The sharpest current tension comes from the direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation. Its median sold price was $335,924, down 4.0% from a year earlier, even as 218 homes sold with a 12-day median marketing time. Inventory stood at 147 homes and 2.0 months of supply. Sellers averaged 100.8% of list price, and 37.8% of sales closed above list. Those are for-sale, not rental, signals. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 5.8%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a property-performance measure. The price decline challenges a simple reading of the positive ZORI history, while turnover and sale-to-list signals describe resale liquidity alone and cannot establish rental demand.
In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level Zillow Observed Rent Index, or ZORI, was $1,627, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a measure of every listing, executed lease, or bedroom category. For wider context only, the City of Spokane context rent reading was $1,498, Spokane County’s context reading was $1,546, and the Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA metro context reading was $1,547. Each named comparator has its own city, county, or metro scope and is not a substitute for ZIP evidence. The ZIP level sits above all three, but that difference describes index readings rather than a verified advantage for any property.
Backward-looking, exact same-month ZORI change measured 3.08% over one year, 3.57% annualized over three years, and 5.04% annualized over five years. The positive current pace therefore confirms rather than breaks the longer upward path, but it has slowed relative to both longer windows. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.90%, which supports more confidence in one current snapshot than a highly erratic series would, although it does not turn the snapshot into a forecast. A separate peak-to-trough calculation shows a maximum drawdown of 1.99%, a limited historical retreat that still matters when momentum is decelerating. Coverage was 100%. National transparent discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 841 for momentum, 1,439 for stability, and 845 for balanced history; lower ranks are higher. These are descriptive discovery tools, not investment recommendations.
Different rent universes explain why the current index should not be benchmarked as though each source observed the same homes. The five-digit label 99205 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,316 for occupied renter homes, includes selected utilities, and is 23.6% below ZORI. It is not an asking-rent series. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR is $1,331, an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Neither difference verifies an asking amount, utility bill, or availability for an individual unit.
The bedroom ladder resolves a different question but remains modelled. Scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,211 for a studio, $1,270 for one bedroom, $1,627 for two bedrooms, $2,238 for three bedrooms, and $2,691 for four bedrooms. They retain HUD’s local bedroom relationships while anchoring the ladder to the ZIP asking-rent index. They are not measured bedroom rents, and they should not be read as counts of available units, transaction rents, or a promise that a unit of a stated size can be leased at that amount. Actual advertisements can differ by included utilities, lease terms, concessions, and unit characteristics.
Affordability screens pull in the opposite direction from the source gaps. At the 30% screen, the $1,627 monthly ZORI corresponds arithmetically to $65,080 of annual income. Against the matched ZCTA’s $77,374 median household income, this remains a broad arithmetic comparison, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS survey records 2,126 of 4,864 renter households as paying 30% or more of income toward rent, or 43.7%. That burden measure concerns occupied renter households and cannot prove what any particular future tenant or one listed unit will experience.
Supply-side ACS evidence is area-wide and does not identify an available apartment. The matched ZCTA had 18,620 housing units, with a 5.1% vacancy rate; 235 units were classified as vacant for rent. Its recorded stock included 16,405 single-family units but 394 units in large multifamily structures. These stock and vacancy figures are survey-era area totals, not a unit-level vacancy check, and they do not tell whether a given advertised rental is habitable, competitively priced, or still available. They also do not convert a general vacancy figure into evidence about concessions or turnover at a particular building.
Finally, the series cannot resolve a property-level decision without records for the unit itself. Necessary checks are the exact bedroom count, current asking amount, availability date, lease length, selected utilities, concessions, and whether the address falls within the Zillow ZIP geography rather than merely using a similar delivery label. For a resale comparison, verify property type, condition, sale date, list history, and whether the closing belongs in the direct ZIP observation; Redfin’s rolling window is not a rental comp set. Treat the observed rent history, ACS household measures, HUD standard, and resale snapshot as separate screens with stated limits. The unresolved decision question is whether the specific unit’s documented terms align with the relevant screen, rather than whether an area-wide average can stand in for it.
