Zillow rent + home-value history

When asking-rent growth and home-value growth diverge

Which US rental markets saw Zillow asking rent move materially faster or slower than Zillow home values over the latest exact five-year window?

Rent and home values can pull in different directions even inside the same market. This study holds the month endpoints constant, publishes both direct Zillow series and keeps their growth gap separate from yield.

Markets compared
319
four direct same-month endpoints
Rent ahead
191
gap above two percentage points
Home values ahead
63
gap below minus two points
Median growth gap
4.4%
rent change minus home-value change
What the shared window reveals

The direction of the gap matters more than a single growth headline

The exact five-year intersection contains 319 current market areas from 2021-06 to 2026-06. Median Zillow asking rent changed 30.0%, while median Zillow home value changed 26.4%. Their median rent-minus-value gap is 4.4%.

Abilene, TX has the largest rent-ahead gap at 61.3%: asking rent changed 87.0% while home values changed 25.6%. That divergence can affect the direction of a gross-yield screen, but it does not contain operating expenses or a property acquisition price.

ZORI and ZHVI are two market indexes, not a matched set of properties. A growth gap is not appreciation, net return or evidence that the same unit produced both endpoints.

At the other end, McAllen, TX records a -14.1% gap, with rent changing 16.6% and home values changing 30.7%. Open the interactive history explorer to inspect the monthly path and exact dollar endpoints before moving to supply, jobs and property-level underwriting.

319 markets with four direct endpoints

Five-year asking-rent change versus home-value change

Above the diagonal, Zillow asking rent changed faster; below it, Zillow home values changed faster.

