The distinctive decision question is whether a typical current asking-rent signal for the supplied five-digit market label can be read alongside bedroom needs, household-resource indicators, and vacancy composition without treating any of them as a quote for a specific home. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is $1,794 per month, up 1.39% year over year. The label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it describes a cross-type market signal rather than the rent, utility package, availability, or terms of any one property.
The housing base explains why the total vacancy rate needs composition. The matched ACS ZCTA records 8,813 housing units, including 7,590 occupied units and 1,223 vacant units, producing a 13.9% vacancy rate. Only 367 vacant units were classified as for rent—about 30% of vacancies—while 97 were seasonal. The structure counts include 4,051 single-family units and 1,228 large-multifamily units, showing that the stock is not restricted to one structure type. These are survey-era area counts, not an active listing tally. In particular, a vacancy category cannot demonstrate that a named apartment is available, nor can it identify the condition, lease terms, or asking rent of a vacant unit.
For a bedroom-sensitive comparison, the series produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder: $1,237 for a studio, $1,367 for one bedroom, $1,794 for two bedrooms, $2,495 for three bedrooms, and $3,010 for four bedrooms. The local HUD ladder itself ranges from $1,156 for a studio to $2,812 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents, and they should not be read as observed listing averages or promises about a unit. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its role here is only to provide the local relative bedroom scaling.
Household measures reveal a separate affordability screen, with no claim of applicant qualification. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $75,668, with a $5,377 margin of error, and represents all households rather than renter income alone. Annualizing the current ZORI yields $71,760 as the income associated with a 30% rent-to-income screen; the same arithmetic puts the index at 28.5% of the area median household income. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Among 4,141 renter-occupied households, renters account for 54.6% of occupied units. The ACS observed 1,676 renter households paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent, a 40.5% burden share. This is a survey measure for occupied renter homes, not proof about the expenses or burden of a particular unit.
Rent figures diverge because their evidence universes differ. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,335, with a $64 margin of error; gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The June ZORI is $459, or 34.4%, above that survey median, but the difference is not a same-universe rent change: it compares a current asking-rent index with a retrospective survey measure. The current ZORI is also $118, or 7.0%, above the local two-bedroom HUD standard of $1,676. That HUD FMR/SAFMR figure is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and it does not convert the ZORI or ACS median into a measured two-bedroom rent.
Wider geographies supply context, not substitutes for the ZIP result: in the City of Fairbanks context, the asking-rent value is $1,720 and the ACS burden share is 50.1%; in the Fairbanks North Star Borough county context, asking rent is $1,744 and the burden share is 45.9%; and in the Fairbanks, AK metro context, median household income is $88,267 and the rent-to-income measure is 23.7%. The city, county, and metro each span a broader evidence universe than the ZIP/ZCTA match. Their different levels should not be blended with ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD standards, or the modelled bedroom ladder to create a single local rent or affordability measure.
Several limits govern a property-level read. ZORI is an index, ACS is a five-year sampled survey with reported margins, and HUD is a program standard; their dates, populations, and inclusions differ. The ZCTA match remains statistical rather than a delivery-address guarantee, and the modelled bedroom estimates inherit the index and HUD-scaling assumptions. Concrete listing checks include confirming the property’s applicable ZIP or service location, bedroom count, advertised base rent, included and tenant-paid utilities, lease length, deposits, recurring fees, concessions, and stated availability date. Direct confirmation with the property and review of the proposed lease are necessary because area vacancy and burden statistics cannot establish the price, vacancy, or total monthly cost of a particular unit.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,794, a 1.39% annual increase. It is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, not a listing quote. The supplied five-digit label links Zillow’s ZIP market identifier to a Census ZCTA, but the ZCTA is statistical and not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Current asking-rent signal"},{"body":"ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,335 and includes selected utilities in occupied renter homes; its reported margin is $64. The ZORI sits $459 higher, or 34.4%, but that cross-source gap does not measure a rent increase. HUD’s two-bedroom $1,676 FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not asking rent.","title":"Separate rent benchmarks"},{"body":"The local HUD ladder scales ZORI into modelled, rather than measured, monthly bedroom estimates: $1,237 studio, $1,367 one-bedroom, $1,794 two-bedroom, $2,495 three-bedroom, and $3,010 four-bedroom. HUD’s bedroom standards determine the relative scaling. The figures should not be treated as observed availability, listing averages, or property-specific rent quotes.","title":"Modelled bedroom translation"},{"body":"ACS reports 4,141 renter-occupied households, 54.6% of occupied units, with 1,676 households or 40.5% at or above the 30% gross-rent burden threshold. The $71,760 screen based on ZORI is arithmetic rather than qualification advice. Of 1,223 vacancies, 367 are for rent; that cannot establish vacancy at a particular property.","title":"Household and vacancy evidence"}],"risks":["Cross-source comparison risk: current Zillow asking-rent index, ACS five-year gross-rent survey, and HUD administrative standard use different timing, populations, utility treatment, and purposes, so apparent gaps are not measured market movements.","Geography risk: the matching ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, while city, county, and metro figures cover wider areas and cannot validate a property’s location or price.","Bedroom risk: estimates are scaled from the ZIP index using HUD ratios, so they do not observe actual studio through four-bedroom listings, concessions, unit condition, or utility obligations.","Vacancy and burden risk: survey counts describe area categories and occupied renter households; neither statistic can prove a given unit is vacant, affordable, available now, or subject to the same costs."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Thus $1,794 and $1,335 describe different universes and dates. The $459, 34.4% spread is a cross-source comparison, not a measured rent change.","q":"Why does the ZORI exceed ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The values are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The modelled figures therefore identify a relative bedroom pattern, but do not measure listing rents, concessions, utilities, or availability for any unit.","q":"Are the bedroom values observed rents?"},{"a":"Annualizing the ZORI produces $71,760 as the income associated with paying 30% of income toward that index. This is an arithmetic screen, not advice, a legal standard, or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS 40.5% burden share separately records surveyed renter households at or above the gross-rent threshold.","q":"What does the 30% threshold show?"},{"a":"The City of Fairbanks, Fairbanks North Star Borough county, and Fairbanks, AK metro values cover wider context than the ZIP/ZCTA match. Their rent, income, and burden measures can show that the relevant scope differs, but they cannot be merged into ZIP ZORI, ACS gross rent, or HUD standards to price a particular property.","q":"How should broader geography be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1737.117908},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1709.45629},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1686.770038},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1713.53039},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1733.00578},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1731.014765},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1740.248238},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1730.638773},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1698.260142},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1720.213443},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1723.68438},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1769.642883},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1748.568192},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1742.453962},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1743.34569},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1735.064047},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1765.171887},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1776.487906},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1790.928977},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1779.522453},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1771.039256},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1774.044822},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1773.365223},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1768.376039},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1769.597665},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1793.404285},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1793.55907},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1802.728478},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1779.85603},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1783.121409},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1771.155296},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1790.193413},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1808.972009},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1797.461458},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1791.504638},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1774.345625},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1794.232804}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":37,"firstPeriod":"2023-06-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":37,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1769.597665,"endRent":1794.232804,"change":0.013921322053733531,"cagr":0.013921322053733531},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1737.117908,"endRent":1794.232804,"change":0.032879113004918636,"cagr":0.010841736298057514}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02898356511560407,"annualizedVolatility":0.035333280027647684,"consecutiveReturnCount":36}}