Beaverhead County has a price-versus-cash-flow tension: Zillow’s county median home value was $407,068 in its 2026-06 observation, up 2.95% year over year, while recurring-rent evidence is unavailable. It warrants rent-led, flood-aware investigation for buyers able to obtain lease evidence and caution for those relying on appreciation. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 8.62% annually and 64.85% cumulatively over five years. It signals positive historical index movement, not a home value; its different vintage and method cannot be blended with Zillow’s result.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,072 per month is a payment standard, not market asking rent, and cannot fill that gap. The 0.67% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input, but assessed value, insurance, repairs, financing and turnover costs are not published. Without rent and property-level costs, net cash flow and price-to-rent support cannot be concluded.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS snapshot had 51 active listings. Its 70-day median marketing time and price-reduced share show visible seller concessions and marketing time; neither is a closed-sale price or standalone proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was net inward, and inbound movers reported higher average AGI than outbound movers, a directional household-demand clue rather than a leasing forecast. Investor purchase mortgages numbered 3 of 73 total purchases, suggesting limited non-owner presence. For 2025, QCEW covered-workplace employment rose 0.45%; it is not resident employment or unemployment. Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard. The modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.17%, a county-level modeled exposure rather than a dollar loss or property-specific insurance quote. Flood exposure, missing market rent and MLS-only price evidence limit conclusions about durable cash flow and resale liquidity. Next checks: lease and concession comps, closed-sale and pending-contract records, parcel tax assessments, flood zone and elevation, insurance quotes, and claims history. These test income, carrying costs and asset-specific resilience.