Washington County presents a verification tension: Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value was $209,160, up 0.43% year over year, whereas FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI gained 6.48% in its separate annual 2025 reading. These are different methods and observations: FHFA is an appreciation index, not a home value. Buyers should test property-specific basis rather than treat stronger index appreciation as current pricing; rent-dependent and flood-sensitive acquisitions deserve caution.
County market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,252 monthly, but it is a payment standard, not a market-rent estimate, and cannot substitute for rent. The 1.04% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input, not the tax bill for a specific parcel. Without rent, operating expenses, insurance, financing terms, and assessed value, net cash flow and price-to-rent affordability cannot be underwritten.
Realtor.com MLS evidence reports active listings up 19.56% year over year, a 64-day median marketing time, and 17.29% of listings reduced in price. These are asking-market visibility and seller-concession measures, not closed sales or proof of buyer demand. QCEW’s annual covered employment at county workplaces declined 0.93%; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Net migration was 67 tax-return households, alongside a $10,977 incoming-versus-outgoing mover AGI gap. That pairing indicates positive household flow with higher-income movers, but not tenant-demand proof. Investor activity was 27 purchase mortgages to non-occupants out of 284 total purchase mortgages; property-type and financing mix still need checking.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard. Modeled climate loss is 0.14% of building value per year, not a property-specific insurance quote or dollar loss. The thesis can fail if parcel flood exposure and insurance exceed assumptions, if unavailable market rents do not cover taxes and other carrying costs, or if MLS measures do not translate into executable sale or lease terms. Next checks are address-level flood and insurance records, current achieved and asking rents, lease-up evidence, parcel taxes and condition, sale comparables, and buyer and tenant segmentation; their absence prevents net-yield, liquidity, and hazard-adjusted conclusions.