ZIP 99206 enters June 2026 with a Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) of $1,530, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quoted rent for every available home. The exact same-month 1-year change is −0.42%, while the 3-year and 5-year annualized changes are 1.31% and 2.61%. Thus, the latest year’s modest decline breaks from—not confirms—the longer upward historical path. This is a backward-looking reading through the stated endpoint, not a forecast, causal explanation, or investment conclusion. The central decision tension is a current asking-rent benchmark that eased recently despite positive longer-period measurements.
That reversal should be read with the series’ high-variability classification in view. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.65%, and the maximum drawdown was −2.39%; these are historical dispersion and decline measures, not projected downside. The history has 100% coverage, with 63 observations and 62 consecutive monthly returns, supporting complete measurement over its available window rather than guaranteeing stability ahead. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,304 for momentum, 2,368 for stability, and 2,668 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher. Recent softness therefore merits attention, but variability means a single current ZORI snapshot deserves less certainty than a stable, listing-specific rent.
Different rent universes explain why nearby-looking figures should not be substituted. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 5-year survey reports $1,246 median gross rent for occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and is not a current asking-rent series. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, even though this five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match. The ZORI is 22.8% above that ACS median. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,331, below the current ZORI; HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. These gaps describe different definitions, populations, and timing, not a price error or a specific unit.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled, not measured. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces monthly modelled estimates of $1,139 for a studio, $1,194 for one bedroom, $1,530 for two bedrooms, $2,104 for three bedrooms, and $2,531 for four bedrooms. This preserves HUD’s local bedroom pattern while anchoring the level to the ZIP asking-rent index; it does not observe transactions, listings, utilities, condition, lease terms, or a distribution of rents within each bedroom count. The HUD ladder itself remains an administrative standard. Consequently, these estimates are comparability tools, not measured bedroom rents or representations of any available property.
The income and burden evidence points to another distinction between a benchmark and household experience. Applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to the $1,530 monthly ZORI yields $61,200 in annual income; this is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA’s median household income is $81,764, and the annualized ZORI equals 22.5% of that figure, but a ZIP-wide median cannot identify any renter’s income or affordability. In the ACS occupied-renter sample, 3,518 of 6,358 renter households, or 55.3%, paid at least 30% of income toward gross rent. That burden measure includes its own survey definitions and selected-utility gross-rent concept, so it cannot prove burden for a particular listing or household.
Stock figures add scale but not an inventory count. The ACS ZCTA had 17,190 housing units, a 3.8% vacancy rate, a 38.5% renter share, and 12,322 single-family units. Those ACS counts and vacancy classifications do not tell whether a vacancy is currently marketed, at the modelled rent, or suitable for a given search. For wider context only, Spokane Valley city’s context rent is $1,548.77, Spokane County’s context rent is $1,546, and the Spokane–Spokane Valley, WA metro context rent is $1,547, each above the ZIP index. City, county, and metro figures are contextual scopes, not replacements for ZIP evidence.
