De Witt County’s central tension is a fast Zillow value reading against a much slower FHFA transaction-index reading. Investors who require a defensible income return should be cautious; buyers prepared to validate property-level rents, taxes and sales should investigate. Zillow’s county median home value was $161,769, up 11.34% year over year, while the FHFA annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 0.73%. These are distinct vintages and methods, not one comparable growth interval, and neither establishes a closing price.
Income underwriting cannot bridge that conflict: a county market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be calculated. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,036 per month is a payment standard, not asking rent, and must not be substituted. The 1.78% effective property-tax rate adds a disclosed carrying-cost screen, but parcel assessment, exemptions, insurance, maintenance, vacancy and utilities are not published. Without those inputs, net operating income and valuation conclusions remain untested.
Realtor.com’s MLS listing market shows a mixed negotiation setting: 22 active listings, 30.30% more than a year earlier, and 24.80% with price reductions. This is visible asking supply and seller-concession evidence, not closed sales or demand proof. Tax-return migration was negative 18 households; inbound movers’ average AGI was $4,268 below outbound movers’. The record shows 11 investor purchases among 143 total purchases, or 7.69%; that is a measured non-owner share, not a complete measure of buyer competition.
Risk limits are material. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.14% of building value; it is a county-level model, not a property insurance quote or flood determination. QCEW annual workplace data identify Trade, transportation, and utilities as the largest disclosed private supersector, at 40.52% of private covered jobs, rather than a description of the whole economy or resident employment. Next checks are closed-sale comps, lease asks and executed rents, parcel tax bills, flood zone and insurance terms, and vacancy and repair records; without them, exit value, yield and resilience cannot be underwritten.