Cheboygan County presents a price-versus-income-return underwriting tension. Zillow’s county median home value was $257,144 in 2026-06, up 2.33% year over year, while FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 7.18%. The measures share direction but not vintage or method: FHFA is an index, not a home value. Buyers able to validate rent, taxes and insurance should investigate; those requiring demonstrated income should be cautious.
Measured market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,054 FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute for it. The effective property-tax rate is 0.89%; test that burden against property-level assessment rather than mechanically applying it to Zillow’s median value. Obtain rent comps, a rent roll where relevant, utilities, insurance and debt terms before testing cash flow.
Realtor.com MLS listing-market evidence looked less tight: 106 active listings were 9.84% higher year over year, median marketing time was 50 days, and 13.21% had price reductions. These are visible asking-market supply and seller-concession measures, not closed sales or proof of demand. Mover records show a net inflow and higher average income for inbound than outbound households, but remain county-level tax-return evidence. Investor purchase mortgages were 8 of 205 total purchases, a calculated 3.9%; this is limited recorded non-occupant participation, not all-cash or all buyer activity.
QCEW’s 2025 annual covered employment at county workplaces declined while its average weekly covered wage rose; it is neither resident employment nor a forecast. Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with modeled annual climate loss of 0.14% of building value. The thesis can fail if property-level flood exposure or insurance differs from the model, listings do not convert into acceptable sale terms, or rent proves inadequate against operating costs. Next checks: flood zone, insurance quotes, closed comparables, achievable rent, vacancy and property taxes.