Fort Bend County, TX

Fort Bend County presents a split underwriting case: Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value fell 2.2% and median asking rent fell 0.37%, yet supplied gross yield is 6.24% before costs. FHFA’s separate 2025 repeat-transaction index rose 5.96% annually. Different vintages and methods prevent one blended growth rate: FHFA challenges Zillow’s latest direction but is not a home value. Cash-flow buyers should investigate realized rents; appreciation-dependent buyers should be cautious. The thesis is selective: income screening is workable, but pricing and demand need validation.

At $1,991 a month, median asking rent is 26.6% above HUD’s $1,573 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent, a calculation from the supplied ratio. That gap is not achievable-rent proof: FMR is a payment standard, while market rent is asking rent. Price and rent softness weaken confidence that the gross yield will hold. The 1.86% effective property-tax rate and $6,965 median tax are material carrying costs. Because yield is gross, the record lacks net yield after insurance, repairs, vacancy, management, financing, and other expenses. Use a property-specific expense build.

Demand evidence is mixed. QCEW shows annual covered workplace employment and wages growing, but it is not resident employment or unemployment; Trade, transportation, and utilities is only the largest disclosed private supersector. Realtor.com MLS evidence shows more visible supply and seller concessions, but listings, days on market, and pending ratios are not closed sales or proof of demand. Tax-return flows show 27,608 households in versus 24,222 out, net +3,386, while average AGI was $81,110 incoming versus $85,420 outgoing. Investors were 1,082 of 12,647 purchases, or 8.56%, meaningful to inspect but not the dominant buyer base in this record.

Inland flood is the dominant hazard; modeled climate loss is 0.17% of building value per year. This is not a property-specific insurance quote or flood determination. The record lacks flood-zone and elevation details, insurance terms, leases, vacancy, operating expenses, financing, closed-sale comps, and property-level assessments. Those gaps prevent a net-yield conclusion, confirmed achievable rent, and defensible exit valuation. Next checks are property-specific flood and insurance review, lease and expense verification, and closed-sale comparison.