ZIP 98422 carries a mixed signal rather than a single clean reading: the asking-rent record has continued upward, while the direct resale record combines a lower median sold price with rapid marketing and above-list transactions. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The resulting evidence should therefore be read as a ZIP-market and matched-survey profile, not as a statement about every address that may use this mailing label. The central decision tension is whether a relatively steady asking-rent path remains persuasive when the for-sale price measure has recently softened.
Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for June is $2,185. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not a lease-level rent quote or a bedroom-specific measurement. The matched Census ZCTA ACS five-year survey reports median gross rent of $2,180, with a $85 margin of error; that survey covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, making its near match to ZORI informative but not interchangeable. The FY2026 HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,501. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so the lower ZORI level should not be treated as evidence that typical advertised two-bedroom units rent at one particular amount.
The backward-looking Zillow history shows same-month annualized growth of 2.6% over one year, 3.9% over three years, and 4.7% over five years. Recent direction therefore remains positive but breaks from the longer path in pace: the latest annual change is slower than both longer-period measurements. The series has full coverage across 72 monthly observations, supporting confidence that the history is not a sparse-data artifact. Annualized monthly-return variability of 3.1% indicates that month-to-month index movement has not been perfectly smooth. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 1.7%, a limited historical retreat that tempers but does not erase the upward path. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 917 for momentum, 1,822 for stability, and 1,240 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations; the moderate stability reading means one current ZORI snapshot deserves more caution than the uninterrupted growth rates alone might suggest.
The bedroom ladder is best used as a proportional model rather than a set of observed local bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,812 for a studio, $1,875 for one bedroom, $2,185 for two bedrooms, $2,859 for three bedrooms, and $3,361 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. Their shape reflects the local HUD ladder, whose administrative standards rise with bedroom count, while their overall level is anchored to the ZIP asking-rent index. Unit quality, utility responsibility, concessions, tenancy status, and available inventory can all make an actual advertised unit differ from the modelled figure.
The arithmetic 30% required-income screen places annual household income at $87,400 to carry the $2,185 monthly ZORI at that ratio. This is an affordability screen only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA’s median household income is $118,604, with a $6,941 margin of error, and the simple asking-rent-to-income comparison is 22.1%. Those area-level figures do not establish what any renter earns or pays. ACS nevertheless reports that 46.9% of renter households, or 825 of 1,759, were rent burdened at 30% or more; the burden-count margin of error is 171 households. That evidence makes the area-level income comparison incomplete: a rent level below the simple median-income screen can coexist with substantial burden among occupied renter households.
Housing composition supplies important context for that burden result. The matched ZCTA has 8,313 housing units, including 7,105 single-family units and 141 units in large multifamily structures. Renters represent 21.9% of occupied homes, while the overall vacancy rate is 3.3%; neither measure proves availability, condition, pricing, or vacancy at a specific rental. As wider context only, the City of Tacoma context rent is $1,749, Pierce County context rent is $1,962, and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA metro context rent is $2,269. The ZIP’s asking-rent index is thus above the named city and county context values but below the named metro context value. Those broader geographies are comparison frames, not rental comps and not substitutes for the ZIP-level ZORI or ZCTA survey measures.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $665,150 median sold price, down 6.3% year over year. At the same time, 62 homes sold with a median six days on market; there were 139 active listings, inventory of 68 homes, and 3.3 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 100.9%, 36.7% of sales were above list, and 55.5% went off market within two weeks. These are for-sale market observations, not rental transactions or property economics. The rapid marketing and above-list signals sit in tension with the lower median sale price: liquidity indicators look firm even as the price statistic is weaker. That resale-price decline challenges an overly simple reading of the positive rent history, while the rent path and quick resale activity together prevent the price decline from being read as a standalone market verdict. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 3.94%, but it is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The evidence is strongest for describing separate market measures and weakest for evaluating a particular home or lease. ZORI does not identify unit condition, lease term, utilities, concessions, or actual executed rent; ACS has survey timing and sampling uncertainty; HUD standards are administrative; and Redfin resale metrics do not supply rental comparables. A property-level review should verify current same-unit advertisements, bedroom count, included utilities, concessions, lease duration, and whether the unit’s observed asking rent is comparable with the modelled ladder. It should also check the specific home’s sale history, list-to-sale record, active competing listings, and physical attributes before connecting any ZIP-wide rent screen to an individual property. The key unresolved question is whether the specific unit’s current terms resemble the broad ZIP index closely enough for these separate datasets to be decision-relevant.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI rose at a 2.6% same-month annualized pace over one year, below the three-year and five-year rates. The history is complete across 72 monthly observations, which supports the measurement record, but the stability discovery rank is weaker than the momentum rank. This makes the current rent level useful as a benchmark, while limiting confidence in treating one month as a stable endpoint.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but has slowed"},{"body":"The Zillow asking-rent index is $2,185 and the ACS ZCTA median gross rent is $2,180, although they measure different universes. ZORI tracks blended asking rents across rental types; ACS reflects occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The near numerical match does not convert either measure into a lease-level comparable, but it reduces the appearance of a large source-level gap at the aggregate level.","title":"Survey rent and asking rent are unusually close"},{"body":"The $87,400 annual income required by the 30% arithmetic screen is below the ZCTA median household income, yet 46.9% of surveyed renter households were burdened at 30% or more. That contrast does not identify any household’s circumstances. It does show why median-income comparisons alone cannot establish broad renter affordability or a particular applicant’s ability to pay.","title":"Area-level affordability has a distributional tension"},{"body":"Redfin’s ZIP resale data show a lower year-over-year median sold price, but also short marketing time, sales above list, and a sale-to-list average above 100%. These are direct for-sale observations rather than rental evidence. The combination challenges a one-directional market conclusion and makes the 3.94% rent-price screening ratio descriptive only, not a measure of property income or return.","title":"Resale liquidity and price direction do not fully agree"}],"risks":["The ZIP label and matched ZCTA overlap for this analysis but are not the same geography as a USPS delivery ZIP. Boundary, survey, and mailing-area differences can affect how well area statistics fit a specific address.","ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, while ACS gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Neither source confirms current achieved rent, concessions, utility charges, lease terms, or condition for a particular unit.","The bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the HUD ladder. HUD standards are administrative rather than observed asking rents, so the estimates should not replace unit-specific advertised or executed rental evidence.","Redfin measures a rolling three-month for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price, inventory, marketing time, and sale-to-list metrics cannot establish a home’s operating costs, financing terms, net income, or future results."],"qa":[{"a":"They answer related but distinct questions. