In June 2026, 78704 presents a split current-and-longer-path rent reading: Zillow ZORI is $1,864 per month, down 1.4% from a year earlier, although its five-year history remains positive. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not an identical USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market benchmark rather than a lease quote for a specified building, bedroom count, or utility package. The current decline describes the index’s recent direction; it does not predict the next rent move or determine terms for an individual listing.
Looking backward, exact same-month annualized ZORI changes are −1.4% over one year, −2.0% over three years, and +1.1% over five years. The short and medium horizons break from the longer positive path, establishing a cooling pattern rather than simply extending prior appreciation. The measurement set is complete at 100% coverage, which supports the descriptive record. Monthly-return movement annualizes to 2.8% variability; that dispersion makes a single current index reading useful but not definitive for a property. Separately, the record’s largest peak-to-trough decline is 8.9%, showing that the path has had a meaningful retreat. Transparent national discovery ranks place momentum at 2,753, stability at 1,296, and the balanced measure at 2,537 among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The local bedroom ladder adds sizing structure without creating bedroom-rent observations. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,484 for a studio, $1,572 for one bedroom, $1,864 for two, $2,362 for three, and $2,778 for four. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,852; it is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. In a different evidence universe, the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS five-year survey reports $1,801 median gross rent among occupied renter homes, with selected utilities included. The current ZORI is 3.5% above that survey median, a gap that can reflect the distinct definitions and periods rather than a conflict between sources.
An arithmetic affordability screen turns the monthly index into a household-level benchmark but cannot determine eligibility or advise an applicant. At a 30% rent-to-income threshold, the current monthly index corresponds to $74,560 in annual income. That is below the ZCTA’s $106,897 median household income, and the same arithmetic represents 20.9% of that median before household variation. ACS nevertheless reports that 37.0% of renter households pay at least 30% of income toward gross rent. This is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes, not proof of any unit’s tenant cost or burden. The ZCTA contains 30,002 housing units, with a 6.9% vacancy rate; 1,070 vacancies are classified for rent. Aggregate vacancy likewise does not establish availability, condition, or terms for a particular unit.
Against wider rent context, the ZIP’s index exceeds the Austin city context rent of $1,615, the Travis County context rent of $1,649, and the Austin–Round Rock–Georgetown, TX metro context rent of $1,653. Each scope matters: the city, county, and metro figures are context only, not substitutes for ZIP ZORI or matched-ZCTA ACS results. The comparison confirms that the ZIP benchmark sits above the three wider rent measures, yet it does not identify why areas differ or what any particular apartment commands. Its higher renter share and lower surveyed burden share than the city and county add a second aggregate contrast, but geography, household mix, and source definitions bar a property-level conclusion.
At the June 30, 2026 endpoint, resale data independently show a softer for-sale setting, but they are a direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation rather than rental transactions. Redfin records a $833,562 median sold price, down 7.3% year over year, across 200 homes sold; median marketing time is 55 days. The ZIP’s resale inventory count is 446 homes and months of supply is 6.8. Sale-to-list evidence remains in this same for-sale universe: the average is 96.2% of list, 8.8% of sales close above list, and 20.3% go off market within two weeks. The price decline and below-list average confirm the ZORI’s cooling direction, while completed transactions and the reported marketing time show a recorded resale flow. None of these signals measures rent paid, leasing volume, or an individual asset’s economics.
Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s direct median sold price produces a 2.68% cross-source screening ratio. It simply juxtaposes an asking-rent index and a resale statistic; no property matching, operating costs, financing, taxes, condition, or lease-term inputs appear in the calculation, so it cannot describe property economics. Its narrow role is to set the rent benchmark beside the resale price measure. That framing sharpens a second tension: the ZIP index is above the named city, county, and metro rent contexts even as both its recent rent history and its resale price change cool. Neither pattern resolves affordability for a particular household or forecasts the next market movement.
Every current figure retains a scope limit. ZORI does not identify quoted rent, concessions, availability, utilities, or signed lease payments for a specific home. ACS has survey uncertainty and represents the ZCTA, a statistical area rather than an exact delivery ZIP; HUD standards are administrative; and resale aggregates are not rental comparables. Concrete property-level checks cover the exact bedroom count, unit and building type, advertised versus executed rent, lease term, utility treatment, concessions, condition, availability date, and, for a sale comparison, property type, transaction timing, list history, and condition. Those records test fit with the source measures rather than overwrite them. The open question is whether the individual property’s documented terms match the appropriate benchmark, not whether an aggregate ZIP statistic can stand in for it.