Metro rent growth compared with home-value growthScatter plot using exact same-month Zillow ZORI and ZHVI endpoints five years apart. Points above the diagonal have asking-rent change greater than home-value change.-9%-9%11%11%31%31%51%51%71%71%90%90%rent = home-value changeAbilene, TX: rent 87.0%, home value 25.6%, gap 61.3%Johnstown, PA: rent 36.4%, home value -9.2%, gap 45.5%Williston, ND: rent 50.0%, home value 13.3%, gap 36.7%New Orleans, LA: rent 19.8%, home value -4.5%, gap 24.3%Sumter, SC: rent 38.6%, home value 16.0%, gap 22.6%Redding, CA: rent 30.4%, home value 8.5%, gap 21.8%Jackson, MI: rent 43.2%, home value 21.3%, gap 21.8%Oak Harbor, WA: rent 34.2%, home value 12.4%, gap 21.8%Beaumont, TX: rent 24.8%, home value 3.6%, gap 21.3%San Francisco, CA: rent 24.7%, home value 3.8%, gap 20.9%Punta Gorda, FL: rent 27.1%, home value 7.2%, gap 19.9%Shreveport, LA: rent 24.4%, home value 4.6%, gap 19.8%Fairbanks, AK: rent 29.3%, home value 9.6%, gap 19.7%Ruston, LA: rent 26.7%, home value 8.2%, gap 18.5%Odessa, TX: rent 31.9%, home value 13.8%, gap 18.1%Tuscaloosa, AL: rent 34.7%, home value 16.9%, gap 17.8%Corvallis, OR: rent 37.9%, home value 20.3%, gap 17.6%Salinas, CA: rent 33.2%, home value 16.1%, gap 17.0%Midland, TX: rent 32.3%, home value 15.3%, gap 16.9%Florence, AL: rent 44.7%, home value 27.9%, gap 16.9%Harrisonburg, VA: rent 43.2%, home value 26.5%, gap 16.7%Chico, CA: rent 18.7%, home value 2.1%, gap 16.6%Boise City, ID: rent 19.0%, home value 2.6%, gap 16.5%Columbia, MO: rent 47.9%, home value 32.3%, gap 15.7%Santa Rosa, CA: rent 20.2%, home value 4.8%, gap 15.4%Eugene, OR: rent 29.5%, home value 14.4%, gap 15.1%Gulfport, MS: rent 36.6%, home value 21.9%, gap 14.7%Lafayette, LA: rent 17.9%, home value 3.3%, gap 14.6%Enterprise, AL: rent 35.8%, home value 21.3%, gap 14.4%Cheyenne, WY: rent 29.1%, home value 14.7%, gap 14.4%Pueblo, CO: rent 23.4%, home value 9.0%, gap 14.3%Medford, OR: rent 22.8%, home value 8.5%, gap 14.3%New York, NY: rent 42.2%, home value 27.9%, gap 14.3%Tallahassee, FL: rent 37.1%, home value 23.1%, gap 14.0%Urban Honolulu, HI: rent 27.5%, home value 13.5%, gap 14.0%Carbondale, IL: rent 31.9%, home value 18.0%, gap 13.9%Boulder, CO: rent 21.8%, home value 8.1%, gap 13.6%Laredo, TX: rent 26.9%, home value 13.3%, gap 13.6%Lake Charles, LA: rent 5.9%, home value -7.7%, gap 13.6%Stillwater, OK: rent 41.1%, home value 27.7%, gap 13.4%Pittsburgh, PA: rent 25.9%, home value 12.7%, gap 13.2%Winchester, VA: rent 37.3%, home value 24.6%, gap 12.7%Santa Cruz, CA: rent 26.5%, home value 13.9%, gap 12.6%Yuba City, CA: rent 23.2%, home value 10.8%, gap 12.4%Austin, TX: rent 3.5%, home value -8.7%, gap 12.2%Albany, OR: rent 31.9%, home value 19.9%, gap 12.0%Napa, CA: rent 16.2%, home value 4.3%, gap 11.9%Lawton, OK: rent 38.8%, home value 26.9%, gap 11.9%Binghamton, NY: rent 51.7%, home value 39.8%, gap 11.8%Santa Fe, NM: rent 29.4%, home value 