At the June 2026 Zillow endpoint, the ZIP-level ZORI is $1,916 per month, a 1.15% year-over-year increase. It is Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types rather than a reading of one leased unit or one bedroom size. The label 98225 functions both as Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and as the matching Census ZCTA used here. A ZCTA is a statistical area designed for Census tabulation; it is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That identity match organizes the packet, but it does not collapse the distinct rental evidence into one measure. It supplies a current market signal, while the other sources answer different questions about occupied households, administrative standards, and resale activity.
Affordability is the central tension: the matched ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,523, 25.8% below the Zillow index. ACS observes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; ZORI tracks asking rents, so the two values have different time, occupancy, and cost universes. The gap is not evidence that an available unit will lease at either figure. Applying the 30% income share to the annualized index produces $76,640 in required household income. Against the reported ZCTA median household income of $63,941, the index equals 36.0% of income. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule.
The same ACS survey identifies 13,490 renter-occupied homes, of which 8,497 fall in the 30%-or-more rent-burden category, or 63.0% of renter households. This is a population-level survey burden measure and cannot establish the finances of a particular tenant or unit. The ZCTA has 24,205 housing units and a 6.58% vacancy rate; its stock includes 10,410 single-family units and 5,893 large-multifamily units. The table separately classifies vacant units for rent. These aggregate stock and vacancy facts do not show that any particular listing is open, habitable, or priced at an observed index.
Bedroom sizing needs a different interpretation. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder creates modelled monthly ZIP estimates: $1,562 for a studio, $1,595 for one bedroom, $1,916 for two bedrooms, $2,665 for three bedrooms, and $3,215 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,794, making the ZIP index 6.8% higher. HUD’s ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; it supplies the scaling pattern rather than direct observations of units marketed in this ZIP.
History tempers the current reading. Exact same-month annualized rent change was 1.15% over one year, 2.38% over three years, and 5.31% over five years. The recent direction therefore confirms that the observed index remained higher, but it breaks from the longer path’s faster growth pace. Coverage is 100% across the available history, comprising 68 monthly observations. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.55% limits the confidence a reader should place in one current rent snapshot. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 1.87%, documenting the largest historical decline from a prior peak. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,657 for momentum, 796 for stability, and 1,231 for balanced history; lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
For wider context, the Bellingham city context’s current rent is $1,976, while the Whatcom County context and the Bellingham, WA metro context each report $1,998. Those city, county, and metro figures are contextual benchmarks, not ZIP observations, and should remain separate from the Zillow index and ZCTA survey. They also use wider aggregates whose renter mix, stock mix, timing, and source construction may differ from the ZIP measures; the comparison is directional context, not a local rent estimate.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation presents a separate counterpoint. At its listed June 30, 2026 endpoint, median sold price was $625,139, down 8.43% year over year; 104 homes sold, and median marketing time was 13 days. Inventory stood at 112 homes, 9.62% higher than a year earlier, with 3.3 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.45%, and 43.6% of homes sold above list. All of those are direct ZIP for-sale signals, not rental transactions or rental comps. The resale-price decline challenges a simplistic conclusion drawn from the asking index’s modest annual gain and the income screen. The sold count and marketing time are direct resale-liquidity signals, not rental market activity.
Annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing it by the Redfin median sold price gives a 3.68% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. It does not translate direct resale evidence into property economics. Any property-level assessment would need the documented asking rent, bedroom count, lease-specific treatment of selected utilities, current availability and condition, and sale comparables matched for timing and property characteristics. Neither ZCTA vacancy nor the burden statistic proves availability or affordability for one unit. The unresolved question is whether such unit-specific documents support the general index, survey, and resale evidence without treating them as interchangeable.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current $1,916 ZIP index and the ACS $1,523 median gross rent answer different questions. Zillow describes typical observed asking rents across rental types; ACS summarizes occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. The 25.8% difference is decision-relevant, but it cannot be assigned to a specific available home or interpreted as a direct lease-price spread.","title":"Current asking rent exceeds the survey rent"},{"body":"Recent rent direction is positive but subdued relative to earlier history. The exact same-month annualized gain is 1.15% over one year, compared with 2.38% over three years and 5.31% over five years. Complete coverage and a limited historical drawdown improve traceability, while the slower recent pace means the current index should not be presented as a continuation forecast.","title":"Growth remains positive but has slowed"},{"body":"On the ACS income lens, the $76,640 income associated with a 30% share of Zillow’s index exceeds the ZCTA median household income of $63,941. In the same survey, 63.0% of renter households are in the 30%-or-more burden category. This is an aggregate affordability and burden screen, not advice, a qualification standard, or proof of financial stress in a given rental.","title":"The income screen is tighter than the ZCTA median"},{"body":"Redfin’s ZIP resale measures pull against a rent-only reading: the median sold price declined 8.43% while Zillow’s asking-rent index rose 1.15%. Yet 104 homes sold in a rolling-three-month window and median marketing time was 13 days. Those for-sale observations describe resale activity and do not confirm rental demand, rent collection, or property-level economics.","title":"Resale evidence complicates a rent-only reading"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended asking-rent index spans rental types and cannot establish the rent, concessions, utility treatment, lease term, condition, or availability of a particular bedroom configuration.","The matched ACS ZCTA is a statistical approximation rather than a USPS delivery geography, and its five-year occupied-household survey carries stated margins of error plus different timing and cost treatment from current listings.","The bedroom ladder is mechanically modelled from HUD standards and ZIP ZORI. It is not a measured distribution of studio through four-bedroom asking rents, and unit mix can differ.","Redfin resale figures report a rolling-three-month for-sale sample, not rental transactions. The rent-to-price screen excludes property-specific operating costs, financing, taxes, condition, and transaction terms, so it cannot express net economics."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,916 figure is Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI at the June 2026 endpoint. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than an ACS survey value, a HUD standard, or a direct reading for a stated bedroom count. Its currentness tracks asking-rent direction, but its blended construction limits unit-level precision.","q":"What exactly does the current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"The ACS figure comes from the matched ZCTA’s 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes and measures median gross rent, including selected utilities. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow instead reports a current ZIP asking-rent index; timing, occupied status, utility treatment, and construction differ.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent not a direct substitute for Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"They are modelled monthly estimates built by scaling the $1,916 ZIP ZORI through the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Thus the studio through four-bedroom figures provide proportional screening points, not observed asking rents, leases, or rental comps for matching units.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates created?"},{"a":"No. It divides annualized ZORI by Redfin’s direct ZIP median sold price, producing a cross-source screening ratio. It does not include property-specific costs or cash flows and is neither a cap rate, net return, expected return, nor property yield. Redfin remains for-sale evidence, whereas Zillow remains asking-rent evidence.","q":"Does the rent-to-price ratio measure property return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1395.293127},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1414.003304},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1448.692083},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1421.627354},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1427.393441},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1426.375468},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1464.165387},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1479.253505},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1497.993061},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1518.613616},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1545.34022},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1562.145406},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1573.059519},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1581.037886},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1581.603686},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1609.995638},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1626.313608},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1654.601232},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1653.764721},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1673.878152},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1693.372989},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1714.567081},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1728.167346},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1734.035849},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1733.656841},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1730.775166},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1744.694227},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1754.150209},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1768.889816},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1769.150871},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1780.675248},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1785.696779},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1783.647038},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1786.58661},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1792.732934},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1821.453691},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1837.493829},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1840.734181},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1824.773969},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1823.679141},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1829.48262},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1834.923344},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1830.591638},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1834.272633},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1847.143098},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1859.516826},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1860.192925},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1855.011794},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1857.461966},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1869.71107},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1873.599333},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1871.381798},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1871.409238},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1888.245792},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1899.031963},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1894.313704},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1892.61362},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1888.242627},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1892.50257},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1891.798122},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1892.965638},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1892.824376},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1904.632911},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1913.268983},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1915.891212},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1907.949222},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1907.897933},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1916.079829}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":68,"firstPeriod":"2020-11-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":68,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1894.313704,"endRent":1916.079829,"change":0.01149024311762048,"cagr":0.01149024311762048},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1785.696779,"endRent":1916.079829,"change":0.07301522382373071,"cagr":0.023768967903618377},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1479.253505,"endRent":1916.079829,"change":0.29530186849210827,"cagr":0.053111119541059626}},"maxDrawdown":-0.018682181891926497,"annualizedVolatility":0.02551937696157495,"consecutiveReturnCount":67}}