Texas rental market data

The measured metro medians show a rent-led split: home values rose 0.35% year over year while rents rose 1.19%. The supplied rent-minus-price figure, also a calculated difference between those medians, is 0.84 percentage points. That spread is not universal: price growth ranged from -3.5% to 2.8%, while rent growth ranged from -2.9% to 5.6%.

Local examples reinforce the need for deal-level validation. Abilene recorded 7.0% price growth and 41.4% rent growth; Kingsville recorded 2.8% and 9.6%; and Lufkin recorded -0.6% and 7.4%, respectively. These are measured market examples, not state averages, and the rent gap should be tested against current occupancy and achievable rents.

Across 44 metros with months-of-supply and days-on-market readings, the medians were 5.3 months and 58 days. The measured price-drop median was 29.1% across 44 metros, and the sale-to-list median was 96.4% across 39. The ranges were broad: 3.4 to 10.0 months of supply and 42 to 97 days on market. That combination argues for underwriting exit liquidity locally rather than relying on the state distribution.

Abilene is a counter-signal to the slower-market cases, with 1.5 months of supply and 24 days on market. Eagle Pass had 10.0 months of supply and 167 days on market, while Jacksonville had 5.8 months, 135 days and a 93.9% sale-to-list ratio. The same state therefore contains both relatively quick resale conditions and markets where pricing or timing may require more flexibility.

Median metro job growth was 0.8% year over year across 48 metros, with a range from -0.9% to 2.1%. County records show 56,900 net migrants and 1.88 net migrants per 1,000 residents, with migration measured in 245 counties. Those readings support checking employment and household movement in the target locality, but county totals do not identify which metro, neighborhood or renter segment receives the flow.

The selected markets show why yield and employment should be screened together. Stephenville posted 4.4% job growth with a 3.3% gross yield, while Borger posted 4.0% job growth with an 8.7% gross yield. Bay City also had 3.9% job growth but a 5.4% gross yield. Job growth is therefore a demand input, not a substitute for local rent, price and tenant-income checks.

The measured metro rent median was $1,339.50, compared with a $1,167 median two-bedroom FMR. The rent-versus-FMR ratio median was 1.135, which is a calculated 13.5% above 1.0; the distribution ranged from 86.8% to 143.4% of FMR. Median rent-to-income was 24.6%, with a range of 20.3% to 31.5%, so affordability and rent-standard support differ by market.

The metro gross-yield median was 6.58%, ranging from 5.48% to 8.59%, while the price-to-income median was 3.69, ranging from 2.92 to 4.93. Kingsville's measured gross yield was 11.51% with rent-to-income of 27.92%; Abilene's was 10.56% with rent-to-income of 34.48%; and Plainview's was 9.33% with rent-to-income of 21.56%. These are gross, market-level measures and do not establish net operating cash flow.

Among 243 counties with measured price growth, the median was -0.34% year over year. Among 71 counties with measured rent growth, the median was 0.89%. The calculated rent-minus-price difference is therefore 1.23 percentage points, while county price growth ranged from -4.9% to 5.9% and rent growth ranged from -2.3% to 5.9%. This is a broader and more uneven version of the metro-level rent-price split.

A separate FHFA series provides a counter-signal: its county annual-appreciation median was 2.09%, and its five-year median was 49.11%, across 171 and 174 measured counties respectively. The disagreement with the county price-growth median indicates that measurement coverage and series construction matter; it does not resolve which measure applies to a specific property or establish a future appreciation path.

The packet's mutually exclusive leading-hazard context reports 212 counties labeled inland flood, 19 hurricane, 11 wildfire and 7 hail. These are county-level leading-hazard labels, not parcel-level exposure. County climate-loss ratios had a 0.13% median, from 0.09% at the tenth percentile to 0.21% at the ninetieth percentile. A Red River County example was 0.83%, materially above that measured distribution, while Matagorda County was 0.38%.

Effective property-tax rates had a 1.18% county median, ranging from 0.89% to 1.61%, and median taxes ranged from $1,104.90 to $3,939.80 around a $1,897 median. El Paso County's measured tax rate was 2.03% with a $3,660 median tax; Red River County's rate was 1.01% and Matagorda County's was 1.35%. The packet does not include property-specific insurance premiums, deductibles, flood-zone status or a final tax bill, so these figures are screening inputs rather than complete expense estimates.