Burnet County is a carry-cost and hazard diligence case, not a simple price-recovery story. In Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation, the median home value was $433,840, down 2.34% year over year; FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI was down 3.51%. These are separate vintages and methods, but both indicate recent weakening. FHFA’s index is not a home value, and neither reading establishes a sale price. Buyers who can validate property-level flood exposure, insurance and operating costs should investigate; those underwriting appreciation or county averages alone should be cautious.
Measured median asking rent is $1,681 per month, up 0.47%, and the supplied gross yield is 4.65% before costs. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard rather than an estimate of asking rent, so it cannot replace the measured market-rent input or generate another yield. The 1.06% effective property-tax rate and $3,639 median annual tax must be included in carrying-cost review. Vacancy, insurance, maintenance, financing, unit condition and assessment detail are not published, preventing a net-yield conclusion.
More tax-return households moved in than out, and average income of inbound movers exceeded outbound movers by $35,486. That combination warrants submarket checks on tenant and buyer composition, not a conclusion about current renter demand. Investors accounted for 66 of 851 purchase mortgages, a calculated 7.76%; this identifies a defined non-occupant mortgage segment, not cash buyers or all transactions. QCEW’s annual data show covered jobs at county workplaces and average weekly wage increased. Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole county economy or resident employment.
The dominant hazard is inland flood, and the modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.18% of building value; it is a model result, not a property-specific loss estimate. Realtor.com MLS listing price, active-listing, days-on-market, reduction-share and pending-ratio figures are not published for the supplied inventory period. Their absence prevents assessment of visible supply, asking prices, marketing time and seller concessions; even if published, they would not establish closed-sale prices or buyer demand by themselves. Closed-sale and property-level flood, insurance, lease and expense evidence are also missing. Those gaps prevent conclusions on liquidity, net income and asset-specific resilience.