Pope County’s central tension is a $148,158 Zillow median home value in 2026-06, up 8.22% year over year, against a sharply smaller local covered-job base. It merits property-level investigation where rent, tenant depth and flood costs can be verified, and caution where underwriting relies on local employment resilience. Zillow is a county home-value observation, not a closed-sale price. No FHFA annual repeat-transaction HPI is published, so no independent index can confirm or challenge Zillow’s direction.
Market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,087 monthly, but it is a payment standard, not market asking rent, and cannot be substituted. The effective property-tax rate is 1.03%, with median annual tax of $1,477; both are carrying-cost inputs, but their applicability to a specific asset’s assessment and bill is unknown. No rent-to-price comparison is supported.
Demand evidence is mixed and limited. QCEW reports 432 annual average covered jobs at county workplaces in 2025, down 32.81% from its prior annual average; this is neither resident employment nor unemployment. Leisure and hospitality, the largest disclosed private supersector, has 55 covered jobs, identifying only the disclosed leader. Migration records 74 incoming and 87 outgoing tax-return households, a net loss of 13, although incoming movers averaged $15,098 more income. Investor mortgages were 8.70% of 23 purchases. These measures do not establish tenant demand, cash-buyer activity, or buyer demand generally.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.25% of building value. This county-level model is neither an insurance quote nor a parcel loss estimate; together with absent rent, it blocks a credible net-cash-flow screen. Realtor.com inventory is labeled 2026-06, but MLS listing price, active listings, days on market, and price-reduced share are not published. Visible supply, marketing time and seller concessions remain unassessed. Check parcel flood exposure and insurance terms, actual rents and occupancy, tax assessment, and current listings.