At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow ZORI for 98406 is $2,193 per month. The matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA reports median gross rent of $1,764, making the ZORI level 24.32% higher across those unlike measures. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Scope and time differences therefore prevent the gap from serving as a current lease comparison or evidence of a change in any one dwelling.
The income and burden readings do not resolve that gap. A 30% screen on the $2,193 monthly index implies $87,720 in annual income, compared with the ZCTA ACS median household income of $104,264. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; it compares a ZIP asking-rent index with a survey household-income statistic. The ACS burden tabulation places 2,202 of 4,083 renter households at or above the 30% threshold, a 53.93% share. That result belongs to occupied renter homes in the survey and cannot show what any particular renter pays today, what utilities an individual lease includes, or whether a particular household could meet the screen. It nevertheless makes the difference between an aggregate income comparison and the reported burden distribution a central reading caution.
History gives the current index an upward recent path, but only backward-looking context. Exact same-month Zillow ZORI changes were 5.67% over one year, 4.80% annualized over three years, and 4.38% annualized over five years. Because the newest rate exceeds each longer annualized change, the latest direction confirms and quickens rather than breaks from the longer rising path. The historical record has 100% coverage across the provided monthly series. Annualized monthly-return variability of 3.03% means movement around a single current reading has been real, so confidence in one snapshot should not be confused with confidence in a fixed quote. Separately, the worst peak-to-trough drawdown measured 2.16%, documenting a prior decline rather than a uniformly rising series. Transparent national discovery ranks are 282 for momentum, 1,682 for stability, and 473 for balanced, with lower ranks stronger; they summarize past data and are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations.
Bedroom detail should be read even more carefully: the modelled ZIP estimates are $1,819 for a studio, $1,882 for one bedroom, $2,193 for two, $2,869 for three, and $3,373 for four. They are not measured bedroom rents. Instead, the estimates scale the ZIP ZORI level by the local HUD ladder, so the two-bedroom figure matches the overall index by construction. HUD's $2,501 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent observation. The HUD ladder can organize the relative model, but it cannot establish the current asking rent, lease terms, or utility treatment for a bedroom category. These parallel rent measures answer different questions and should not be substituted for one another.
The matched ZCTA has 10,925 housing units, of which 368 are vacant for a 3.37% vacancy rate; it also records 4,083 renter-occupied units. Its listed structure counts include 7,490 single-family units and 1,409 large multifamily units. This is a housing-stock and vacancy inventory, not confirmation that a given unit is advertised, rentable, vacant for rent, or suitable for a renter. For wider context only, Tacoma city has a context rent of $1,749, Pierce County has a context rent of $1,962, and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro has a context rent of $2,269. The ZIP index lies above the named city and county context values and below the named metro context value, but city, county, and metro evidence is not a substitute for ZIP evidence and does not erase the ACS/ZORI universe difference.
ZIP resale evidence conveys a different, direct market read. In the rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation, the median sold price was $654,852, up 3.27% from its annual comparison; 92 homes sold and median marketing time was 6 days. Inventory stood at 46 homes and months of supply at 1.5. Sale-to-list averaged 102.02%, while 50.61% of sales closed above list. Those are for-sale/resale measurements, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or evidence about income collected by owners. Within that resale universe, the sold count, brief marketing time, supply measure, and sale-to-list results describe liquidity and pricing signals directly observed in the ZIP. They cannot be used to infer an asking rent for any house or apartment.
The clearest cross-source tension is that the rent history and resale observation share a recent upward direction, yet they do not establish the same economic result. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals 4.02%, solely a cross-source screening ratio. It joins an observed asking-rent index to a resale median; it is not a measure of property operating economics, a lease outcome, or an investment result. The resale evidence therefore confirms the direction of the recent rent/history signal, while challenging any attempt to read the income screen or the ACS burden share straight through to a purchase transaction. Likewise, the lower ZCTA gross-rent median and survey burden data do not contradict a resale sale-to-list result because the observations have different participants, timing, and definitions. No causal link is supplied among them.