17.8%, gap 11.6%Auburn, AL: rent 43.1%, home value 31.5%, gap 11.6%Mobile, AL: rent 34.1%, home value 22.6%, gap 11.5%Sebastian, FL: rent 36.1%, home value 24.7%, gap 11.3%Niles, MI: rent 41.4%, home value 30.1%, gap 11.3%Bloomington, IL: rent 47.5%, home value 36.2%, gap 11.2%Anchorage, AK: rent 34.3%, home value 23.2%, gap 11.0%Mount Vernon, WA: rent 29.0%, home value 18.0%, gap 11.0%Fort Collins, CO: rent 24.3%, home value 13.3%, gap 11.0%Bellingham, WA: rent 28.1%, home value 17.2%, gap 10.9%Sacramento, CA: rent 18.0%, home value 7.2%, gap 10.8%Muskegon, MI: rent 40.5%, home value 29.7%, gap 10.8%Springfield, MA: rent 40.4%, home value 29.7%, gap 10.7%Lawrence, KS: rent 41.2%, home value 30.5%, gap 10.7%Stockton, CA: rent 16.1%, home value 5.6%, gap 10.4%Merced, CA: rent 26.4%, home value 16.0%, gap 10.4%Roanoke, VA: rent 44.1%, home value 33.9%, gap 10.2%State College, PA: rent 31.0%, home value 20.8%, gap 10.2%Wheeling, WV: rent 20.6%, home value 10.4%, gap 10.2%San Angelo, TX: rent 23.0%, home value 12.8%, gap 10.2%Staunton, VA: rent 37.7%, home value 27.6%, gap 10.1%Greeley, CO: rent 19.6%, home value 9.6%, gap 10.0%Huntington, WV: rent 27.5%, home value 17.9%, gap 9.6%Seattle, WA: rent 22.5%, home value 12.8%, gap 9.6%Vallejo, CA: rent 14.4%, home value 4.8%, gap 9.6%Bremerton, WA: rent 20.6%, home value 11.3%, gap 9.4%Kahului, HI: rent 32.7%, home value 23.4%, gap 9.3%Modesto, CA: rent 22.7%, home value 13.7%, gap 8.9%Washington, DC: rent 22.5%, home value 13.6%, gap 8.9%Grand Junction, CO: rent 37.9%, home value 29.1%, gap 8.8%Lansing, MI: rent 35.6%, home value 26.8%, gap 8.8%Chicago, IL: rent 36.7%, home value 28.0%, gap 8.7%Bismarck, ND: rent 35.7%, home value 27.1%, gap 8.6%Kokomo, IN: rent 49.7%, home value 41.3%, gap 8.4%Cedar Rapids, IA: rent 35.0%, home value 26.6%, gap 8.4%Colorado Springs, CO: rent 15.8%, home value 7.4%, gap 8.3%Morgantown, WV: rent 24.9%, home value 16.6%, gap 8.3%Ann Arbor, MI: rent 28.1%, home value 19.8%, gap 8.3%Olympia, WA: rent 22.9%, home value 14.7%, gap 8.2%Grand Forks, ND: rent 33.8%, home value 25.6%, gap 8.2%Charleston, WV: rent 32.7%, home value 24.5%, gap 8.2%Idaho Falls, ID: rent 21.5%, home value 13.3%, gap 8.2%Springfield, IL: rent 39.1%, home value 31.1%, gap 8.0%Worcester, MA: rent 39.0%, home value 31.1%, gap 7.9%Chambersburg, PA: rent 32.7%, home value 24.8%, gap 7.8%Portland, OR: rent 16.1%, home value 8.3%, gap 7.8%San Luis Obispo, CA: rent 32.6%, home value 25.0%, gap 7.7%Johnson City, TN: rent 45.7%, home value 38.0%, gap 7.7%Wenatchee, WA: rent 21.4%, home value 13.7%, gap 7.7%Toledo, OH: rent 34.4%, home value 26.8%, gap 7.6%Gainesville, FL: rent 30.2%, home value 22.6%, gap 7.6%East Stroudsburg, PA: rent 36.4%, home value 28.8%, gap 7.6%Greensboro, NC: rent 34.4%, home value 26.8%, gap 7.6%Salem, OR: rent 22.5%, home value 15.0%, gap 7.5%San Jose, CA: rent 27.2%, home value 19.7%, gap 7.5%Flint, MI: rent 