Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI for 98502 is $2,011, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The five-digit 98502 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey reports $1,689 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities. ZORI therefore sits above that ACS measure, a source-universe difference rather than a contradiction: asking listings are not the same population as occupied homes, and neither statistic is a quoted rent for every available unit.
The rent history gives the current index a positive but uneven backdrop. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 4.5% over one year, 3.0% over three years, and 5.8% over five years. The latest rise confirms that the longer observed path remains positive, yet it does not match the stronger five-year compound pace. The series contains 64 observations with 100% stated coverage, so missing observations do not explain this comparison. Same-month framing avoids comparing different seasonal positions, but it does not show why rents moved. These are backward-looking Zillow ZIP measurements through the supplied endpoint, not forecasts, valuations, or investment recommendations.
Variation limits the confidence appropriate for a single current reading. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.8%, placing this history in the supplied high-variability category and making point-in-time rent interpretation less settled than the growth figures alone suggest. The maximum drawdown was a 3.0% peak-to-trough decline, an observed pullback rather than a forward scenario. Transparent national discovery ranks were 710 for momentum, 2,477 for stability, and 1,513 for the balanced measure; lower ranks place higher among history-eligible ZIPs. The rank spread fits a stronger backward-looking growth signal than stability signal, without predicting the next move. Together, the movements show that a single reading should be anchored to its range of prior changes, not just its latest level.
Bedroom figures should be read as a translation exercise, not as a separate rent survey. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,578 for a studio, $1,726 for one bedroom, $2,011 for two bedrooms, $2,681 for three bedrooms, and $3,374 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom modelled estimate aligns with the all-type index by construction. It preserves the ZIP index as the anchor while using the local administrative ladder only to express relative bedroom spacing. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; the ladder and every modelled bedroom figure are not measured bedroom rents. They cannot identify a building’s condition, utility package, or lease terms.
The income and burden evidence form a second tension. Applying the 30% required-income screen mechanically to the current index produces $80,440 in required annual gross income. Against the ZCTA ACS median household income of $92,207, the indexed asking rent represents 26.2% under the same annual arithmetic. This screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Yet ACS reports 3,691 of 6,307 occupied renter homes spending at least that share of income on gross rent, or 58.5%. That burden statistic and the median gross-rent estimate come from the survey universe, with sampling uncertainty, and cannot establish affordability for a particular household or unit. It also does not identify how income is distributed among renters.
ACS composition provides broader housing context, while still remaining a ZCTA estimate. The area has 15,663 housing units and a 5.6% vacancy rate. Renter-occupied homes account for 42.6% of occupied units; the stock includes 10,162 single-family units and 1,627 units in large multifamily structures. Of vacant inventory, 193 units are classified for rent. That aggregate classification does not prove that any particular listing is vacant, rentable, or available on given terms. For wider asking-rent context, the Olympia city scope is about $2,013, the Thurston County scope is $2,084, and the Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA metro scope is $2,084; all are context rather than ZIP rental comparables. The mix describes aggregate units, not the bedroom availability or condition of a current rental.
Rental evidence should not be substituted for the resale record. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation reports a $639,855 median sold price, up 7.5% year over year, alongside 119 homes sold and a 16-day median marketing time. Inventory was 106 homes, equal to 2.7 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 100.11%, and 29.3% of sold homes closed above list. Those signals describe ZIP resale pricing and liquidity only; they are not rental transactions, rental comparables, or evidence of a property’s operating results. Their rolling window and sold-home population differ from a current asking-rent index, so direct comparison is descriptive rather than like-for-like.
Resale therefore challenges a rent-only momentum reading: the reported annual sale-price increase exceeds the asking-rent increase, even though each comes from a different source and observation window. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 3.77% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a measure of cash flow, transaction economics, or a specific home’s rent-to-price outcome. Current asking rent, ACS occupied-home rent, HUD standards, history, and resale observations answer different questions. Before attaching them to a property, verify its advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease terms, condition, actual sale or list price, marketing history, and whether its occupancy status differs from aggregate vacancy data. Does the individual property evidence align with the aggregate signals?