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Their close levels provide context, but neither measure validates the other as a lease-level rent quote.","q":"Why are Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent shown together if they measure different things?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom values are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI level using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, lease transactions, or advertised-unit averages. Actual unit rents can differ because of condition, utilities, concessions, lease duration, and other unmeasured characteristics.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for studio through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"It performs arithmetic on the monthly ZIP ZORI level: annual income sufficient for rent to equal 30% of gross income. It is not advice, an applicant qualification standard, or proof of affordability for a household. The ACS burden statistic is separate survey evidence and does not determine the situation of any particular renter.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen establish?"},{"a":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP data describe for-sale activity only, including sold price, selling pace, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. They can highlight tension with the backward-looking rent record, but they are not rental comparables. The annualized ZORI-to-price calculation is merely a cross-source screening ratio and cannot measure cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"How should the Redfin resale information be used alongside the rent history?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1569.141685},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1552.529406},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1570.190091},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1589.024268},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1580.068374},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1588.203592},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1581.721738},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1625.12618},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1653.91351},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1689.865777},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1711.792553},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1735.323505},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1775.828415},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1803.595422},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1819.461955},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1844.795932},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1884.922173},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1896.470641},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1902.962214},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1871.549847},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1885.242763},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1904.371825},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1915.043299},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1936.221622},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1953.736372},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1966.666011},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1945.784124},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1934.564203},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1957.246408},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1964.579017},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1972.627633},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1963.668678},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1971.529572},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1954.804278},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1960.085922},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1946.370287},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1946.574702},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1964.798035},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1986.053464},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1985.797767},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1961.445338},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1958.559266},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1972.201646},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1986.952354},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2001.735458},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2027.863515},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2035.797427},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2050.452504},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2044.071704},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2052.042469},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2094.495241},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2109.592091},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2100.563098},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2093.665021},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2095.144557},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2113.888847},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2098.865146},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2099.777891},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2102.08753},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2130.16345},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2146.266247},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2143.63107},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2119.756154},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2125.754872},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2154.094189},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2174.081542},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2178.707999},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2173.80704},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2190.008866},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2192.749572},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2198.828339},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2184.788889}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":72,"firstPeriod":"2020-07-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":72,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2130.16345,"endRent":2184.788889,"change":0.025643778180495902,"cagr":0.025643778180495902},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1946.370287,"endRent":2184.788889,"change":0.12249395893084758,"cagr":0.03926907435100979},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1735.323505,"endRent":2184.788889,"change":0.2590095637527827,"cagr":0.04714254658670458}},"maxDrawdown":-0.016507089194362723,"annualizedVolatility":0.03131252204785195,"consecutiveReturnCount":71}}