34.6%, home value 27.0%, gap 7.5%Blacksburg, VA: rent 31.9%, home value 24.5%, gap 7.4%St. Louis, MO: rent 32.3%, home value 25.0%, gap 7.3%Wichita Falls, TX: rent 32.5%, home value 25.2%, gap 7.2%Evansville, IN: rent 39.1%, home value 31.9%, gap 7.2%Cape Coral, FL: rent 22.9%, home value 15.8%, gap 7.2%Boston, MA: rent 31.2%, home value 24.1%, gap 7.1%Akron, OH: rent 38.4%, home value 31.5%, gap 6.9%Rexburg, ID: rent 30.0%, home value 23.2%, gap 6.8%St. George, UT: rent 22.5%, home value 15.8%, gap 6.7%Providence, RI: rent 39.7%, home value 33.1%, gap 6.6%Jackson, MS: rent 28.1%, home value 21.7%, gap 6.4%Louisville, KY: rent 30.4%, home value 24.1%, gap 6.3%College Station, TX: rent 28.9%, home value 22.6%, gap 6.3%Virginia Beach, VA: rent 32.9%, home value 26.6%, gap 6.3%Omaha, NE: rent 30.7%, home value 24.5%, gap 6.2%Deltona, FL: rent 26.4%, home value 20.2%, gap 6.2%Warrensburg, MO: rent 29.8%, home value 23.6%, gap 6.2%Minneapolis, MN: rent 18.5%, home value 12.4%, gap 6.1%Bloomington, IN: rent 29.8%, home value 23.7%, gap 6.1%Bozeman, MT: rent 20.8%, home value 14.7%, gap 6.1%Richmond, KY: rent 37.7%, home value 31.8%, gap 5.9%Provo, UT: rent 22.1%, home value 16.3%, gap 5.8%Denver, CO: rent 12.6%, home value 6.9%, gap 5.8%Baltimore, MD: rent 22.4%, home value 16.7%, gap 5.7%Davenport, IA: rent 25.3%, home value 19.6%, gap 5.7%Champaign, IL: rent 38.3%, home value 32.8%, gap 5.5%Reno, NV: rent 20.0%, home value 14.5%, gap 5.5%Peoria, IL: rent 43.7%, home value 38.2%, gap 5.5%Oxnard, CA: rent 23.3%, home value 17.8%, gap 5.5%Charlottesville, VA: rent 29.2%, home value 23.8%, gap 5.4%Indianapolis, IN: rent 31.5%, home value 26.3%, gap 5.3%Kansas City, MO: rent 32.0%, home value 26.8%, gap 5.3%Burlington, VT: rent 29.8%, home value 24.5%, gap 5.3%Kennewick, WA: rent 24.9%, home value 19.7%, gap 5.2%Brownsville, TX: rent 36.6%, home value 31.4%, gap 5.2%Corpus Christi, TX: rent 11.9%, home value 6.7%, gap 5.2%Montgomery, AL: rent 32.4%, home value 27.2%, gap 5.2%Charleston, SC: rent 37.3%, home value 32.2%, gap 5.1%Hagerstown, MD: rent 33.8%, home value 28.6%, gap 5.1%Lake Havasu City, AZ: rent 20.1%, home value 15.0%, gap 5.1%Topeka, KS: rent 41.0%, home value 35.9%, gap 5.1%Bakersfield, CA: rent 32.6%, home value 27.6%, gap 5.1%Lynchburg, VA: rent 36.5%, home value 31.4%, gap 5.1%San Diego, CA: rent 29.9%, home value 24.9%, gap 4.9%Lafayette, IN: rent 40.0%, home value 35.1%, gap 4.9%Port St. Lucie, FL: rent 32.6%, home value 27.8%, gap 4.9%Fargo, ND: rent 26.1%, home value 21.3%, gap 4.8%Valdosta, GA: rent 42.9%, home value 38.1%, gap 4.8%Birmingham, AL: rent 23.1%, home value 18.4%, gap 4.8%Waco, TX: rent 26.6%, home value 22.0%, gap 4.6%Fresno, CA: rent 27.0%, home value 22.4%, gap 4.6%Palm Bay, FL: rent 26.3%, home value 21.8%, gap 4.5%Cincinnati, OH: rent 32.0%, home value 27.6%, gap 4.5%Visalia, CA: rent 28.9%, home value 24.5%, gap 4.4%Columbus, IN: rent 37.0%, home