Williamson County merits investigation by income-focused buyers, but exit-value underwriting warrants caution: the $161,773 median home value in Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation was 0.50% lower year over year, while median asking rent was $1,037 per month, up 5.04%, and the supplied gross yield was 7.69% before costs. That tension favors verifying unit-level rent durability and acquisition basis rather than treating the yield as an all-in return.
Market rent, not HUD FMR, supports that yield calculation. The HUD two-bedroom FMR matches the reported rent level, but it is a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate. The effective property-tax rate is 1.72%, with a $2,690 median annual tax, so headline yield excludes an important carrying cost. Separately, the FHFA repeat-transaction HPI rose 5.04% in 2025; it is an index, not a home value, and its different method and vintage cannot be blended with Zillow’s change.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS evidence presents a softer visible listing market: median listing price fell 8.02% year over year and active listings rose 28.48%. Marketing time lengthened and price reductions were present, but these are asking-price, visible-supply, marketing-time and seller-concession signals—not closed sales or standalone proof of buyer demand. Investors accounted for 12.03% of 740 purchases, a measurable competing buyer cohort. Tax-return moves were net positive, while inbound movers had lower average income than out-movers; this limits a simple migration-demand reading.
Earthquake is the named dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.22% of building value; it is modeled exposure, not a property-specific loss estimate. QCEW records covered employment at county workplaces, and Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector; neither establishes resident employment, unemployment, or a forecast. Missing operating expenses, insurance and seismic-condition data, vacancy, property-level tax bills, sales comparables and lease terms prevent net-yield, replacement-cost and exit-price conclusions. Next checks should test those items and local rent comparables before county averages support a deal-level conclusion.