Sanilac County’s decision tension is measured price appreciation against incomplete income and hazard underwriting. Its Zillow June 2026 median home value is $208,363, up 2.14% year over year. Separately, FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction index rose 5.53%. The measures point in the same direction, but the index is not a home value and the differently dated, differently constructed series should not be averaged. The county warrants investigation where leases and parcel risks can be verified; it is a weak screen for an unverified yield case.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. The $973 HUD two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute for it. The effective property-tax rate is 0.90%; this establishes a carrying-cost input, but absent insurance, maintenance, and rent evidence it does not establish net operating economics. Underwriting should obtain actual achieved or asking rents and property-specific tax and insurance bills before comparing income with price.
Demand evidence is mixed. QCEW annual covered employment at workplaces fell; it is not resident employment or unemployment, while Manufacturing is the largest disclosed private supersector. Realtor.com’s MLS listing record has 154 active listings and 22.39% of listings price-reduced. Active listings measure visible supply, while reductions indicate seller concessions; neither proves closed-sale pricing or buyer demand. Tax-return movers show net migration of -10, yet inbound movers’ average AGI exceeds outbound by $10,246. Investor mortgages accounted for 24 of 373 purchase mortgages, or 6.43%; this participation should be assessed alongside total purchase activity, not presumed to represent cash investors.
Risk limits are material. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.11%; it is not a parcel-level loss estimate. County averages cannot identify flood zone, elevation, deductible, coverage availability, or repair exposure. Next checks are parcel flood and insurance records, lease comps and vacancy, operating statements, and closed-sale/list-to-sale evidence. Without them, an underwriter cannot price hazard carrying costs, establish market income, or judge whether MLS asking conditions translate into executable acquisition pricing.