value 32.6%, gap 4.4%Minot, ND: rent 30.8%, home value 26.6%, gap 4.2%South Bend, IN: rent 41.3%, home value 37.2%, gap 4.2%Tucson, AZ: rent 21.2%, home value 17.2%, gap 4.1%North Port, FL: rent 21.4%, home value 17.4%, gap 4.0%Hot Springs, AR: rent 34.2%, home value 30.2%, gap 4.0%Bend, OR: rent 13.7%, home value 9.8%, gap 3.8%Fort Smith, AR: rent 33.6%, home value 29.7%, gap 3.8%Florence, SC: rent 31.4%, home value 27.6%, gap 3.8%Tampa, FL: rent 26.7%, home value 23.0%, gap 3.7%Asheville, NC: rent 25.5%, home value 21.7%, gap 3.7%Torrington, CT: rent 42.1%, home value 38.4%, gap 3.7%Lincoln, NE: rent 29.5%, home value 26.0%, gap 3.5%Homosassa Springs, FL: rent 27.7%, home value 24.4%, gap 3.3%Madison, WI: rent 32.9%, home value 29.7%, gap 3.2%Spokane, WA: rent 16.9%, home value 13.7%, gap 3.2%Augusta, ME: rent 39.4%, home value 36.2%, gap 3.1%Lexington, KY: rent 38.2%, home value 35.2%, gap 3.1%Detroit, MI: rent 26.3%, home value 23.3%, gap 3.0%Kankakee, IL: rent 34.5%, home value 31.5%, gap 2.9%Cleveland, OH: rent 35.4%, home value 32.5%, gap 2.9%Terre Haute, IN: rent 34.7%, home value 31.8%, gap 2.9%Kalamazoo, MI: rent 29.2%, home value 26.4%, gap 2.8%Baton Rouge, LA: rent 18.3%, home value 15.7%, gap 2.7%Riverside, CA: rent 25.1%, home value 22.4%, gap 2.7%Rock Springs, WY: rent 25.3%, home value 22.8%, gap 2.5%Crestview, FL: rent 20.0%, home value 17.6%, gap 2.4%Daphne, AL: rent 24.6%, home value 22.2%, gap 2.4%Amarillo, TX: rent 29.1%, home value 26.8%, gap 2.3%Winston, NC: rent 32.1%, home value 29.8%, gap 2.3%Utica, NY: rent 42.5%, home value 40.3%, gap 2.2%Canton, OH: rent 36.9%, home value 34.7%, gap 2.2%Richmond, VA: rent 30.6%, home value 28.7%, gap 2.0%Portland, ME: rent 31.7%, home value 29.9%, gap 1.7%Longview, TX: rent 26.6%, home value 24.9%, gap 1.7%Hickory, NC: rent 33.4%, home value 31.8%, gap 1.7%Iowa City, IA: rent 27.2%, home value 25.7%, gap 1.4%Rapid City, SD: rent 33.3%, home value 31.9%, gap 1.4%Heber, UT: rent 30.3%, home value 29.0%, gap 1.3%Los Angeles, CA: rent 24.3%, home value 23.1%, gap 1.3%Miami, FL: rent 35.2%, home value 34.0%, gap 1.2%Rochester, MN: rent 23.5%, home value 22.4%, gap 1.1%Columbia, SC: rent 32.6%, home value 31.5%, gap 1.1%Jonesboro, AR: rent 25.7%, home value 24.6%, gap 1.0%New Bern, NC: rent 40.9%, home value 39.8%, gap 1.0%Fort Wayne, IN: rent 37.0%, home value 36.0%, gap 1.0%Salt Lake City, UT: rent 18.1%, home value 17.1%, gap 0.9%Moses Lake, WA: rent 22.6%, home value 21.7%, gap 0.9%Oshkosh, WI: rent 36.6%, home value 35.7%, gap 0.9%Lakeland, FL: rent 24.0%, home value 23.2%, gap 0.9%Memphis, TN: rent 20.7%, home value 19.9%, gap 0.7%Pittsfield, MA: rent 36.1%, home value 35.4%, gap 0.7%Ogden, UT: rent 21.5%, home value 20.9%, gap 0.6%Columbus, GA: rent 30.1%, home value 29.5%, gap 0.5%Reading, PA: rent 35.9%, home value 35.4%, gap 0.5%Racine, WI: rent 34.1%, home value 33.6%, gap 0.5%Santa Maria, CA: rent 