Bozeman, MT
Bozeman is a selective-investigation market, best suited to buyers who can tolerate a low current return and test asset-level pricing carefully; yield-focused or highly leveraged buyers should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Bozeman is a selective-investigation market, best suited to buyers who can tolerate a low current return and test asset-level pricing carefully; yield-focused or highly leveraged buyers should avoid it. The median home value is $707,777, while gross yield is 3.79% and price-to-income is 7.57.
The opportunity is modest rent resilience alongside softer acquisition conditions: asking rent rose 1.01% year over year as home values fell 0.6%, and homes took 70 days to sell. Positive net migration of 347 households and movers' $6,171 income gap support demand, but employment fell 0.16%, so that support is not broad-based.
Supply is the central risk: 1,346 total permits sit alongside 4.7 months of inventory, indicating both a development pipeline and room to negotiate. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, though the recorded climate loss ratio is small. Investigate only where achievable rent, insurance terms, flood exposure and nearby development preserve the deal after conservative underwriting.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
Is household migration positive, and what is the income profile of movers?
What evidence indicates buyer negotiating room?
What is the main property hazard?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Bozeman as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 38 | 30% | 11.40 |
| Rent trend | 17 | 25% | 4.25 |
| Affordability | 27 | 15% | 4.05 |
| Supply pressure | 6 | 15% | 0.90 |
| Climate risk | 58 | 15% | 8.70 |
| Published score | 29 | ||
CES employment fell 0.16% year over year -> near-term tenant-demand support from jobs is weak.
Asking rent rose 1.01% while gross yield is 3.79% -> rent momentum is positive, but the current income return is thin.
Rent is 28.7% of median income and price is 7.57 times income -> renting is more accessible than buying, while acquisition pricing remains demanding.
The permit rate is 10.85 per thousand and inventory is 4.7 months -> buyers have negotiating room and landlords face meaningful supply competition.
The climate loss ratio is 0.1294%, with inland flood dominant -> property-level flood and insurance review remains necessary despite the small recorded loss share.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- A 3.79% gross yield leaves limited room for operating costs and financing before net cash flow is assessed.
- Employment fell 0.16% year over year, leaving the market without a positive job-growth signal.
- The combination of 1,346 permits and 4.7 months of supply makes rental and resale competition a material underwriting risk.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Bozeman
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bozeman, MT (Target) | 29 | $708k | $2,237 | 3.8% | ▼ 0.2% |
| Bend, OR | 37 | $672k | $2,205 | 3.9% | ▼ 0.4% |
| Durango, CO | 31 | $692k | $2,019 | 3.5% | ▲ 0.1% |
| Oak Harbor, WA | 59 | $647k | $2,052 | 3.8% | ▲ 0.8% |
| Mount Vernon, WA | 53 | $590k | $2,143 | 4.4% | ▲ 0.5% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |