Butte, MT
Butte is a selective-investigation market, best suited to buyers who can accept modest current yield and underwrite tenant demand conservatively.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Butte is a selective-investigation market, best suited to buyers who can accept modest current yield and underwrite tenant demand conservatively. Buyers dependent on strong employment growth or rapid rent gains should avoid it. The $292,640 median value and 5.47% gross yield provide a workable starting point, but not enough cushion to dismiss operating costs or vacancy.
Opportunity lies in negotiability and positive migration: inventory is at 4.8 months, median time on market is 59 days, 20.97% of listings show price drops, and net migration was 112 households. Yet employment fell 0.24% while asking rent rose only 2.22%; meanwhile, home values increased 4.85%. That mix favors disciplined acquisition rather than paying for momentum.
Climate metrics are the clearest defensive signal, with a 0.0906% annual building-value loss ratio, though inland flood is the dominant hazard. Listed inventory and market time indicate buyers have room to compare properties. Investigate only after property-level flood exposure, achievable rent, and renovation needs are verified.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
What is the headline acquisition yield?
Is household migration positive, and are inbound movers higher-income?
What water-related risk is identified?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Butte as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 46 | 30% | 13.80 |
| Rent trend | 31 | 25% | 7.75 |
| Affordability | 41 | 15% | 6.15 |
| Supply pressure | 26 | 15% | 3.90 |
| Climate risk | 92 | 15% | 13.80 |
| Published score | 45 | ||
LAUS employment declined 0.24% year over year -> a job-growth demand case is not supported by the record.
Asking rent increased 2.22% year over year against a 5.47% gross yield -> underwrite from current income rather than aggressive rent gains.
Rent is 25.91% of median income, while home value is 4.74 times income -> renter affordability looks more favorable than buyer affordability.
Inventory is 4.8 months, median time on market is 59 days, and 20.97% of listings have price drops -> buyers have evidence of choice and negotiation room.
A 92 climate component and 0.0906% annual loss ratio, with inland flood dominant -> aggregate climate exposure is the strongest component, but water risk remains property-specific.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- LAUS employment declined 0.24% year over year, leaving no measured job growth to support a stronger demand case.
- Asking-rent growth of 2.22% trailed home-value growth of 4.85%, an unfavorable spread for buyers relying on income growth to justify current acquisition prices.
- A 4.8-month inventory, 59 median days on market, and a 20.97% price-drop share show buyer leverage but also potential resale friction.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Butte
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butte, MT (Target) | 45 | $293k | $1,334 | 5.5% | ▼ 0.2% |
| Lock Haven, PA | 64 | $204k | $909 | 5.3% | ▼ 0.2% |
| Coos Bay, OR | 48 | $355k | $1,580 | 5.3% | ▼ 0.1% |
| Mountain Home, ID | 44 | $361k | $1,565 | 5.2% | ▼ 0.5% |
| Pullman, WA | 60 | $334k | $1,515 | 5.4% | ▼ 0.5% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |