Union County has a split decision frame: Zillow’s county median home value in 2026-06 was $148,877 and higher year over year, while the FHFA repeat-transaction HPI rose 13.06% in 2025. Buyers able to validate rent, condition and insurance should investigate; those needing demonstrated tenant demand and exit liquidity should be cautious. FHFA is an appreciation index, not a dollar home value. Its 2025 direction can support Zillow’s direction, but the methods and labeled periods cannot be averaged.
Income underwriting is incomplete because median asking market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot fill that gap. The effective property-tax rate is 1.30%, with a $1,712 median annual tax. These are carrying-cost inputs, but county medians do not identify a subject parcel’s assessment or tax bill. The price-to-rent relationship remains unmeasured.
In Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing market, median listing price increased year over year, but visible supply was 44 active listings and median marketing time was 79 days. The 5.08% price-reduced share is evidence of seller concessions. These are asking-price, active-supply and marketing-time measures, not closed-sale prices. The pending-to-active measure describes an MLS pipeline only and does not by itself establish buyer demand. Recent closed comparables and property-level listing history are needed before setting exit value or marketing time.
Labor, migration and ownership data add limits on tenant-demand conclusions. QCEW’s 2025 annual covered workplace employment contracted while average covered-worker wages increased; Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Net tax-return migration was -34, and the mover AGI gap was -$1,416, with inbound movers reporting lower average income. Non-occupant purchase mortgages were 8.54% of 82 purchases, a minority measure that excludes non-mortgage activity. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with modeled annual building-value loss of 0.24%. Verify flood zone, insurance terms, lease comparables and parcel tax before underwriting.