Ontonagon County presents a verification-first tension: Zillow’s county median home value was $132,975 in the 2026-06 observation, with an 8.92% year-over-year rise, while the FHFA repeat-transaction HPI fell 4.49% in its separately labeled 2025 annual observation. These are different vintages and measures: the FHFA index is not a home value, and the changes should not be averaged. The record therefore suits buyers who can test a property’s rent, condition, and flood exposure; it warrants caution for underwriting that relies on a single appreciation signal.
No county market asking rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $973 per month, but it is a payment standard rather than market rent and cannot substitute for it. The effective property-tax rate is 1.16%, and median annual property tax is $1,294; each is a carrying-cost input, although county medians do not establish a specific parcel bill. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.09% of building value, making site-level insurance and mitigation review material.
Workplace evidence is stable rather than expansive: QCEW reports 1,338 annual average covered jobs, unchanged from the prior annual average. Trade, transportation, and utilities represents 46.99% of disclosed private covered employment; that identifies the largest disclosed private supersector, not the full county economy or resident employment. Tax-return migration shows a net gain of 7 households, while average income for movers in exceeded movers out by a calculated $15,571. Investor purchases were 3 of 38 total purchases, or 7.89%, a limited source of buyer competition rather than proof of rental demand.
MLS listing-market measures are not published in this record, preventing an assessment of asking-price direction, active visible supply, marketing time, or seller price reductions; they would not be closed-sale evidence in any event. Missing market-rent comps, vacancy, lease-up, operating expenses, insurance quotes, and parcel flood history prevent a property-level cash-flow and hazard conclusion. Check whether actual achievable rent supports taxes, insurance, and maintenance; validate the relevant flood exposure; and obtain current MLS and closed-sale comparables before treating the conflicting Zillow and FHFA signals as a pricing conclusion. County-level migration and QCEW evidence cannot settle neighborhood demand or tenant quality.