34.4%, home value 33.9%, gap 0.5%Manhattan, KS: rent 29.1%, home value 28.7%, gap 0.3%Dallas, TX: rent 15.9%, home value 15.6%, gap 0.2%Sioux Falls, SD: rent 27.3%, home value 27.2%, gap 0.2%Athens, GA: rent 34.9%, home value 34.8%, gap 0.1%Scranton, PA: rent 31.0%, home value 30.9%, gap 0.1%Columbus, OH: rent 26.0%, home value 25.9%, gap 0.1%Bowling Green, KY: rent 28.3%, home value 28.2%, gap 0.1%Grand Rapids, MI: rent 31.3%, home value 31.3%, gap 0.0%Greenville, NC: rent 37.7%, home value 37.7%, gap 0.0%Key West, FL: rent 31.7%, home value 31.7%, gap 0.0%Augusta, GA: rent 27.4%, home value 27.5%, gap -0.1%Saginaw, MI: rent 39.2%, home value 39.6%, gap -0.4%Pensacola, FL: rent 23.1%, home value 23.6%, gap -0.4%Little Rock, AR: rent 23.0%, home value 23.4%, gap -0.4%Barnstable Town, MA: rent 32.2%, home value 32.7%, gap -0.5%Billings, MT: rent 31.0%, home value 31.6%, gap -0.6%St. Cloud, MN: rent 28.3%, home value 29.0%, gap -0.7%Houston, TX: rent 15.2%, home value 15.9%, gap -0.7%Erie, PA: rent 39.4%, home value 40.2%, gap -0.8%Lancaster, PA: rent 34.3%, home value 35.3%, gap -1.0%York, PA: rent 31.5%, home value 32.6%, gap -1.1%Orlando, FL: rent 24.8%, home value 25.9%, gap -1.1%Casper, WY: rent 27.7%, home value 28.9%, gap -1.2%Hutchinson, KS: rent 35.4%, home value 36.7%, gap -1.3%San Antonio, TX: rent 7.8%, home value 9.1%, gap -1.3%Missoula, MT: rent 25.4%, home value 26.8%, gap -1.3%Tulsa, OK: rent 29.0%, home value 30.4%, gap -1.3%Bangor, ME: rent 35.5%, home value 36.9%, gap -1.4%Albuquerque, NM: rent 30.2%, home value 31.7%, gap -1.4%Myrtle Beach, SC: rent 27.6%, home value 29.0%, gap -1.5%Lubbock, TX: rent 14.7%, home value 16.2%, gap -1.5%Muncie, IN: rent 40.9%, home value 42.4%, gap -1.5%Oklahoma City, OK: rent 24.7%, home value 26.3%, gap -1.6%Phoenix, AZ: rent 12.5%, home value 14.2%, gap -1.6%Milwaukee, WI: rent 30.0%, home value 31.6%, gap -1.7%Youngstown, OH: rent 36.1%, home value 37.8%, gap -1.7%Manchester, NH: rent 33.6%, home value 35.3%, gap -1.7%Frankfort, KY: rent 35.2%, home value 36.9%, gap -1.7%Ames, IA: rent 22.4%, home value 24.4%, gap -2.0%Flagstaff, AZ: rent 26.9%, home value 28.9%, gap -2.0%Las Cruces, NM: rent 30.8%, home value 32.9%, gap -2.1%Atlantic City, NJ: rent 46.5%, home value 48.7%, gap -2.2%Lebanon, PA: rent 35.5%, home value 37.7%, gap -2.2%Norwich, CT: rent 41.4%, home value 43.6%, gap -2.3%Philadelphia, PA: rent 26.0%, home value 28.6%, gap -2.6%Great Falls, MT: rent 44.6%, home value 47.2%, gap -2.7%Harrisburg, PA: rent 28.8%, home value 31.6%, gap -2.7%Buffalo, NY: rent 31.2%, home value 34.0%, gap -2.7%Sebring, FL: rent 32.2%, home value 35.1%, gap -2.9%Huntsville, AL: rent 16.8%, home value 19.7%, gap -2.9%Jacksonville, FL: rent 19.9%, home value 22.9%, gap -3.0%Ocala, FL: rent 26.1%, home value 29.1%, gap -3.0%Sherman, TX: rent 12.7%, home value 15.8%, gap -3.0%Burlington, NC: rent 36.0%, home value 39.0%, gap -3.1%Killeen, TX: