Williamson County, TX

Williamson County presents a reset-versus-income case: falling values and rents leave a published pre-cost yield that must carry taxes and flood exposure. At Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation, median home value was $404,512, down 6.2% year over year, while median asking rent was $1,685, down 1.27%. Published gross yield was 5% before costs. Investors seeking cash flow should investigate expenses and lease evidence; buyers relying on appreciation or operating margins should be cautious.

HUD’s $1,852 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent, so it cannot replace the measured market rent or create another yield. The $7,205 median annual property tax and 1.61% effective property-tax rate are material carrying-cost inputs against the stated pre-cost yield. Inland flood is the dominant hazard; the modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.10%. That modeled county-level loss measure aligns with the hazard but does not identify a parcel’s inundation, insurance premium, or deductible.

Demand evidence is constructive but mixed. QCEW records 238,248 annual-average covered jobs at county workplaces, up 2.56%, and identifies Trade, transportation, and utilities as the largest disclosed private supersector; these are not resident employment or a forecast. Net tax-return migration was positive, and incoming movers had higher average AGI than outgoing movers, supporting an income-quality screen rather than proving tenancy demand. Realtor.com’s MLS listing evidence shows lower asking prices, slightly fewer active listings, longer marketing time, and a sizable price-reduced share; it is not closed-sale evidence or proof of buyer demand. Investor purchase mortgages represented 9.21% of 12,528 purchases, indicating a visible but non-dominant buyer cohort.

FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI declined 1.04%, directionally consistent with Zillow’s decline but from a different vintage and measure; the index is not a dollar home value. The record does not publish insurance quotes, flood-zone or parcel-elevation data, vacancy, lease concessions, operating costs, closed-sale comps, or debt terms. Those gaps prevent underwriting net yield, insured flood exposure, sale-price support, and debt coverage. Next checks are address-level flood and insurance review, tax assessment and appeal status, executed-rent and vacancy comps, and closed-sale/pending-contract verification.