Several limits keep the report at ZIP scale. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index and its history is backward-looking; ACS describes a multi-year survey of occupied renter homes; HUD is a standard; and the bedroom ladder is a model built from the ZORI and local HUD ladder. None establishes an asking price, availability, vacancy, utilities, condition, or burden for a particular unit. They also cannot compare utility treatment across individual leases. A property-level comparison needs the current listing’s address or ZIP assignment, bedroom count, advertised rent, lease term, included utilities, recurring fees, deposits, availability date, and unit condition. The useful closing question is not whether one benchmark “wins,” but which definition matches the unit and decision being evaluated.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI is $1,530. Its exact same-month 1-year change is −0.42%, in contrast to annualized gains of 1.31% over 3 years and 2.61% over 5 years. The direction shift is real in the supplied history but is not predictive. High variability, 3.65% annualized, means the current index should be treated as a broad benchmark rather than a precise quote for a particular property.","title":"Recent decline against longer gains"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR answer different questions. ZORI reflects typical observed asking rent across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, while HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The matched ZCTA is statistical geography, not a USPS delivery ZIP. Comparisons identify definitional gaps; they do not establish a listing price, renter payment, or error.","title":"Rent measures are not interchangeable"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates generated by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP ZORI. They retain the ladder’s bedroom pattern but are not observations of rents by bedroom count. A unit’s advertised rent can diverge because the model does not observe unit condition, included utilities, fees, lease length, availability, or the distribution of properties within each bedroom category.","title":"Bedroom results are modelled estimates"},{"body":"ACS stock data shows 17,190 housing units and a 3.8% vacancy rate, but neither figure measures live rental inventory. The renter share is 38.5%, and 55.3% of surveyed renter households met the ACS burden threshold. Those area-level statistics should not be assigned to any particular unit or household. The ZIP’s asking-rent index sits below each supplied city, county, and metro context rent, which remain comparison scopes only.","title":"Area statistics provide scale, not unit proof"}],"risks":["The current Zillow index is a blended ZIP asking-rent benchmark, so rental-type mix and index construction can differ from an individual property’s advertised rent, availability date, included utilities, or lease terms.","ACS represents occupied renter homes in a five-year matched-ZCTA survey, not current listings, and the ZCTA is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP; sampling uncertainty also applies to its medians and shares.","Bedroom results are modelled by applying a HUD administrative ladder to ZORI. They cannot establish observed bedroom rents or account for condition, floor plan, fees, utilities, timing, or listing-specific concessions.","Area-level vacancy and rent-burden statistics describe classifications and surveyed households, respectively. They do not demonstrate that a particular vacant unit is rentable, affordable, currently marketed, or occupied by a burdened renter."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a matched-ZCTA, five-year survey result for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The measures also differ in timing and target population. Their difference is therefore a definitional comparison, not evidence that an ACS household or a listing is incorrectly priced.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates that scale the ZIP ZORI according to the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD is administrative and bedroom-specific, while ZORI is an asking-rent index. The output does not measure observed rents, listing availability, unit quality, utilities, fees, or lease terms for studio or other bedroom categories.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply annualizes the ZORI and divides by 30% to produce a benchmark income amount. It does not observe a household’s income, debts, household size, benefits, credit, eligibility standards, or the actual rent and utility obligations of a property. It is neither financial advice nor an applicant qualification rule.","q":"Does the income screen determine whether a household qualifies?"},{"a":"The exact same-month 1-year ZORI change is negative, whereas the annualized 3-year and 5-year readings remain positive. That says recent direction differs from the longer historical path through the endpoint. Complete coverage improves documentation of that record, but annualized variability and drawdown mean it should not be read as a forecast or a guarantee about the next listing.","q":"What does the recent history say?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1240.837885},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1289.98884},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1344.943179},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1378.689058},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1419.235488},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1428.225358},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1449.711203},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1430.35884},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1444.080116},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1475.240411},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1493.800045},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1481.004923},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1481.539515},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1478.776488},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1484.792705},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1479.36302},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1468.067029},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1466.428086},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1469.442891},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1470.292297},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1467.76513},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1465.989522},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1471.476448},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1487.797988},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1486.788547},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1483.787536},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1471.055447},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1467.043481},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1458.069771},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1465.612667},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1461.414449},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1476.603834},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1469.336383},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1474.683798},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1476.760652},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1487.133844},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1494.758664},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1492.158618},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1492.040951},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1493.38739},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1501.499663},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1498.871244},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1506.98436},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1511.469775},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1502.942788},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1500.994371},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1499.869423},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1522.18185},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1528.088133},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1537.288423},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1536.280589},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1544.445655},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1549.943615},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1553.820596},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1553.199983},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1546.768131},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1560.552694},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1561.870919},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1562.587935},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1538.915829},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1532.014783},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1527.345198},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1529.838516}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":63,"firstPeriod":"2021-04-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":63,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1536.280589,"endRent":1529.838516,"change":-0.004193291932558463,"cagr":-0.004193291932558463},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1471.055447,"endRent":1529.838516,"change":0.03995979153598839,"cagr":0.013146346734139946},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1344.943179,"endRent":1529.838516,"change":0.13747445980392592,"cagr":0.02609679431287426}},"maxDrawdown":-0.023919047344787003,"annualizedVolatility":0.03654305038163415,"consecutiveReturnCount":62}}