The decision question for a prospective 99301 lease is whether the current marketwide asking-rent signal fits the unit type and contract actually under review, not whether it predicts a particular home’s price. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA label; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is $1,665 per month, following a 2.6% year-over-year increase. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a current market reference rather than the rent, condition, availability, or utility package of one property. The useful starting distinction is between this broad index and the terms attached to an actual listing.
ZORI cannot be merged with either the ACS survey measure or the HUD standard. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched ZCTA, median gross rent is $1,228, with a $77 margin of error; it covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ZORI reading is 35.6% above that median, but the comparison spans different populations, periods, and rent concepts rather than documenting a change for a particular unit. HUD’s FY 2026 local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $1,538, which is 8.3% below ZORI. That FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; it neither prices an available listing nor measures a household’s monthly obligation.
Bedroom detail is best read as a scaling model, not as an observation. The local HUD ladder scales the ZIP ZORI into modelled monthly estimates of $1,215 for a studio, $1,373 for a one-bedroom, $1,665 for a two-bedroom, $2,242 for a three-bedroom, and $2,582 for a four-bedroom. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. Their pattern preserves the local HUD ladder’s relative bedroom steps while holding the ZIP-wide index as the anchor. In particular, the two-bedroom figure equals the ZIP ZORI by construction, not because a sample measured that bedroom segment. A listing can depart from the modeled ladder because its advertised rent and included charges are property-specific facts outside the index.
Housing composition clarifies what the ACS ZCTA describes without proving current supply. The survey estimates 28,270 housing units, of which 27,093 are occupied and 1,177 are vacant, an overall vacancy rate of 4.2%. Much of the stock is single-family: 21,925 units are in that category, compared with 1,630 in large multifamily structures. Of the vacant-unit categories, 362 are for rent, 119 are for sale, and 92 are seasonal. These counts do not identify advertised units, lease-ready condition, rent levels, or who can obtain them. Overall vacancy also differs from apartment vacancy and does not establish availability or negotiating conditions for any particular unit.
The matched ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $87,951, and it is a household-wide statistic rather than a renter-income measure. Applying the stated 30% screen to the ZIP ZORI produces a required annual income of $66,600; the index’s annualized amount is 22.7% of the reported median household income. This is only an arithmetic screen, not advice or a rule for applicant qualification, and it cannot describe a household’s budget. Renters occupy 7,748 units, or 28.6% of occupied units. Within the ACS renter-household universe, 3,603 households, or 46.5%, report gross-rent burdens at or above 30%; its margin of error is 574 households. This observed burden measure concerns surveyed occupied renters, not a specific present or future lease.
For wider—not substitutive—comparison, Pasco city context has a $1,665 rent reference, a 29.1% renter share, and a 3.6% overall vacancy rate; Franklin County context has $1,677, 29.0%, and 4.2%, respectively; and Kennewick-Richland, WA metro context has a $1,704 rent reference and a 6.7% apartment vacancy rate. The city and county vacancy figures describe all housing, while the metro figure is apartment-specific, so they are not interchangeable measures. The ZIP’s rent reference is therefore close to the city context and below the county and metro context values, but wider geographies are benchmarks only. They do not reveal the rent, occupancy, or vacancy status of a property in the ZIP.
