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1956.209889},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1951.414048},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1964.548383},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1969.542536},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1969.954354},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1964.100811}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":114,"firstPeriod":"2017-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":114,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1945.429556,"endRent":1964.100811,"change":0.009597497345722461,"cagr":0.009597497345722461},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1867.458165,"endRent":1964.100811,"change":0.0517509028107197,"cagr":0.016960999027666013},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1656.146686,"endRent":1964.100811,"change":0.18594616503673644,"cagr":0.03469653569738962}},"maxDrawdown":-0.0872368208198433,"annualizedVolatility":0.029717934028500325,"consecutiveReturnCount":113}}