rent 17.0%, home value 20.1%, gap -3.1%Des Moines, IA: rent 18.5%, home value 21.6%, gap -3.1%New Haven, CT: rent 38.9%, home value 42.1%, gap -3.3%Springfield, MO: rent 29.4%, home value 32.8%, gap -3.4%Trenton, NJ: rent 34.3%, home value 37.7%, gap -3.4%Ithaca, NY: rent 33.2%, home value 36.7%, gap -3.5%Duluth, MN: rent 28.7%, home value 32.2%, gap -3.5%Wichita, KS: rent 30.3%, home value 33.9%, gap -3.6%Fayetteville, NC: rent 33.2%, home value 37.0%, gap -3.8%Albany, NY: rent 30.0%, home value 33.8%, gap -3.8%El Paso, TX: rent 31.6%, home value 35.4%, gap -3.8%Allentown, PA: rent 29.9%, home value 33.8%, gap -3.9%Albany, GA: rent 28.9%, home value 32.9%, gap -4.0%Jacksonville, NC: rent 38.6%, home value 42.7%, gap -4.2%Atlanta, GA: rent 19.1%, home value 23.3%, gap -4.2%Wilmington, NC: rent 29.4%, home value 33.6%, gap -4.2%Dover, DE: rent 26.6%, home value 30.9%, gap -4.3%Warner Robins, GA: rent 35.2%, home value 39.6%, gap -4.4%Coeur d'Alene, ID: rent 12.3%, home value 16.7%, gap -4.4%Green Bay, WI: rent 38.1%, home value 42.8%, gap -4.7%Chattanooga, TN: rent 24.2%, home value 29.2%, gap -5.0%Waterloo, IA: rent 23.7%, home value 28.9%, gap -5.2%Greenville, SC: rent 25.6%, home value 30.8%, gap -5.3%Savannah, GA: rent 31.6%, home value 36.8%, gap -5.3%Durham, NC: rent 20.5%, home value 26.1%, gap -5.7%Charlotte, NC: rent 21.7%, home value 27.4%, gap -5.7%Spartanburg, SC: rent 27.3%, home value 33.0%, gap -5.7%Cleveland, TN: rent 29.0%, home value 34.7%, gap -5.7%Hinesville, GA: rent 42.5%, home value 48.2%, gap -5.8%Bridgeport, CT: rent 30.7%, home value 37.1%, gap -6.4%Hilton Head Island, SC: rent 33.6%, home value 40.1%, gap -6.5%Nashville, TN: rent 18.8%, home value 25.4%, gap -6.6%Clarksville, TN: rent 23.3%, home value 30.2%, gap -6.9%Rockford, IL: rent 47.1%, home value 54.1%, gap -7.0%Raleigh, NC: rent 17.8%, home value 24.9%, gap -7.1%Macon, GA: rent 23.4%, home value 30.6%, gap -7.1%Panama City, FL: rent 15.1%, home value 22.3%, gap -7.2%Fayetteville, AR: rent 33.9%, home value 41.5%, gap -7.6%Hartford, CT: rent 36.4%, home value 44.0%, gap -7.6%Las Vegas, NV: rent 15.5%, home value 23.2%, gap -7.7%Knoxville, TN: rent 37.8%, home value 45.6%, gap -7.7%Rochester, NY: rent 33.4%, home value 41.8%, gap -8.4%Tyler, TX: rent 19.2%, home value 27.8%, gap -8.7%Syracuse, NY: rent 39.0%, home value 48.6%, gap -9.5%Kingston, NY: rent 26.9%, home value 36.7%, gap -9.8%Pinehurst, NC: rent 24.6%, home value 35.7%, gap -11.0%Durango, CO: rent 25.7%, home value 37.2%, gap -11.5%Gainesville, GA: rent 18.2%, home value 30.2%, gap -11.9%McAllen, TX: rent 16.6%, home value 30.7%, gap -14.1%AbileneJohnstownWillistonDurangoGainesvilleMcAllenZillow home-value change →Zillow asking-rent change →
The same exact start and end month is used on both axes. Missing endpoints remain absent; the two-percent near-pace band is descriptive and does not enter a score.
Decision table

