Mariposa County’s underwriting tension is a falling Zillow county value against a rising FHFA transaction index, alongside wildfire exposure and unmeasured rent. Zillow reported a $400,344 median home value in 2026-06, down 1.11% year over year; FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI was up 9.9% year over year. These are different vintages and methods, not one appreciation rate. Income investors and leverage-sensitive buyers should investigate parcel-level evidence before relying on either direction.
No county market asking rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,454 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent, and cannot fill that gap. The effective property-tax rate is 0.61%, with median annual tax of $2,377; neither establishes taxes for a specific assessment. Rent, insurance, financing and operating-cost evidence is needed to test whether income covers carrying costs.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing market shows 149 active listings, 82 median days on market, 16.11% with price reductions and a 23.15% pending-to-active ratio. This is visible asking supply, marketing time and seller-concession evidence, not closed-sale pricing or proof of buyer demand by itself. Outmovers exceeded inmovers, but incoming movers averaged a calculated $23,880 more AGI than outgoing movers. Investor purchase mortgages represented a 13.79% share of recorded total purchase mortgages, indicating non-owner competition without establishing its pricing influence.
Wildfire is the dominant hazard; the modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.53% of building value expected annually, a model output rather than an insurance quote or a parcel loss estimate. QCEW identifies leisure and hospitality as the largest disclosed private supersector, but this is covered employment at county workplaces, not resident employment or a forecast. Missing parcel hazard scores, insurance availability and premiums, property condition, recent closed comps and market rent prevent a complete cash-flow, liquidity and insurability conclusion.