ZIP 98405 presents a measured split: the current rent index has cooled while direct resale indicators remain tight. The June Zillow ZORI is $1,560, down 1.46% on the one-year same-month measure. That recent decline breaks from a longer upward path: the three-year annualized change is 2.49% and the five-year annualized change is 4.26%. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market-level snapshot rather than a quoted rent for a particular available home. The backward-looking record shows modest movement rather than a large historic collapse, but the current negative direction means the snapshot should not be read as confirmation of continuing rent growth.
History coverage is unusually complete in the supplied record, with 138 observations and 100% coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.15%, indicating that month-to-month rent-index changes have generally been limited; that supports moderate confidence in the broad current ZORI level. The worst peak-to-trough drawdown was 3.02%, however, and the current one-year decline is consistent with that cooling history rather than a new high. Transparent national discovery ranks place momentum at 2,206, stability at 1,844, and the balanced measure at 2,412 among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are stronger. These are descriptive discovery measures of prior rent behavior, not forecasts, investment signals, or recommendations.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder; they are not measured bedroom rents. The resulting monthly estimates move from $1,294 for a studio and $1,339 for one bedroom to $1,560 for two bedrooms, $2,041 for three bedrooms, and $2,400 for four bedrooms. Their spacing reflects the HUD bedroom pattern, not observed rents for units with those bedroom counts in 98405. HUD Fair Market Rent or Small Area Fair Market Rent is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its two-bedroom standard is $2,501. The substantially higher HUD figure therefore should not be treated as evidence that typical two-bedroom listings rent at that level.
Source scope is critical for the affordability reading. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched ACS five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,551, essentially 0.6% below the current asking-rent index. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI represents asking rents; the near match does not make the measures interchangeable. A 30% required-income screen converts the $1,560 monthly asking-rent index to $62,400 annually, compared with median household income of $75,946. That screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS also reports 3,183 of 5,802 renter households, or 54.9%, as paying 30% or more of income toward rent, a population-level burden measure rather than proof about any household or unit.
The matched ZCTA housing base contains 12,015 units, of which 11,421 are occupied, for a 4.9% vacancy rate. Renters occupy 5,802 homes and owners occupy 5,619, making the renter share 50.8%. Housing stock includes 7,863 single-family units and 2,039 units in large multifamily structures, so neither stock category alone defines the ZIP’s rental inventory. Of the vacant inventory, 299 units are identified as vacant for rent. That count and the overall vacancy rate describe the survey area’s housing status, but neither establishes availability, condition, concession terms, lease price, or vacancy at a particular property. The burden result also needs that same restraint: it indicates widespread survey-reported pressure, not the affordability of a specific listing.
Broader comparisons show that the ZIP’s current $1,560 asking-rent index sits below the Tacoma city context asking-rent figure of $1,749, the Pierce County context figure of $1,962, and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro context figure of $2,269. Those city, county, and metro values are wider-geography context, not substitutes for ZIP evidence. The ZIP’s renter share also exceeds the Tacoma city context share and the Pierce County context share, reinforcing that the local tenure mix differs from those broader comparators. Conversely, the metro’s apartment-vacancy measure is a broader apartment-market statistic, not a replacement for the ZCTA-wide vacancy rate. These scope differences matter when comparing a ZIP asking-rent index with survey housing conditions and regional context.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation points in the opposite direction from the recent rent cooldown. The median sold price is $488,778, up 2.9% year over year, with 100 homes sold and a median seven days on market. Inventory is reported at 60 homes and months of supply at 1.8, both for the ZIP for-sale market rather than rental transactions. Sale-to-list signals are similarly firm: the average sale-to-list ratio is 101.64%, 45.4% of sales closed above list, and 66.47% went off market within two weeks. Redfin therefore confirms active resale liquidity and price firmness even as the one-year rent index declines. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 3.83% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or measure of property-level economics.
The principal decision tension is therefore not a single directional story: a relatively low current ZIP asking-rent index and recent rent cooling coexist with strong direct ZIP resale activity, while ACS shows substantial renter burden. None of those facts identifies a particular unit’s achievable rent, expense structure, lease-up pace, or resale outcome. Property-level checks need to distinguish current comparable asking rents from signed leases, verify bedroom count and utility responsibility, identify concessions and recurring fees, inspect condition and availability, and compare actual listing and closing records with the relevant time window. The most useful follow-up question is whether a specific property’s rent, utilities, vacancy exposure, and sale evidence align with these separate ZIP-level and survey-level measures rather than with a single blended headline number.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow ZORI is $1,560 and declined 1.46% over one year, while the three-year and five-year annualized changes remain positive. That is a break from the longer path, not proof of a durable reversal. Complete history coverage and relatively contained variability support use of the current index as a broad benchmark, but not as a forecast.","title":"Cooling rent index, positive longer history"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled ZIP estimates produced by applying the HUD bedroom ladder to the overall ZORI. They are useful for a consistent size-based screen, but they are not observed bedroom-specific asking rents. HUD’s administrative Fair Market Rent standard is also not a listing-rent measure, even where its ladder shapes the estimates.","title":"Bedroom figures require careful interpretation"},{"body":"The ZORI-based 30% income screen is below area median household income, yet ACS reports that 54.9% of renter households pay at least 30% of income toward rent. The difference reflects distinct calculations and populations. The income screen is arithmetic on a market index, whereas ACS burden is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter households.","title":"Affordability evidence is mixed by measure"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale evidence shows rising sold prices, short marketing time, limited months of supply, and above-list sale signals. Those measures describe for-sale transactions and should not be converted into rental performance claims. Still, they create a clear tension with the recent ZORI decline: resale liquidity appears firm while the asking-rent index is cooling.","title":"Resale firmness challenges the rent-only reading"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD bedroom standards, and Redfin resale records measure different populations and transaction stages; combining them without scope labels can create a misleading conclusion about any individual rental property.","The current rent snapshot has low historical variability but a negative one-year change, so a single asking-rent reading may understate recent direction changes or differences among property types, bedroom counts, and lease terms.","ACS vacancy, renter burden, and household income are survey-area measures with sampling uncertainty and cannot establish a specific home’s availability, tenant payment capacity, physical condition, utilities, or realized rent.","The annualized rent-to-sold-price screening ratio excludes operating costs, taxes, insurance, financing, maintenance, turnover, concessions, and property variation; it cannot support a net-income or return conclusion."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Similar dollar levels can be informative as a broad cross-check, but they do not show that new listings, leases, or occupied homes have the same rent structure.","q":"Why can the current asking-rent index and ACS median gross rent be close while still meaning different things?"},{"a":"The bedroom ladder scales the overall ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom-specific pattern. Its studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, and four-bedroom outputs are modelled monthly estimates, not measured rents from ZIP listings. The method provides internally consistent size differences, but it cannot capture a particular building’s amenities, utilities, condition, or concessions.","q":"What does the bedroom ladder actually estimate?"},{"a":"Redfin is direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence, not rental-comparable evidence. Higher sold prices, rapid marketing, limited supply, and sale-to-list strength indicate firm for-sale conditions in that observation window. They challenge a simplistic interpretation of rent cooling as universal housing weakness, but they do not demonstrate that rents will rise or that a property will produce a particular return.","q":"How should the Redfin results be read alongside the rent history?"},{"a":"The remaining evidence needs to be property specific: current comparable asking rents, signed-lease evidence where available, bedroom count, utility obligations, recurring fees, concessions, condition, days vacant, listing history, and relevant sale records. Those checks separate a broad ZIP index and survey statistics from the economics and availability of one identifiable home.","q":"What property-level information remains necessary after reviewing this ZIP report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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