","findings":[{"body":"Current ZIP ZORI is $2,011, while the matched ACS ZCTA median gross rent is $1,689. The gap is decision-relevant because Zillow observes a blended asking-rent index and ACS surveys occupied renter homes with selected utilities. The figures are complementary, not interchangeable, and neither creates a unit-specific advertised rent.","title":"Current rent exceeds the occupied-home survey benchmark"},{"body":"The same-month history is positive across one-, three-, and five-year annualized changes, but the recent rate remains below the five-year pace. Complete reported coverage supports use of the historical comparison, while 3.8% annualized variability and a 3.0% maximum drawdown caution against treating the current index as a stable, self-explanatory point.","title":"History has positive momentum but limited stability"},{"body":"The mathematical required-income result lies below the ACS median household income, yet 58.5% of surveyed renter homes report burden at or above the stated threshold. This is not a contradiction: the screen uses a current asking-rent index and a median income, whereas the burden measure describes occupied renter homes in the ACS survey. Neither outcome decides an individual applicant’s position.","title":"Income arithmetic and renter burden describe different screens"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale measures show quick marketing time and a sale-to-list average slightly above list, while annual sale-price growth is faster than the asking-rent change. That is a resale-versus-rental tension, not proof about transaction economics. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure remains a cross-source screen because it does not add property expenses, financing, or unit-specific rent.","title":"Resale appreciation outpaced asking-rent growth"}],"risks":["ZORI is an aggregate asking-rent index across rental types. A specific property may differ by bedroom count, utilities, condition, lease terms, and advertised availability, none of which this ZIP index resolves.","ACS values are matched ZCTA five-year survey estimates for occupied homes, not real-time listing records. Their sampling uncertainty and different geography meaning limit direct comparison with a USPS-addressed rental.","The history has complete reported coverage but high variability and an observed drawdown. Past same-month changes describe recorded movement only and do not determine future rent levels or an individual lease outcome.","Redfin observations concern sold and listed homes in the ZIP resale market. Its price, liquidity, and sale-to-list signals cannot be used as rental transactions or as a property-level financial result."],"qa":[{"a":"The Zillow figure is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS measures median gross rent in occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Because the ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and because the observed populations differ, the two figures answer related but nonidentical questions.","q":"Why do current Zillow rent and ACS rent differ?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates obtained by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve the index as the anchor and express relative bedroom spacing. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so the output is not a measurement of advertised rents for those bedroom types.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"No. The required-income figure divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the stated threshold. It is only arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden share instead summarizes surveyed occupied renter homes; it does not show the income, lease, utilities, or rent of any particular renter household or rental unit.","q":"Does the required-income result determine applicant qualification?"},{"a":"The Redfin record is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation with sold-home price, sales, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list information. It should be read only as for-sale market evidence. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price is a cross-source screen, not a unit-level cash-flow calculation, because no property expenses, financing, or actual unit rent enter it.","q":"What can the Redfin resale screen say about this ZIP?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1532.536369},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1542.213778},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1508.312996},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1516.398104},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1537.638974},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1613.117498},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1649.259056},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1686.279368},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1726.367212},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1760.148707},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1792.46528},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1750.087062},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1746.095617},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1739.029521},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1781.22343},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1801.9708},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1801.046788},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1778.444731},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1778.505153},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1788.628625},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1784.747468},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1764.97295},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1756.053413},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1771.17661},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1796.791989},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1819.150446},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1834.27814},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1839.497626},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1843.755926},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1845.424373},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1843.969678},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1837.187843},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1848.970792},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1873.64377},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1875.241657},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1876.942621},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1884.711857},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1895.894165},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1896.132377},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1891.777895},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1896.787992},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1897.782445},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1900.765557},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1901.896009},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1926.025983},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1922.591967},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1932.562914},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1919.187198},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1924.8526},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1919.386282},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1911.62635},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1924.097053},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1929.36477},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1941.523625},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1950.708162},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1961.702541},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1948.903991},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1954.569296},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1959.620564},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1979.8893},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1979.996689},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1988.503355},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2004.709857},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2010.898962}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1924.097053,"endRent":2010.898962,"change":0.04511306166425477,"cagr":0.04511306166425477},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1839.497626,"endRent":2010.898962,"change":0.09317834042151674,"cagr":0.030141791024965947},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1516.398104,"endRent":2010.898962,"change":0.3261022660840782,"cagr":0.05807244275668899}},"maxDrawdown":-0.029811321645237143,"annualizedVolatility":0.037813635587727185,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}