Montgomery County’s decision tension is a recent Zillow value gain against an FHFA repeat-transaction setback, while rental income is unmeasured. Investors who need current cash-flow evidence should be cautious; those screening acquisition basis should investigate why the series disagree. Zillow’s county observation puts median home value at $128,856, up 6.34%. The FHFA annual observation fell 3.24%; it is an index of repeat transactions, not a home value, and neither measure should be blended.
No county market rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $937 per month is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate and cannot fill that gap. Carrying-cost review matters: the effective property-tax rate is 1.68%, and median annual tax is $1,887. Before treating the value figure as an acquisition basis, obtain unit-specific taxes, assessments, utilities, repairs, insurance, and market-rent comps; without them, net operating income and coverage cannot be underwritten.
MLS listing-market evidence shows 42 active listings, down 6.67%, with median marketing time of 42 days, down 36.26%; those are visible supply and time-to-market, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was negative 80 households, while non-occupant purchases were 3.52% of 199 total purchases, a limited investor presence. These signals warrant buyer-pool and submarket checks rather than a broad demand conclusion.
Risk limits remain material. Inland flood is dominant, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.15% of building value; this is a modeled loss ratio, not a site-specific damage forecast. Annual QCEW covered employment at county workplaces rose 0.67%, but average weekly covered-worker wage declined 40.92%; neither is resident employment or a forecast. Verify flood zone, claims, insurance terms, property condition, lease rents, and actual sales before relying on this county-level screen.