Important limits remain even after keeping sources separate. ZORI is ZIP-level and blended, ACS is a multiyear ZCTA survey with sampling uncertainty, and HUD provides an administrative standard; none is a property file. The label match also does not make the ZCTA boundary the same as the delivery ZIP. Concrete property-level checks are the live advertised rent; exact bedroom count; whether utilities, parking, or other recurring charges are included; lease length; concessions; deposits and move-in charges; occupancy date; and the current availability of the named unit. Those checks establish a lease’s actual terms, whereas the reported indices, survey estimates, and vacancy categories only frame the surrounding evidence.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI is $1,665, a typical ZIP-level observed asking-rent index across rental types. It exceeds the matched ZCTA’s ACS median gross rent by 35.6% and the local two-bedroom HUD standard by 8.3%. Those differences do not create a single rent benchmark: ACS describes occupied renter homes with selected utilities, and HUD is an administrative standard.","title":"Current asking signal differs from survey and standard"},{"body":"The displayed studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The two-bedroom amount equals ZIP ZORI as the calibration anchor. They help translate one broad index across bedroom sizes, but they are modelled estimates rather than measured rents, and no result identifies the terms of a specific listing.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled ladder outputs"},{"body":"Using $1,665 in the stated 30% calculation yields $66,600 annual income. That is a mechanical ratio, not proof of affordability or a qualification threshold. Separately, ACS estimates 46.5% of renter households bear gross rent at or above 30% of income. The screen uses the current asking index; the burden figure reflects surveyed occupied renter households.","title":"Income screen and burden answer different questions"},{"body":"ACS estimates a 4.2% overall housing vacancy rate, with 362 units categorized for rent. The same inventory includes for-sale, seasonal, and other vacancy statuses, while the stock is predominantly single-family. These figures describe the matched ZCTA’s survey-period composition. They cannot establish that a certain unit is available, rentable on stated terms, or representative of market inventory.","title":"Vacancy categories do not equal available rentals"}],"risks":["ZORI reflects blended observed asking rents at ZIP scale, so using it as a quote for a particular bedroom count, condition, utility package, or lease term can misstate actual obligation.","The ACS gross-rent and burden estimates cover occupied renter households in a five-year ZCTA survey; their multiyear scope and sampling uncertainty prevent direct treatment as current listing evidence.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Treating it as measured market asking rent may obscure the difference between program benchmarks and property-level advertised prices.","Overall and apartment vacancy measures use different housing universes, and category counts do not identify lease-ready homes; no vacancy statistic establishes availability, concessions, or eligibility for a particular unit."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. At $1,665 in June 2026, it is useful as a current broad market reference. It does not state the asking rent of one advertised home, the included utilities, unit condition, bedroom count, concession, or contract terms.","q":"How should Zillow ZORI be used for this ZIP?"},{"a":"The report does not identify a cause for the difference. ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a current observed asking-rent index. The 35.6% arithmetic gap therefore compares distinct populations and concepts and cannot prove change or pricing for a particular unit.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent lower than ZORI?"},{"a":"The bedroom series is not a set of observed rents. It is a group of modelled monthly estimates generated by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. The two-bedroom estimate serves as the ZORI anchor, while the other bedroom amounts preserve relative HUD steps. Individual listings may differ.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts actual measured rents?"},{"a":"No. The 4.2% overall vacancy estimate classifies ZCTA housing units, and the 46.5% burden estimate summarizes surveyed occupied renter households. Neither measure names a lease-ready property or describes an applicant. Listing availability, all monthly charges, terms, and property-specific eligibility remain unmeasured by these statistics.","q":"Do vacancy and burden figures prove a unit is available or affordable?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1092.832245},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1090.79864},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1089.763445},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1095.312417},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1102.651967},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1111.201895},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1117.763446},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1126.1414},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1139.667811},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1155.06145},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1165.085577},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1168.094469},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1154.24827},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1162.744066},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1149.070962},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1148.098062},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1150.560655},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1174.689269},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1185.215895},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1202.723972},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1201.831673},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1216.69617},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1219.135188},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1221.144551},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1230.642818},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1241.392851},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1273.313041},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1292.568304},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1301.730112},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1300.200209},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1298.90576},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1309.848728},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1333.0141},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1360.975811},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1385.30076},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1387.421002},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1389.937463},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1402.781026},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1422.439942},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1436.181398},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1447.133114},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1456.530172},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1479.056136},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1481.267859},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1483.416496},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1465.478413},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1475.762922},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1505.954407},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1532.329857},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1537.26518},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1528.71829},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1531.217676},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1539.668151},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1540.419208},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1536.86069},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1548.345271},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1556.476448},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1578.767256},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1573.186357},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1575.403061},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1571.653205},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1573.277766},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1579.21614},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1584.412793},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1583.081212},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1583.262004},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1587.020563},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1595.06709},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1607.382899},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1609.303264},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1617.624302},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1614.895578},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1617.322366},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1610.812768},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1612.612608},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1622.490778},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1627.814746},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1636.302133},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1641.031421},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1638.721663},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1634.150746},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1634.703605},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1638.076837},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1642.617738},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1647.034352},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1659.663253},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1666.463659},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1665.064214}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":88,"firstPeriod":"2019-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":88,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1622.490778,"endRent":1665.064214,"change":0.02623955499610231,"cagr":0.02623955499610231},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1531.217676,"endRent":1665.064214,"change":0.08741182922446877,"cagr":0.028327265516458366},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1292.568304,"endRent":1665.064214,"change":0.28818276670352283,"cagr":0.05195096650800157}},"maxDrawdown":-0.017118826884882643,"annualizedVolatility":0.024825125270935663,"consecutiveReturnCount":87}}