The first 24 rows, with a path to the underlying market

319 total rows Download all rows
Largest exact five-year gaps between Zillow asking-rent and home-value change
Gap rankMarketRent startRent endRent changeHome value startHome value endValue changeGapOpen
1Abilene, TX2021-06 → 2026-06$1,035$1,93587.0%$175k$220k25.6%61.3%Open history
2Johnstown, PA2021-06 → 2026-06$633$86336.4%$133k$121k-9.2%45.5%Open history
3Williston, ND2021-06 → 2026-06$838$1,25650.0%$314k$356k13.3%36.7%Open history
4New Orleans, LA2021-06 → 2026-06$1,350$1,61719.8%$277k$265k-4.5%24.3%Open history
5Sumter, SC2021-06 → 2026-06$1,085$1,50438.6%$180k$209k16.0%22.6%Open history
6Redding, CA2021-06 → 2026-06$1,265$1,65030.4%$348k$377k8.5%21.8%Open history
7Jackson, MI2021-06 → 2026-06$783$1,12143.2%$189k$230k21.3%21.8%Open history
8Oak Harbor, WA2021-06 → 2026-06$1,530$2,05234.2%$576k$647k12.4%21.8%Open history
9Beaumont, TX2021-06 → 2026-06$1,039$1,29724.8%$182k$188k3.6%21.3%Open history
10San Francisco, CA2021-06 → 2026-06$2,647$3,30124.7%$1100k$1142k3.8%20.9%Open history
11Punta Gorda, FL2021-06 → 2026-06$1,491$1,89627.1%$279k$299k7.2%19.9%Open history
12Shreveport, LA2021-06 → 2026-06$1,091$1,35824.4%$177k$186k4.6%19.8%Open history
13Fairbanks, AK2021-06 → 2026-06$1,348$1,74429.3%$288k$316k9.6%19.7%Open history
14Ruston, LA2021-06 → 2026-06$1,106$1,40226.7%$210k$227k8.2%18.5%Open history
15Odessa, TX2021-06 → 2026-06$1,176$1,55131.9%$225k$256k13.8%18.1%Open history
16Tuscaloosa, AL2021-06 → 2026-06$1,098$1,48034.7%$190k$222k16.9%17.8%Open history
17Corvallis, OR2021-06 → 2026-06$1,310$1,80737.9%$468k$563k20.3%17.6%Open history
18Salinas, CA2021-06 → 2026-06$2,182$2,90633.2%$736k$855k16.1%17.0%Open history
19Midland, TX2021-06 → 2026-06$1,224$1,62032.3%$287k$331k15.3%16.9%Open history
20Florence, AL2021-06 → 2026-06$775$1,12244.7%$171k$219k27.9%16.9%Open history
21Harrisonburg, VA2021-06 → 2026-06$1,262$1,80743.2%$280k$354k26.5%16.7%Open history
22Chico, CA2021-06 → 2026-06$1,314$1,56018.7%$397k$405k2.1%16.6%Open history
23Boise City, ID2021-06 → 2026-06$1,575$1,87419.0%$485k$497k2.6%16.5%Open history
24Columbia, MO2021-06 → 2026-06$956$1,41547.9%$247k$327k32.3%15.7%Open history

The visible table is intentionally limited for reading. The CSV contains every row that passes the printed inclusion rule.

Reproduce the screen

Inclusion first, interpretation second.

Include every current RentMarker market area with direct Zillow ZORI and ZHVI observations in the latest month and the same month five years earlier. Classify a gap within two percentage points as near pace; place larger positive gaps in rent-ahead and larger negative gaps in home-value-ahead. Rank by rent change minus home-value change.

Methodology version: v11

Method

  1. Five-year rent change divides the ending direct monthly ZORI value by the same-month starting ZORI value and subtracts one.
  2. Five-year home-value change uses the identical calculation and months on direct ZHVI values.
  3. Growth gap subtracts home-value change from rent change; it is not a yield, forecast, appreciation estimate or property-level return.

Counter-signals

  • Current gross yield uses current rent and home-value levels, so identical growth gaps can coexist with very different starting yields.
  • Employment, supply, migration and local unit mix can move differently from either Zillow index.
  • A rent-ahead gap can close through slower rent, faster home values or both; the screen does not predict which path follows.

Limitations

  • ZHVI and ZORI are smoothed market indexes, not a matched property portfolio or observed acquisition-and-lease pair.
  • The changes are nominal and do not remove inflation, transaction costs, renovation, vacancy or operating expenses.
  • Only direct same-month endpoints enter; a missing endpoint remains unavailable rather than interpolated.
Move from market to deal

Use the study to narrow the question—not to skip underwriting.

Open a market for its supply, affordability, migration and risk context. Compare a deliberate substitute, then bring a real property price, rent and expenses into the stress test.

Explore market history Stress-test a dealOpen curated comparisons
Source vintages

Every input release used by this study

Release and retrieval dates stay visible so a reader can tell whether two measures describe the same moment.

cbsa delineationOMB/BLS delineation — metro geographyOMB July 2023 delineation · retrieved 2026-07-30zillow zhviZillow ZHVI — metro home valuesMetro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · retrieved 2026-07-26zillow zoriZillow ZORI — metro market rentsMetro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · retrieved 2026-07-26