Austin County presents a price-direction conflict: buyers relying on appreciation need caution and should investigate comparable sales. Zillow’s county median home value was $429,665 in 2026-06, down 1.32% year over year, while the FHFA repeat-transaction HPI rose 2.17% in annual 2025. Different methods and vintages make these measures a cross-check, not one growth rate or an appraisal.
Housing economics show a measurable entry yield but a material carrying-cost question. Median asking market rent is $1,652 per month and the published gross yield is 4.61% before costs. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,095 per month; it is a payment standard, not a market-rent estimate. The effective property-tax rate is 1.16%, with median annual tax of $3,433, a relevant carrying cost against the home-value and rent measures. Operating expenses, insurance, financing, vacancy, and repair data are not published, preventing net-yield or cash-flow calculation.
Tax-return movers show net inbound migration of 230 households, and incoming movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $8,484. This is a compositional indicator, not proof of tenant demand. Investor purchases were 21 of 419, indicating limited non-occupant participation within recorded purchases but not rental absorption. QCEW annual covered employment at county workplaces grew 2.03% in 2025. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy; QCEW is neither resident employment nor unemployment data.
Modeled climate loss is 0.10% of building value per year, consistent with inland flood as the dominant hazard, but it does not identify parcel-level loss, insurability, or flood exposure. Realtor.com MLS listing-market figures are not published in this record, including listing prices, active supply, marketing time, reductions, and pending activity. Their absence prevents a current reading of visible supply and seller concessions; they would not substitute for closed-sale comparables. Next checks are parcel flood history and elevation, insurance quotes, property-specific tax bills, lease comparables, and recent sales.