Yellowstone County, MT

Yellowstone County presents a price-to-rent and carrying-cost tension: Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value of $403,226 against measured median asking rent of $1,444 per month produces the supplied 4.30% gross yield before costs. Zillow value growth was 2.09% year over year. This is a county for investors who can verify property-level expenses and tenant demand; those requiring a demonstrated net return should remain cautious because the visible gross spread is modest.

The rent is measured market asking rent, not HUD policy data. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,417, a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate, so it cannot substitute for market rent or generate yield. The effective property-tax rate is 0.81%, providing a county-level carrying-cost reference for a gross—not net—yield. The supplied record has no insurance, maintenance, vacancy, financing, or operating-expense data.

Realtor.com’s separate MLS listing snapshot shows lower median asking prices, fewer active listings, longer marketing time, and seller price reductions, alongside a 54.58% pending-to-active ratio. These are listing-market measures: asking prices, visible supply, marketing duration, and seller concessions—not closed-sale prices or standalone buyer-demand proof. QCEW’s 2025 annual series indicates nearly unchanged covered workplace employment but higher covered-worker wages; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Tax-return movers netted 306 households, although entrants’ average AGI was $810 lower than leavers’; that weakens a simple affluent-inflow reading. Nonoccupant mortgages numbered 188 of 2,102 purchases, confirming participation but not competition for a particular asset.

Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.10%; it identifies exposure rather than a site-specific insurance bill. FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 1.18%, directionally consistent with Zillow’s positive change but neither a home value nor a rate to average with Zillow because method and observation vintage differ. Missing unit-level flood mapping and insurance quotes, lease and turnover histories, financing terms, and submarket closed-sale comparables prevent a net-cash-flow, resilience-cost, or acquisition-value conclusion.