Montana rental market data

Across seven measured metros, annual home-value growth had a 2.3% median and ranged from 0.2% at the 10th percentile to 4.1% at the 90th. Rent growth had a 2.2% median and a narrower positive range of 1.5% to 4.3%. The supplied median rent-minus-price measure was negative 0.1 percentage point, so the statewide metro distribution does not show a broad rent-growth advantage over values.

Local results create the useful asymmetry. Great Falls recorded 5.2% rent growth against 3.7% value growth and a 4.7% gross yield. Missoula's rent grew 3.8% against 1.2% for values, but its gross yield was only 3.2%. Billings combined 3.5% rent growth, 2.3% value growth and a 4.2% gross yield. Screening therefore needs both momentum and entry yield rather than treating faster rent growth as sufficient.

The migration measure shows 33,425 people moving in and 30,348 moving out across 46 counties, for net migration of 3,081, or 2.8 people per 1,000 residents. Aggregate mover income also had a positive balance: $3,053,903 moving in versus $2,727,121 moving out, a supplied gap of $326,782.

Employment provides a counter-signal. Across seven measured metros, annual job growth had a negative 0.2% median, with a 10th-to-90th-percentile range from negative 1.3% to positive 0.3%. Kalispell was positive at 1.0%, while Bozeman and Helena were each down about 0.2%. Migration and employment are not contemporaneous measures, so the inflow cannot be treated as proof of current tenant demand in any one metro.

Among the three named entry-cost examples, Butte had a $292,640 home value, $1,334 monthly rent and 5.5% gross yield. Great Falls measured $345,114, $1,365 and 4.7%, while Billings measured $412,595, $1,444 and 4.2%. The lower entry price in Butte therefore coincided with the strongest gross income ratio in this group.

The tenant-income comparison points in the other direction. Rent equaled 25.9% of measured income in Butte, 24.2% in Great Falls and 22.5% in Billings. Price-to-income ratios were 4.74, 5.10 and 5.34, respectively. Butte's stronger gross yield does not come with the lowest tenant-income load, and none of these gross yields accounts for vacancy, operating expenses, taxes, insurance, repairs or financing.

Kalispell had 6.5 months of supply and a 72-day median resale time, compared with 4.7 months and 70 days in Bozeman and 4.3 months and 65 days in Helena. Price-drop shares were 19.5%, 17.6% and 21.1%, respectively. All three named markets were slower than the seven-metro median of 59 days, while the metro median price-drop share was 20.5%.

Permitting was also material: Bozeman recorded 1,346 permitted units, or 10.9 per 1,000 residents; Helena had 786, or 8.4 per 1,000; and Kalispell had 748, or 6.8 per 1,000. Permits are not completed units, and resale supply does not measure rental vacancy. The packet also supplies no metro sale-to-list observations, leaving one part of exit-price execution unmeasured.

Across all 56 counties, the median renter share was 27.6%, while the median single-family share was 77.9% and the median large-multifamily share was only 1.1%. Total housing vacancy had a 19.3% county median and ranged from 11.1% at the 10th percentile to 29.8% at the 90th. This ACS vacancy measure covers all housing and cannot be read as the share of long-term rentals available to tenants.

The median share of renters spending at least 30% of income on rent was 39.5%, reaching 50.0% at the 90th percentile. Musselshell County measured 61.5% rent burden despite a 14.9% renter share; Broadwater County measured 58.2% burden and a 12.2% renter share; Sanders County measured 56.2% burden and an 18.7% renter share. These county estimates identify affordability pressure, but they do not establish current rent-collection performance or lease-up speed.

The Apartment List statewide recent-lease rent measure was $1,109, up from $1,102, or 0.6%. The corresponding national measure fell 1.1%, leaving Montana's growth rate 1.7 percentage points higher. This is a direct state rent series and should be interpreted separately from Zillow's metro market-rent measures.

The packet's Apartment List vacancy and time-on-market figures are national rather than Montana-specific. National vacancy was 7.2%, up about 0.1 percentage point, and national time on market increased from 28 to 30 days. Because those are separate series with different coverage and no Montana observations are supplied, they cannot establish whether the state's rental vacancy or listing time moved with its recent-lease rent.