At $2,036, the June 2026 ZIP-level Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) for 98226 presents a mixed historical signal. Its exact same-month changes are -0.17% over one year, +3.05% annualized over three years, and +5.61% annualized over five years. Recent direction therefore modestly breaks from the longer measured upward path rather than confirming it. The series carries a high-variability designation: annualized monthly-return variability is 4.10%, and maximum drawdown was -2.74%. That variability and drawdown mean a reader should put less confidence in one current rent snapshot than in an unusually steady series. The history has 100% coverage at the stated endpoint. These are backward-looking measurements, not a forecast or an investment recommendation. ZORI itself is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a rent quote for a particular home.
ACS offers a substantially different evidence universe. The matched 98226 ZCTA in ACS 2024 five-year data has a $1,620 median gross rent, while ZORI is 25.7% higher. The five-digit 98226 label is Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA label. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities; it is neither a contemporaneous asking-rent observation nor a measure of vacant listings. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, even when the five-digit labels match. Accordingly, the difference between ACS and Zillow is a source, timing, and construction difference before it is any conclusion about a property. Neither figure shows what a particular landlord will charge, which utilities will be assigned to a tenant, or the terms of an available lease.
Bedroom comparisons require a third evidence universe. The local FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,794. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and its local studio-to-four-bedroom ladder is used only to scale the ZIP ZORI. That method produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,660 for a studio, $1,694 for one bedroom, $2,036 for two bedrooms, $2,832 for three bedrooms, and $3,416 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: the procedure preserves the local HUD ladder's relative steps and does not establish what any size is currently leasing for. The matching ZORI and modelled two-bedroom figure reflects the method's anchor, not independent confirmation of a two-bedroom asking-rent.
On an income screen, the ZIP's ACS five-year median household income is $79,375. Applying the stated 30% share to the $2,036 monthly ZORI yields $81,440 of annual income and an asking-rent-to-income calculation of 30.8%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; household income, payment terms, utilities, and unit selection may differ from the measures used here. ACS also reports 4,294 of 7,544 renter households spending 30% or more of income on gross rent, or 56.9%. That is a survey-based burden statistic for occupied renter homes, not proof that an individual unit is affordable or unaffordable, and it should not be equated with Zillow asking rent.
Physical stock provides a separate frame for that burden and asking-rent comparison. The ZCTA reports 20,980 housing units, a 4.4% vacancy rate, and 235 vacant units classified as for rent. Single-family homes outnumber units in large multifamily structures in that stock. These Census categories show composition and reported vacancy classification, rather than the number, condition, asking price, bedroom count, or lease readiness of homes presently available to a searcher. A unit recorded as vacant for rent cannot establish availability on a particular date, and the rate cannot prove pricing pressure for a particular unit. Stock, vacancy, and renter burden are population-level context, not property-specific evidence.
For wider context only, the Bellingham city-scope context rent is $1,975.84, while Whatcom County county-scope and Bellingham, WA metro-scope context rents are each $1,998; all are broader than the ZIP-level index and are not interchangeable with it. The Whatcom County county-scope vacancy rate is 9.2%, above the ZIP rate already stated. The Bellingham, WA metro-scope rent-to-income measure is 29.31%, below the ZIP's calculated screen. These comparisons name their scope because city, county, and metro values are context only; they do not define an individual ZIP listing or demonstrate equivalent conditions across those geographies.
Several limits remain after the cross-source comparison. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,813 for momentum, 2,651 for stability, and 2,540 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher. They summarize the observed historical series, not rental quality, future performance, or a recommendation. Before using this report for a specific listing, property-level checks should establish the advertised asking rent, bedroom count and unit type, listing date and actual availability, lease duration and concessions, deposits or recurring charges, and which utilities are included. Those checks are necessary because index values, ACS responses, HUD standards, and broad-area context cannot replace a specific listing's terms. Does the documented unit match the evidence universe being used to assess it?