Several limits matter before moving from these aggregate readings to a property. ZORI does not supply the rent, concession, bedroom count, condition, or availability of a specific listing. ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey rather than a current ZIP rent roll; HUD is a standard; and the rent history is a backward-looking measurement, not a forecast. Redfin reports rolling ZIP resales and cannot show rental transactions. The vacancy rate and burden share identify aggregate conditions only and cannot prove vacancy, affordability, or payment burden for a particular unit. A property-level applicability review would need the actual offered rent, confirmed bedroom configuration, utility inclusion, lease term, concessions, availability, and—where a sale is involved—the actual listing or sale status and physical condition. The unresolved question is whether those unreported unit facts resemble the broad index and survey inputs used here?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 Zillow ZORI for 98406 is $2,193, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA median gross rent is $1,764 and includes selected utilities for occupied renter homes. The difference is informative but not a current lease-comparable spread because timing, universe, and measure differ.","title":"Current asking index versus survey rent"},{"body":"Exact same-month ZORI growth was 5.67% over one year, 4.80% annualized over three years, and 4.38% annualized over five years. The acceleration confirms the longer upward path. Monthly-return variability annualized to 3.03%, while the historical peak-to-trough decline reached 2.16%, so a single index level should not be treated as an immutable quote.","title":"History confirms an upward path"},{"body":"The 30% income screen yields $87,720 against a $104,264 ZCTA median household income, but it is arithmetic rather than advice or a qualification rule. ACS also estimates 53.93% of renter households pay at least 30% of income toward rent. Those survey results cannot demonstrate affordability or utility costs for one available unit.","title":"Income screen and burden remain separate"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a $654,852 median sold price, 92 sales, six median days on market, and 1.5 months of supply. The 4.02% annualized ZORI-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio. Resale observations are not rental transactions and cannot establish property operating results.","title":"Resale liquidity is not rental evidence"}],"risks":["The ZORI-to-ACS gap can be overstated if treated as a market-wide rent change, because ZORI tracks observed asking rents while ACS is a multiyear survey of occupied homes that includes selected utilities and different timing.","The ZCTA vacancy rate and renter burden estimate are aggregate measures; neither identifies a vacancy, rent amount, lease availability, utility treatment, or payment burden for a particular house or apartment.","Historical momentum, variability, drawdown, coverage, and national discovery ranks summarize measurements through the endpoint. They do not establish continuing rent movement, future pricing, or a result for an investment or individual property.","Redfin’s rolling ZIP resale data can indicate for-sale liquidity, but its price, supply, marketing, and sale-to-list indicators do not provide rental comparables, operating costs, or unit-specific economics."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across rental types at the stated current endpoint. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not the same as a USPS delivery ZIP, so the figures must remain separate.","q":"Why is the current Zillow figure higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent. The estimates organize a relative bedroom pattern but do not report observed bedroom rents, availability, or actual lease terms.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts measured rents for available units?"},{"a":"The annualized ZORI divided by Redfin median sold price is intentionally only a cross-source screening ratio. It combines an asking-rent index with a resale median from a rolling-three-month for-sale observation. It cannot establish operating costs, actual lease revenue, or an outcome for a particular property.","q":"What does the ZORI-to-sale-price screen measure?"},{"a":"Applicability to a specific listing cannot be determined from this packet. The missing facts include offered rent, confirmed bedroom count, utility inclusion, lease length, concessions, availability, condition, and current listing or sale status. Aggregate vacancy, burden, ZORI, and resale figures cannot substitute for those property-level facts.","q":"What unit-level facts are absent from this packet?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1327.948055},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1317.535072},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1319.44338},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1322.35403},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1343.341017},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1359.346562},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1357.137703},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1361.150741},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1365.819013},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1388.259936},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1388.286415},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1396.334516},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1394.433588},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1416.574352},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1414.506469},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1421.347139},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1430.96358},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1426.817191},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1442.880988},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1443.763545},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1471.995785},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1473.034951},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1494.032607},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1500.213122},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1536.175925},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1552.005375},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1585.255808},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1553.165851},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1571.096877},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1564.370287},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1572.339269},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1576.478825},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1582.962442},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1594.460921},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1596.884372},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1617.905446},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1629.11617},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1640.986805},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1635.133339},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1670.755923},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1709.235893},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1766.958767},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1769.650509},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1772.862989},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1780.180697},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1811.95169},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1827.45714},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1823.252311},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1820.649996},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1837.134062},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1885.975991},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1887.556517},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1873.281387},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1846.764586},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1871.489139},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1890.287675},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1889.121541},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1876.406927},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1888.369832},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1909.838239},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1926.132614},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1926.268775},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1912.386316},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1897.03362},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1898.91039},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1901.449783},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1904.972242},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1912.314983},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1932.582047},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1946.783468},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1944.425589},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1960.028543},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1956.792908},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1978.598324},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1958.931826},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1980.660896},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1978.529148},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2011.961461},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2006.862247},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2021.237976},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2004.519878},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2007.822508},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1998.061052},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2008.486278},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2030.138192},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2045.112885},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2060.896756},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2059.956546},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2068.633619},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2051.187014},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2074.981309},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2072.817553},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2092.411277},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2102.062909},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2125.963747},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2124.193253},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2124.45306},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2120.840637},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2139.644163},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2153.296031},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2168.912457},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2188.006449},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2192.664103}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":103,"firstPeriod":"2017-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":103,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2074.981309,"endRent":2192.664103,"change":0.05671511039138721,"cagr":0.05671511039138721},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1904.972242,"endRent":2192.664103,"change":0.15102155016072927,"cagr":0.04799968380351727},"5":{"y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