Travis County has a clear underwriting tension: Zillow's 2026-06 median home value is $476,400, down 5.13%, while median asking rent is $1,649, down 2.01%. Gross yield is 4.15% before costs. That invites entry-price investigation, but cash-flow buyers should be cautious because rent has not held while price fell. FHFA's repeat-transaction HPI is a check, not a home value: its 2025 change was down 1.70%, versus a cumulative five-year gain of 31.54%. The vintages and methods differ, so do not combine them with Zillow.
Measured market rent is distinct from HUD's two-bedroom FMR: $1,852 is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and the market-rent-to-FMR ratio is 89%. The stated yield therefore uses market rent, not FMR. An effective property-tax rate of 1.48% and median annual tax of $7,727 add carrying-cost pressure. A net yield cannot be computed because property-level assessment, vacancy, insurance, repairs, management, financing and other operating costs are not supplied.
Demand evidence is mixed. The supplied QCEW record shows annual covered employment growing 3.27% and average weekly wages growing 4.92%. Those are workplace covered-job and covered-worker measures, not resident employment or unemployment; Professional and business services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Net migration was +872, but the average-income AGI gap was -$4,251 for incoming versus outgoing movers. That positive count alongside a negative income balance supports checking submarket tenant depth rather than assuming broad demand. Investor mortgages were 9.79% of 14,196 purchases. This establishes participation, not buyer demand, and does not show whether investors are crowding out occupants.
Risk diligence is central. The modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.12%, but inland flood is the dominant hazard; that model is not a parcel flood determination, repair budget or insurance quote. Realtor.com listing-market fields are not published, so asking-price positioning, visible supply, marketing time, seller concessions and pending-to-active conditions cannot be assessed; those fields would not be closed-sale proof anyway. Before underwriting, obtain parcel flood-zone and elevation data, insurance terms, property-level taxes and expenses, lease comps, condition, and closed-sale comps. Until then, this is an entry-price investigation with a thin pre-cost yield, not a validated cash-flow case.