","findings":[{"body":"The June 2026 ZORI is $2,036. The exact same-month one-year movement is -0.17%, while the three-year and five-year annualized rates remain positive. This makes the latest annual direction a mild departure from the longer recorded path. High variability and the observed drawdown mean the current value is informative but should not be treated as a stable, property-level price.","title":"A one-year decline follows longer gains"},{"body":"Zillow, ACS, and HUD answer different questions. ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rent across rental types, ACS gross rent surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, and HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard. The ZIP-to-ZCTA correspondence is statistical rather than postal. The numerical gap therefore cannot, by itself, identify a current unit's rent or utility terms.","title":"The source gap is not a direct rent comparison"},{"body":"The five bedroom figures were created by applying the local HUD ladder to the ZIP ZORI. They preserve a relative studio-through-four-bedroom scale, with the modelled two-bedroom result equal to the direct index by construction. These figures aid like-for-like screening but are not measurements of advertised rents, signed leases, or availability in any bedroom category.","title":"Bedroom figures apply a HUD-derived scale"},{"body":"The income comparison is a 30% arithmetic screen, not an underwriting test or qualification decision. ACS burden and vacancy figures summarize occupied households and classified housing units, respectively. They do not reveal a specific listing's concessions, utility responsibility, payment schedule, condition, deposits, or whether it can be rented now. City, county, and metro statistics remain broader-scope reference points.","title":"Affordability and stock require separate verification"}],"risks":["The current Zillow index combines rental types and is a typical observed asking-rent statistic, so applying it to a single building or unit can misstate its actual advertised terms.","The matched ZCTA is a Census statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS uses a five-year occupied-household survey; geographic and universe mismatch can distort direct comparisons.","The high-variability historical series includes a recent negative one-year result after longer gains, so a single endpoint may receive more confidence than the backward-looking record warrants.","Vacancy, burden, and stock measures describe aggregate classifications. They cannot establish that a particular home is rentable, affordable for a household, appropriately sized, or offered with the same utility treatment."],"qa":[{"a":"At $2,036 in June 2026, the ZIP ZORI has a -0.17% exact same-month one-year movement, whereas the three-year and five-year annualized movements are positive. The recent decline therefore departs modestly from the longer measured trajectory. Because the series is designated high variability and is backward-looking, it does not establish a future rent path or a price for an individual unit.","q":"How should the recent ZORI direction be read?"},{"a":"ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rent at ZIP level across rental types. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area, not a USPS delivery ZIP. Timing, geography, occupancy status, utility treatment, and the statistic itself differ, so the figures answer different questions.","q":"Why should ACS median gross rent not be treated as Zillow asking rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by scaling the direct ZIP ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The exercise carries relative bedroom differences into a ZIP-scale estimate, but it does not observe advertisements, signed leases, current vacancies, or terms for any bedroom type.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts actual observed asking rents?"},{"a":"Verify the advertised rent, bedroom count, unit type, availability date, lease term, concessions, deposits or recurring charges, and included utilities. These checks matter because ZORI, ACS, HUD, vacancy, burden, and city, county, or metro context are aggregate or standardized measures. They cannot show whether one home is available, what it will cost after terms, or whether its gross-rent treatment matches the comparison.","q":"What should be verified for a specific listing?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1460.072635},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1471.168765},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1475.998648},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1493.77357},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1509.370335},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1549.719854},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1576.447998},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1614.064267},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1645.905476},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1665.756153},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1746.700713},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1745.877816},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1782.264492},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1733.453786},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1761.326315},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1808.835635},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1834.876625},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1850.47807},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1816.547597},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1810.302856},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1821.199062},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1844.083544},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1845.307568},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1861.534451},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1847.705437},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1883.657091},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1892.051422},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1889.589542},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1881.143883},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1860.928995},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1892.732424},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1908.427562},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1935.096291},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1932.152104},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1898.654681},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1897.628808},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1924.713301},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1937.887959},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1935.553906},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1919.516716},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1933.05327},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1936.845587},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1944.718935},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1966.297074},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1949.31813},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1950.003641},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1964.449778},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1994.582038},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1995.433502},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2012.423429},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2020.37634},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2030.237605},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2019.079368},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2039.856471},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2038.500678},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2028.011592},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2038.001267},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2046.073723},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2060.304954},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2045.035414},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2042.883382},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2026.65328},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2027.771627},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2035.040908},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2044.46818},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2036.447368}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2039.856471,"endRent":2036.447368,"change":-0.0016712465060488846,"cagr":-0.0016712465060488846},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1860.928995,"endRent":2036.447368,"change":0.09431760882418838,"cagr":0.030499524827074742},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1549.719854,"endRent":2036.447368,"change":0.31407451659324237,"cagr":0.05614609751923272}},"maxDrawdown":-0.027386903694202047,"annualizedVolatility":0.04101933614227938,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}