Edgar County’s tension is a $107,292 median home value alongside soft price evidence in two different measures and no published market rent to test income support. Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was down 3.06% year over year. FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI fell 2.79%, while its separate cumulative five-year change was 29.99%. Do not blend them: FHFA is an index, not a dollar value. This warrants investigation by buyers able to verify property-level income and condition, and caution for those relying on appreciation or assumed rent.
Carrying-cost underwriting is incomplete. County market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $916 per month is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot replace market rent. The reported effective property-tax rate is 1.45%, with median annual tax of $1,409; confirm the parcel bill. Price evidence therefore does not establish cash flow after tax, insurance, maintenance, or vacancy.
Demand evidence is mixed, not a buyer-demand conclusion. QCEW reports 7,158 annual-average covered jobs at county workplaces, and Manufacturing represents 35.68% of private covered employment as the largest disclosed supersector; neither describes resident employment or the whole economy. Tax-return movers produced a net loss of 5 households, while incoming movers’ average AGI was $13,572 below outgoing movers’. Investor participation was 15.43% across 162 purchases: measurable competitor presence, but not proof of bidding pressure or tenant demand. Check submarket employer exposure, household demand, and transaction terms.
Risk limits are material. Inland flood is the named dominant hazard, and the modeled annual expected building-value loss ratio is 0.11%; this is neither a parcel loss estimate nor a dollar forecast. Realtor.com MLS figures for asking prices, active listings, marketing time, price reductions, and pending activity are not published, preventing assessment of visible supply and seller concessions. Next checks need parcel flood exposure and insurance terms, achieved and asking rents, vacancy, expenses, tax bills, and MLS or closed-sale comparables. Without them, debt-service capacity and exit-price support cannot be underwritten.