Greene County’s decision tension is declining price measures against an unmeasured income side. Zillow’s county median home value was $104,523 in 2026-06, down 1.21% year over year, while FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI fell 10.74%. These are differently dated and constructed measures, not a combined appreciation rate; together they warrant caution on current basis support. This county merits investigation by an investor able to verify property-level rent, condition and insurance rather than one relying on broad price momentum.
Housing economics cannot establish a yield. No market asking rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $992 per month, but it is a payment standard rather than market rent and cannot fill that gap. Against the reported home-value level, the 1.75% effective property-tax rate makes tax a carrying-cost input; the $1,661 median annual tax is a separate county statistic, not a parcel quote. The missing market rent prevents testing coverage of tax, insurance and repairs.
Realtor.com’s MLS listing-market evidence shows 22 active listings and a median 64 days on market. The reported price-reduced share is an indicator of seller concessions; these are asking supply and marketing-time measures, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. QCEW’s 2025 annual count was 2,254 covered jobs at workplaces in the county, down 0.92%; it is neither resident employment nor unemployment. Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector. Net migration was negative 73 tax-return households, although inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $11,172. Only 5 of 90 purchase mortgages were to non-occupants, identifying a narrow observed slice of investor participation rather than the whole buyer mix.
Risk limits remain material. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.17% of building value; this is a modeled ratio, not a property-specific loss estimate. County evidence cannot identify flood zone, deductible, replacement cost, tenant depth, vacancy, operating expenses, financing terms, or submarket conditions. Next checks are address-level flood and insurance quotes, achieved rents and lease-up history, tax assessment, condition, and comparable closed sales.