The immediate tension is visible in the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not in rental transactions. Median sold price in the ZIP was $397,790, down 4.2% year over year, while 241 homes sold and the median marketing time was 58 days. Inventory stood at 330 homes, with 4.2 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 97.4%, and 9.0% of sales closed above list. Those resale signals show a price pullback and below-list average execution, which broadly confirms the cooling rent backdrop, but they do not establish that any particular rental property has weakened or become easier to lease.
At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow ZORI for this ZIP was $1,682 per month. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level measure or a median for one bedroom count. The exact same-month history showed a 1.2% decline over one year and a 3.6% annualized decline over three years, while the five-year annualized change remained marginally positive at 0.2%. Recent direction therefore confirms the cooling classification over the shorter path while breaking from the nearly flat positive longer path. Monthly rent returns showed 2.6% annualized variability, while the maximum historical drawdown reached 12.5%, so one current index reading deserves more confidence as a dated snapshot than as a durable trend. Coverage was complete across 138 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,762 for momentum, 873 for stability, and 2,349 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger, and none are forecasts or investment recommendations.
The supplied bedroom ladder converts the ZIP-wide ZORI into modelled estimates by scaling it with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The resulting modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $1,339 for a studio, $1,419 for one bedroom, $1,682 for two bedrooms, $2,132 for three bedrooms, and $2,507 for four bedrooms. These are not measured bedroom rents. The corresponding HUD FMR/SAFMR administrative standards are $1,474, $1,562, $1,852, $2,347, and $2,760. HUD figures are bedroom-specific program standards, not asking rents, so the comparison is useful for a consistent sizing framework but cannot substitute for current unit-level asking prices.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,938, with a reported margin of error, for occupied renter homes. Gross rent includes selected utilities, making it conceptually different from Zillow’s asking-rent index; the ZORI is lower, but that gap is not evidence of a bargain or of an overstatement in either source. The same ACS survey places median household income at $122,680, also with a reported margin of error. Applying the arithmetic 30% required-income screen to current ZORI produces $67,280 in annual income and a 16.5% asking-rent-to-income screen. Separately, 45.5% of surveyed renter households were rent burdened at or above that threshold. The screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and the burden share does not determine affordability for a specific household or listing.
Housing-stock evidence adds an important caution to the rent and burden readings. The ZCTA contained 25,598 housing units, with a 5.6% overall vacancy rate; 703 units were vacant for rent. That rent-vacant count is a category within survey vacancy data, not proof that a particular building has availability, concessions, or weak leasing. Stock also leaned toward 18,693 single-family units, alongside 3,941 units in large multifamily structures. This mix helps describe the survey-area housing base but does not identify the type, age, condition, or utility treatment embedded in the current ZORI basket or in an available rental unit.
Wider geography provides reference points rather than substitutes for the ZIP measure. Round Rock citywide context rent was $1,713, Williamson County countywide context rent was $1,685, and the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro-wide context rent was $1,653. The ZIP index sits near the county reading, below the city reading, and above the metro reading, but those comparisons remain broader-context benchmarks. They should not be blended with the direct ZIP history, ACS ZCTA survey results, HUD standards, or the ZIP’s resale observation to create a single implied market rent.
The label 78665 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match in this packet. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, which matters when comparing ZIP asking-rent data with ACS household and housing-stock estimates. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price produces a 5.1% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, or expected return because it excludes property-specific operating costs, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy experience, lease terms, and the mismatch between an all-rental-type asking-rent index and a resale median.
The evidence supports a bounded reading: recent ZIP asking-rent history and resale pricing both moved downward, while the long rent history remains nearly flat on an annualized basis and the resale series describes a different transaction universe. Before applying these figures to a property, a reader would need the current advertised rent, bedroom count, lease length, included utilities, concessions, availability date, condition, and building type. A resale comparison would additionally need confirmation that sold homes match the property’s type and transaction timing. What remains unverified without those property-level facts is whether the current unit’s terms resemble the index, the ACS survey household, the HUD ladder, or the resale sample.