","findings":[{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale data put the median sold price at $335,924, 4.0% below the prior year. Yet 218 homes sold in 12 days at the median, with 2.0 months of supply and sales averaging 100.8% of list. This is a for-sale liquidity picture, not rental proof. It complicates, rather than resolves, the positive ZORI history.","title":"Resale weakness coexists with quick ZIP sales"},{"body":"The Zillow asking index, ACS gross-rent survey, and HUD standard answer different questions. June ZORI is $1,627 for a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS reports $1,316 median gross rent in occupied renter homes with selected utilities, while the HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,331. Their differences cannot be converted into a unit-specific rent conclusion.","title":"Asking index exceeds ACS and HUD reference points"},{"body":"Historical same-month ZORI changes remained positive across all reported windows, but the one-year rate is below the three-year and five-year annualized rates. Full coverage, moderate monthly-return variability, and a limited historical drawdown support a steadier reading of the current index than a volatile series would. The record remains backward-looking and makes no forecast.","title":"Positive rent history has moderated"},{"body":"An arithmetic 30% screen translates current ZORI into $65,080 annual income, compared with a $77,374 area median household income. At the same time, ACS identifies 43.7% of renter households as burdened at 30% or more. Housing and vacancy totals are area aggregates, so they cannot confirm a particular unit’s terms, availability, or tenant outcome.","title":"Area affordability signals are mixed"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards differ in timing, population, utility treatment, and purpose. Treating them as interchangeable rents could distort the lease-level price screen relevant to a specific unit.","The 43.7% burden rate summarizes occupied renter households in a five-year survey. It does not identify income, payment burden, utility costs, or qualification for any prospective applicant.","The 5.1% ZCTA vacancy rate and vacant-for-rent count are area-level survey classifications. They cannot prove a given advertisement remains available, includes concessions, or reflects current turnover at a particular building.","Redfin’s price and liquidity signals concern closed for-sale transactions in a rolling ZIP window. The screening ratio is annualized ZORI divided by median price only, not a property-level operating result or performance measure."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It provides a current market index, but it is not a count of open listings, executed leases, measured bedroom rents, or a price guarantee for a specified unit.","q":"What does the $1,627 ZORI represent?"},{"a":"ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent measures occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI measures a typical observed asking-rent index. The 99205 ZCTA is a statistical area matched to the Zillow label, not the same as a USPS delivery ZIP. The sources therefore have different populations, definitions, and timing.","q":"Why is ACS gross rent below ZORI?"},{"a":"No. Redfin supplies a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, while annualized ZORI divided by median sale price is merely a cross-source screening ratio. It does not measure rental transactions, property-level operating results, or future performance, and it cannot substitute for documentation about a particular home.","q":"Does the Redfin screening ratio describe rental returns?"},{"a":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder; they are not measured bedroom rents. The 30% required-income calculation is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification standard. Unit-level rent, utilities, availability, and lease terms still require direct verification.","q":"How should the bedroom and income screens be read?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1148.692021},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1162.082735},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1181.419869},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1195.26407},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1209.085838},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1240.250837},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1245.602986},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1271.883334},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1296.100888},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1333.693433},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1345.001818},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1350.566304},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1360.729754},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1373.290611},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1371.279692},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1371.326607},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1380.492153},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1403.68613},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1418.901835},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1440.059667},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1438.752411},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1446.549205},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1446.899607},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1449.606397},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1435.24263},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1447.123586},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1468.655148},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1489.808868},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1493.351613},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1477.546252},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1472.141305},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1463.909897},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1479.193803},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1477.199381},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1485.348922},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1480.710908},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1499.509349},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1495.561445},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1501.044416},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1498.879977},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1520.014476},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1523.574509},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1544.075163},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1530.814621},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1522.494476},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1516.831182},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1513.292979},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1532.028995},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1532.831298},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1543.233805},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1548.854389},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1563.648865},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1559.426872},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1557.324921},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1550.659151},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1577.902043},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1589.088573},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1604.003858},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1614.309046},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1612.341533},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1615.967309},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1617.51824},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1616.428789},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1611.932772},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1613.895083},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1626.355689},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1631.522503},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1626.559829}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":68,"firstPeriod":"2020-11-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":68,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1577.902043,"endRent":1626.559829,"change":0.030837013118690804,"cagr":0.030837013118690804},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1463.909897,"endRent":1626.559829,"change":0.11110651846354713,"cagr":0.03574274160694024},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1271.883334,"endRent":1626.559829,"change":0.27885929905580475,"cagr":0.05042379980346823}},"maxDrawdown":-0.019935677185683676,"annualizedVolatility":0.029002890189885618,"consecutiveReturnCount":67}}